Evaluating the Packers’ Receiving Room (Fantasy Football)

Introduction

Navigating the Green Bay Packers‘ receiver room can be a difficult task for fantasy football managers, given their depth and young competition. However, with the emergence of star quarterback Jordan Love, who threw for over 4,000 yards and 32 touchdowns last season, the potential for fantasy gold is undeniable. This article will explore strategies to identify which of the Packers’ wide receivers to target, especially in dynasty leagues where long-term value is key. Tapping into this high-powered offense could be the key to dominating your fantasy league. In this article, we will look at the following players:

• Romeo Doubs: WR, 24 years old
• Christian Watson: WR, 25 years old
• Jayden Reed: WR, 24 years old
• Dontayvion Wicks: WR, 22 years old
• Bo Melton: WR, 25 years old
• Luke Musgrave: TE, 23 years old
• Tucker Kraft: TE, 23 years old

As of now, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed are listed as the WR 1-3, with Wicks and Melton sitting behind. Luke Musgrave is listed as the TE 1, with Kraft backing him up.

Analysis

To evaluate this receiving room, we’ll first look at the target shares from each player. The numbers in the graphic below outline each player’s average target share in the games they played last season.

There are a few takeaways we can gather from this:

1. Love preferred to target his WRs than TEs
2. Despite being the third most targeted WR on the team last season, Wicks had an unimpressive target share
3. Bo Melton saw a surprising amount of action despite his limited opportunities

In confirming who the top three targets on the team are, we also see that despite good numbers (39 receptions on 58 targets), Wicks isn’t a consistent target for Love — this checks out, as much of his playing time last season came in the absence of Christian Watson (due to injury).

Next, we’ll look at air yards shares amongst the receiving corps.

From the graphic above, we can pull out a few things:

1. Christian Watson is Jordan Love‘s go-to deep threat — his average distance of target last season was 15 yards!
2. Bo Melton proved to be a deep threat for Love in his limited game-time
3. Dontayvion Wicks may not see a large share of air yards, but he makes the most of his opportunities — his average distance of target is around 10 yards, while his average reception length (including YAC) is 15

Lastly, we will look at fantasy points (PPR) per reception.

You’ll notice that all these players are fantasy-efficient, averaging over two points per reception. Christian Watson is the standout in this group with Jayden Reed just behind, scoring over 3.5 points per reception.

Conclusion

While this receiving room is packed, this isn’t necessarily cause for concern. None of the receivers are volume guys — they all have high fantasy points per reception, showing their ability to put up strong numbers despite limited opportunities. However, there does seem to be a clear number one — Christian Watson. Despite limited playing time last season due to injury, Watson put up strong numbers and controlled the field when he was active. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs are close seconds, as they both showed explosive ability and took a large share of the targets last season. With Doubs finding the endzone nine times and Reed finding it eight, neither receiver stands apart from the other on paper — they are both strong options to target, especially in dynasty leagues. As for Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton, these targets are less viable. While they both impressed last season during their opportunities, there doesn’t seem to be much room to move up on this crowded depth chart. While they may be good depth pieces for a dynasty team, they certainly shouldn’t be high-priced targets or options in redraft leagues. To address the two young TEs, Luke Musgrave is the clear top option. He took slightly more targets and saw a higher share of the air yards last season, and if he remains healthy, he will continue to be the top tight end target for Love in 2024. He might not be a tier-one TE for fantasy, but he is certainly a good option by default, being a starter for one of the most exciting young QBs in the league.