Expected Fantasy Points: 2024 TE Regression Candidates (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to the third article of our series, identifying regression candidates using the metric Expected Fantasy Points. Over the last couple of weeks, we highlighted the most likely regression candidates for the running back and wide receiver positions. In this article, we will shift our focus to the tight ends.

If you followed our Expected Points series in the DFS pass, you already know that volume and usage matter significantly for fantasy football. Since Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP) is a measure of usage, it highlights the most valuable players for our lineups. However, players rarely match their expected point value as various factors will impact their production on the field. Injuries, play calling, quarterback play, or even offensive line performance could either boost or decrease their efficiency. With that being said, how do we measure efficiency for fantasy football and why does it matter? One metric we can use is Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE). In short, FPOE is the difference between a player’s Expected Fantasy Point value and their actual fantasy production. 

For example, we can analyze Travis Kelce’s production based on his usage and efficiency, finishing the season as the TE2 in half-PPR points per game (11.53). The total value of his opportunities equated to 11.17 Expected Fantasy Points, which represents the value of an average tight end with the same type of usage as Kelce. The difference between those two values would be his efficiency at +0.4 FPOE.

Keep in mind that Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE) will fluctuate from week to week. However, it can be a useful metric for identifying tight ends who are likely to regress the following season. In fact, since 2013, a majority (73.7%) of tight ends who played at least eight games experienced regression in their FPOE year over year. Generally, players who performed efficiently experienced a decline in their FPOE (Fantasy Points Over Expectation) the following season. Coincidently, Kelce is a perfect example of this, scoring +2.2 fantasy points over expected in 2022. As I highlighted above, his efficiency regressed in 2023, scoring much closer to his usage value this past season. Conversely, if a player underperformed, we can anticipate an improvement in their efficiency this year. So by identifying tight ends with the highest and lowest FPOE, we can pinpoint potential regression candidates for the upcoming season.

For a more detailed breakdown of my Expected Fantasy Points model and how the metric is calculated, check out my series primer from the 2023 season. 

Recapping the 2023 Season

Charted above are the top 40 tight ends in half-PPR scoring from the 2023 season. Keep in mind that Expected Fantasy Points (on the x-axis) is the more predictive metric. As a result, the league-winning tight ends are located in the right quadrants of this chart. 

The y-axis represents Fantasy Points Over Expected. Tight ends above the horizontal dotted line are considered the most efficient and may experience negative regression. Players who fall below the dotted line underperformed relative to usage and have the potential for improved efficiency, or positive regression.

Before we dive into our regression candidates, below are a few stats and observations from this past season:

• T.J. Hockenson had a career year in his first full season with the Vikings, continuing where he left off after a productive 2022 season. Hockenson led all tight ends in target share (23.9%), while also ranking as the TE4 in air yards share (23.4%). In addition, among tight ends with a minimum of 50 targets, he was also the TE1 in targets per snap (16.1%), highlighting his elite ability to earn targets in a high-powered offense. Unfortunately, Hockenson will likely start the season limited by his knee injury, potentially starting the year on the PUP list. And as Matthew Betz outlined in our UDK, we should not expect him to be fully healthy until later in the year.
• Only three tight ends averaged double-digit expected fantasy points (usage value) last season: T.J. Hockenson, Travis Kelce…and Evan Engram. Engram set career highs across the board, operating as the top target for Trevor Lawrence. He led all Jaguars receivers with a 23.6% target share, averaging 13.5% targets per snap. With an even clearer path to volume this season, Engram projects to be one of the best values at his ADP.
• Trey McBride had an impressive breakout season after Zach Ertz was sidelined with a quad injury. Especially once Kyler Murray returned from injured reserve, McBride was the TE4 in Expected Fantasy Points (10.6), averaging an elite 25.2% target share. While Marvin Harrison Jr. will undoubtedly be a focal point of the offense going forward, McBride should still retain top-five upside at the tight end position.
• Even though his snaps fluctuated throughout the season, Dalton Kincaid displayed significant upside when given the opportunity. Among tight ends with a minimum of 50 targets, Kincaid was the TE7 in targets per snap, earning opportunities at a 13% rate. The main hurdle for TE1 production will be his limited time on the field as he continues to share snaps with Dawson Knox. However, since Stefon Diggs has been traded to Houston, Josh Allen will need to depend more on his tight ends, which could result in consistent opportunities for Kincaid.
• The teams that led the league in tight end usage (expected fantasy points) in 2023 were the New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, and Minnesota Vikings. It’s surprising to see the Falcons on this list, considering neither of their TEs finished within the top 12. We can thank Arthur Smith for that, keeping both Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts involved in the offense. On the other hand, the Vikings relied heavily on T.J. Hockenson, accounting for nearly 72% of the team’s total usage value at the tight end position. As he recovers from his knee injury, keep an eye on Josh Oliver and Robert Tonyan as both players try to fill the massive void left behind by Hockenson in the Vikings’ offense. 
• On the other hand, the Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, and Denver Broncos were at the very bottom of the list in total tight end usage. Keep that in mind when drafting Mike Gesicki and Jonnu Smith this season. While they have the opportunity to be the TE1 for their respective teams, their opportunities will likely be limited as both offenses will continue to rely on their wide receivers to produce.

Positive Regression Candidates

Coincidentally, Taysom Hill was on this list last offseason as a negative regression candidate, scoring nearly +2.5 Fantasy Points Over Expected in 2022. Naturally, his efficiency regressed to the mean in 2023 (-0.97 FPOE). On a positive note, his usage improved significantly, ranking as the TE6 with 8.9 xFP. In fact, Hill’s target share improved to 7.2%, while also accounting for nearly 18% of the team’s total carries. As long as Hill remains involved in the rushing and receiving game, he will remain a viable option at the tight end position. And considering Juwan Johnson could be limited to start the season, Hill is primed for another productive year with the Saints.

Tyler Conklin was the fourth-most inefficient tight end last season, scoring nearly a -1.0 Fantasy Points Over Expected. A significant reason for his inefficiency was his lack of end-zone production, failing to score despite receiving 88 total opportunities in 2023. Regardless, I expect his efficiency to significantly improve this year as Aaron Rodgers is set to return in Week 1. And with a much more improved offensive ecosystem, Conklin could surprise fantasy managers with several TE1 performances throughout the season. 

Kyle Pitts may be the most obvious regression candidate for the tight end position. Not only did he have to share snaps and opportunities with Jonnu Smith but he also had to play with two of the most inaccurate quarterbacks in the league. For context, Desmond Ridder was the QB28 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (-1.6) in 2023, while Taylor Heinicke was even worse at QB42 (-5.7). As a result, it should not come as a surprise that Pitts finished the year as the TE37 in catchable target rate (64%). On the other end of the spectrum, Kirk Cousins was QB6 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (+4.4), presenting a significant upgrade over any quarterback the Falcons have had over the last two seasons. With a new coaching staff and an improvement in quarterback play, Pitts should see his usage and efficiency drastically improve this upcoming season.

Negative Regression Candidates

George Kittle has been one of the most efficient tight ends in recent history, averaging over +2.0 Fantasy Points Over Expected in each of the last five seasons. Naturally, we should expect his efficiency to regress to the mean. However, Kittle continues to defy regression year after year. Part of that is driven by Kyle Shanahan’s play calling as he continues to leverage Kittle as a deep threat and in open space, leading all tight ends in yards per route run (2.3) and YAC per reception (7.4) in 2023. So even though his production profile indicates that he should be a regression candidate, I would not be shocked if he somehow maintained his efficiency for yet another season. 

Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews were two of the most efficient tight ends in the league last year. To no surprise, a majority of Likely’s production came in the back half after Andrews injured his leg in Week 11. In his final six games, Likely averaged 12.2 points per game, ranking as the TE4 in half-PPR leagues. However, 51% of his fantasy production was driven by efficiency, scoring an absurd +5.9 Fantasy Over Expected per game and +3.9 Touchdowns Over Expected with Andrews out of the lineup. Simply put, this type of production is likely unsustainable, which means we should not expect Likely to be as efficient in 2024. For context, since 2013, we have never seen a tight end average over five points above expected for a full season. The closest was Tyler Eifert in 2015, who averaged +4.6 FPOE in 13 games. And considering Likely’s volume is expected to come back down to earth with Andrews fully healthy, he will, unfortunately, continue to be an inconsistent option for fantasy managers.

There were only 3 Tight Ends last season to average over 10 Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) in my usage model:

• TJ Hockenson
• Travis Kelce
• Evan Engram

Sam LaPorta & David Njoku were both within one point of hitting double-digit xFP

— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) July 10, 2024

Sam LaPorta had a historic season, scoring the most half-PPR points per game by a rookie over the last decade of fantasy football. From a usage standpoint, he also ranked TE3 among all rookies since 2013, behind only Evan Engram and Kyle Pitts. However, as you can see above, LaPorta’s production was partially driven by efficiency as he scored about +2.0 Fantasy Points Over Expected per game. Historically, 88% of tight ends that scored between 1.0 to 2.0 FPOE experienced regression the following season, averaging nearly 1.4 points less in efficiency. The good news is that LaPorta should remain a top-tier TE1 as long as his usage remains unchanged after averaging nearly 9.6 Expected Points (usage value) as a rookie. And considering the Lions are running it back with a similar offense, LaPorta should continue to be one of Goff’s primary targets this season.

For the first time in his career, Cole Kmet finished as a TE1 in points per game (8.5). However, as you can see above, he also averaged +1.3 Fantasy Points Over Expected. In other words, if his efficiency regresses to the mean, he would only average 7.2 points per game – which would have only ranked TE14 last season. That assumes, however, that his usage remains unchanged. With the additions of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, the bigger concern for Kmet is that his 18.9% target share could significantly decline. With his efficiency also at risk of regression, Kmet could very easily fall out of TE1 range this season. So while I do believe he can produce an occasional top-12 performance, Kmet likely projects to be a volatile weekly option for fantasy football.