Expected Fantasy Points: 2024 QB Regression Candidates (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to the final article of our series, identifying regression candidates using the metric Expected Fantasy Points. Over the last month, we highlighted the most likely regression candidates for the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. In this article, we close out the series with the quarterback position.

If you followed our Expected Points series in the DFS pass, you already know that volume and usage matter significantly for fantasy football. Since Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP) is a measure of usage, it highlights the most valuable players for our lineups. However, players rarely match their expected point value as various factors will impact their production on the field. Injuries, play calling, or even offensive line performance could either boost or decrease a player’s efficiency. With that being said, how do we measure efficiency for fantasy football? One metric we can use is Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE). In short, FPOE is the difference between a player’s Expected Fantasy Point value and their actual fantasy production on the field.

For example, we can break down Jalen Hurts’ production based on his usage and efficiency. Hurts finished the year averaging 21.0 fantasy points per game. The total value of his opportunities (pass and rush attempts) equated to 20.5 Expected Fantasy Points, which represents the value of an average quarterback with the same type of usage. The difference between those two values would be Hurts’ efficiency at +0.5 FPOE.

Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE) fluctuates throughout the season but can be valuable in identifying quarterbacks likely to regress year-over-year. Since 2013, a majority (67%) of quarterbacks who played at least eight games experienced regression in FPOE. Generally, efficiently performing quarterbacks often witness a decline in their FPOE the following season, while underperforming players tend to exhibit improved efficiency. So by pinpointing quarterbacks with the highest and lowest FPOE, we can identify potential regression candidates for the upcoming season.

For a more detailed breakdown of my Expected Fantasy Points model and how the metric is calculated, check out my series primer from the 2023 season. 

Recapping the 2023 Season

Charted above are the top quarterbacks in fantasy scoring from the 2023 season. Keep in mind that Expected Fantasy Points (on the x-axis) is the more predictive metric. As a result, the league-winning quarterbacks are always located in the right quadrants of the chart. 

The y-axis represents Fantasy Points Over Expected. Players above the horizontal dotted line are considered the most efficient and may experience negative regression. Players who fall below the dotted line underperformed relative to usage and have the potential for improved efficiency, or positive regression.

Before we dive into our regression candidates, below are a few stats and observations from this past season:

• While several quarterbacks stand out in the chart above,  Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are in a tier of their own as the only QBs to average over 20.0 Expected Fantasy Points. In other words, Allen and Hurts possess an extremely high floor. Not only are they heavily involved as rushers, but they also pass the ball at an extremely high rate.
• Speaking of passing the ball at a high rate, passing volume will significantly impact a player’s usage value. Naturally, teams that pass the ball frequently will usually produce multiple fantasy-relevant players. In 2023, the leaders in Pass Rate Over Expected were the Kansas City Chiefs (+6.6%), Cincinnati Bengals (+5.6%), Washington Commanders (+5.4%), Dallas Cowboys (+3.1%), and Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.7%).
• On the other end of the spectrum, four of the bottom five teams in Pass Rate Over Expected are entering the 2024 season with brand new play callers. Those teams are the Atlanta Falcons (-9.7%), Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.2%), Carolina Panthers (-5.5%), and Tennessee Titans (5.3%). Ironically, the Steelers hired Arthur Smith, who was even more run-heavy than the Steelers this past season.
• Dak Prescott was only the QB29 in rushing share in 2023. Despite that, he still finished as the QB4 in Expected Fantasy Points with 18.9 xFP. As mentioned earlier, the Cowboys were one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league. Because of their propensity to pass the ball at a high rate, Prescott and CeeDee Lamb formed one of the most productive duos in fantasy football. 

• As you can see above, rushing attempts are more valuable, especially at the goal line. Which quarterbacks averaged the most expected rushing points at the goal line (within five yards of the end zone)? To no surprise, Jalen Hurts and the “tush push” lead the way, as nearly 78% of his usage value at the goal line is driven by his rushing opportunities. Surprisingly, Lamar Jackson had a higher usage value as a passer than as a rusher inside the five-yard line. In fact, only 46% of his usage value at the goal line was driven by his rushing opportunities as the Ravens preferred to pass the ball the closer they got to the end zone.
• Anthony Richardson only played four games in his rookie season. However, we already saw glimpses of his potential. In his two healthy games, Richardson was the QB10 in Air Yards per Attempt (8.5), QB2 in Rushing Share (35.1%), and QB1 in fantasy points per game (25.3). Assuming he remains healthy, Richardson has the upside to finish as a top-tier QB1 this year.
• Speaking of rushing upside, Justin Fields was the QB6 in Expected Points (18.4 xFP) this past season. While he was not the most effective passer (QB22 in passing success rate), his rushing upside carried his fantasy value as he led all quarterbacks in rushing share at 31%. While he could be playing behind Russell Wilson this season, he will remain a high-upside backup quarterback simply because of his rushing prowess.

Positive Regression Candidates

Bryce Young had one of the most inefficient rookie seasons in recent history, scoring over 4.0 fantasy points BELOW expected. While we want rookies to perform efficiently, keep in mind that Carson Wentz, Trevor Lawrence, and Joe Burrow were all highly inefficient in their first season in the league – scoring over three points below expected. On a positive note, they would each follow that up with a QB1 campaign in their second season. As for Young, I would not be shocked if he followed a similar career trajectory as the Panthers made some significant upgrades this offseason. Not only will Dave Canales provide an improvement as a play-caller, but they also added significant pieces at wide receiver and the offensive line. With the additions of Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, Robert Hunt, and Damien Lewis, Young projects to bounce back significantly in his second year.

Will Levis had a polarizing rookie season. In his eight healthy games as a starter, Levis finished as a QB1 only once, while ranking as the QB25 in EPA per play. On a positive note, Levis was one of the most aggressive and accurate downfield passers in the league, leading in air yards per attempt at 10.3 and finishing second in deep ball catchable pass rate (57.9%). With Brian Callahan taking over as a head coach (after four years as the offensive coordinator with Cincinnati), I would not be shocked if the Titans transformed into a more pass-heavy offense, similar to the Bengals. Coupled with the additions of Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, Levis should see a significant improvement in efficiency after only scoring -2.2 Fantasy Points Over Expected from this past season. At only a 15th-round ADP, Levis projects to be one of the better late-round options at the quarterback position.

Joe Burrow’s 2023 season was defined by multiple injuries that limited his production. So while he started the year with four straight games outside of the top 20, keep in mind that Burrow dealt with a calf injury that likely impacted his production up until their bye week. After Week 7, Burrow would produce three straight QB1 performances, ranking as the QB4 in Expected Fantasy Points (20.2) and QB9 in Fantasy Points Over Expected (+3.4). Unfortunately, a wrist injury would prematurely end his season in Week 11, forcing him to miss the final seven games. Considering Burrow’s efficiency throughout his career, I would be shocked if he did not bounce back this year. With key additions to their offensive line (Trent Brown and Amarius Mims), Burrow should have a much more productive campaign as he enters the 2024 season fully healthy.

Negative Regression Candidates

The 49ers were the most effective passing offense in the league last year, leading in pass EPA per play at 0.28. For context, the Cowboys ranked second at 0.19, nearly 32% lower than the 49ers. As a result, Brock Purdy was the most efficient quarterback by a significant margin, scoring an absurd +4.8 Fantasy Points Over Expected this past season. While this is partially driven by the playcalling and the bevy of weapons on their offense, Purdy should also receive significant credit, ranking top 10 in multiple accuracy and efficiency metrics in 2023. While I expect Purdy to remain efficient, I would not be shocked if he regressed closer to the mean (or zero) this year. For context, since 2013, only 18 quarterbacks in my usage model have averaged over +4.0 FPOE for a full season. All but one regressed to the mean, averaging about four points less in efficiency the following season. The most recent example of this was actually Patrick Mahomes, who averaged +4.4 Fantasy Points Over Expected in 2022. In 2023, he finished the year with negative efficiency, scoring -0.9 FPOE through 17 games. Therefore, if even Mahomes could not avoid regression, I would expect Purdy to experience some form of decline this upcoming season.

While not quite as efficient as Purdy, Josh Allen was still one of the most efficient fantasy quarterbacks in 2023. However, the biggest difference between Allen and Purdy was their rushing upside. As I outlined above, Allen was one of only two quarterbacks to average over 20.0 Expected Fantasy Points this past season. A significant reason for that was his heavy involvement on the ground, accounting for nearly 22% of the team’s rushing opportunities per game. So even if his efficiency regresses this year, Allen should remain a top-five quarterback due to his heavy usage as both a rusher and passer. However, by far the biggest concern for the Bills will be their receiving corps after Stefon Diggs was traded to the Texans this past offseason. And while rookie receiver Keon Coleman could help fill that void, keep in mind that only 20% of second-round wide receivers that have broken out did so in their first campaign. Therefore, I do expect Allen’s efficiency to decline as the team searches for a new WR1 to emerge this season. 

C.J. Stroud produced one of the most efficient rookie quarterback seasons since 2013, averaging +2.2 Fantasy Points Over Expected. That would rank fourth among all rookie quarterbacks over the last decade, behind only Marcus Mariota, Justin Herbert, and Dak Prescott. However, it is important to note that Stroud relied heavily on his efficiency to produce, ranking only as the QB21 in Expected Fantasy Points with 16.1 xFP. Part of that can be attributed to Houston’s balanced offense, as they finished the season in the bottom half in Pass Rate Over Expected (19th). As a result, with Stroud’s FPOE projected to regress, we need his passing volume to improve if we expect him to remain a QB1. Fortunately, with the addition of Diggs and the return of Tank Dell, I would not be surprised if the Texans decided to pass the ball at a much higher rate this year, potentially raising Stroud’s floor and upside for the 2024 season.