Eagles a -3.5 Favorite for Saquon Barkley’s Return to MetLife Stadium

The Philadelphia Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite for Saquon Barkley’s grand return to the New Jersey Meadowlands.

I don’t think anyone actually wants to go back to the swamp lands around East Rutherford unless they really have to, and in Sunday’s case, we have a running back potentially out for revenge.

Barkley is coming off his worst statistical performance as an Eagle. He only had 47 yards on 18 carries against Cleveland, which I think will motivate him more to perform at a high level than going back to New Jersey, but athletes are wired differently and will find motivation in anything.

Unfortunately, PA sports betting apps aren’t providing a discount on Barkley’s props because of one bad week against the Browns.

DraftKings lists Barkley at over/under 80.5 rushing yards, while FanDuel has him at over/under 78.5 rushing yards. Barkley is -160 to score a touchdown at DK and -155 to score at FD. I’d look into Barkley’s first touchdown scorer odds, which vary by sportsbook anywhere from +350 to +450.

The Giants have allowed over 100 rushing yards in four of their six games and they’ve gone over 300 yards conceded on four occasions as well. This isn’t the best defensive unit in football, but you do have to be careful with Dexter Lawrence and the defensive line.

Jalen Hurts’ rushing line, which DK lists at over/under 36.5, might be in play on Sunday, even with Barkley at his best, because there will be a few occasions where Hurts has to escape the pass rush.

Because of that strong pass-rush, the Giants have not allowed more than 231 passing yards in a single game this season, a sign that you should be a bit tentative with Hurts’ passing-yard prop of 216.5 yards.

Hurts has gone over that number three times in five games, and while the matchup with the Giants doesn’t set up for a ton of passing yards, he might be able to convert a few big plays to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

With Dallas Goedert out, Brown, Smith, and Barkley will be the targets through the air. Grant Calcaterra will likely have a super-low line if listed, and while he did have four catches for 67 yards last week, Hurts may go to his most trusted pass-catchers in a road divisional matchup.

The Giants get back Devin Singletary and Malik Nabers for Sunday after both missed Sunday night’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals with injuries. Singletary might end up splitting time with rookie running back Tyrone Tracy. Nabers is the player the Eagles should be scared of.

If you’re going to bet against the Eagles, which I know some people don’t like to do, Nabers has to be the guy. He was targeted over 10 times in his last three games and caught 12 passes against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4. Nabers’ props are steep at over/under 6.5 receptions and over/under 73.5 receiving yards, but the Eagles have allowed decent passing totals to offenses with competent quarterbacks. Daniel Jones is competent and that’s about it.

The Giants come into Sunday with a better record against the spread than the Birds. New York is 3-3 ATS with all three covers coming as an underdog of five or more points. They didn’t cover in the three games in which they were a dog of four points or less.

The Eagles haven’t covered since the Saints win in Week 3 and they are 1-3 ATS as a favorite. They are 3-2 to the under as well, so they haven’t exactly been a fun team to bet on. Neither have the Giants, who are 5-1 to the under.

Sunday’s over/under sits at 42.5. Three of the last four Eagles-Giants games at MetLife have had 44 points or less, but if you go back further, the 10 of the last 14 Eagles-Giants games at MetLife had at least 45 points.

So maybe, just maybe, the Eagles offense will open up on Sunday, hopefully behind Saquon, and we can all finally be satisfied with a victory.

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