Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: SuperFlex Thoughts & Musings

On a recent Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast, we got the whole gang together as Jason, Mike, Betz, and myself participated in a two-round 1QB Rookie Mock Draft. For people who want a little more, I got our writing staff to follow up with a SuperFlex Rookie Mock Draft.

Before you simply look at the picks and move on with your life, I highly recommend an article I refer to often on the podcast entitled Do We Overvalue QBs in Rookie Drafts? if you want a deeper dive on SuperFlex drafting and Dynasty SuperFlex Ranks.

SuperFlex Thoughts

At the heart of thousands of people asking “why don’t you do more SuperFlex content?” is a desire for clarity. I get that. The real questions people want to know: “when should I take QBs? How should I value them rightly?” 

As stated by many in the fantasy industry, the main change in a SuperFlex versus as 1QB league is the supply & demand. 75% of the NFL QBs will be starting in a 12-person SuperFlex league. You’ll hear everyone and their mama discuss how SuperFlex leagues create positional scarcity for the QB position. Effective rosters in Superflex dynasty leagues not only recognize the value of QBs but also the opportunity cost of not having one. This makes trading for QBs even harder. With the scarcity mentality, everyone is in the business of hoarding and playing it safe.

But, it does not change everything. You still are playing fantasy football and valuing players based on what players are perceived to be. Dynasty is a market and this is a key point: it is an inefficient market. You can win with so many different combinations and strategies just like with every other position. It’s worth repeating how much QB turnover there was year-to-year in the NFL. I wanted to get a better feel of the league and see if people were overvaluing low-end QB2s and QB3s in SuperFlex leagues. Over the last five years, at least 10 QBs (who were the Week 1 starters) were NOT that team’s starter a year later.

Week 1 NFL Starting QBs since 2018…

life comes at ya fast sometimes. pic.twitter.com/FNgQSGT3QJ

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) April 19, 2024

In fact, the average was 11.6 QB situations changed from year to year. That is a staggering number in a format where people draft for safety behind their elite QBs. While being caught without a viable QB2 is detrimental, the reality is the entire league likely will be turning over their QB2 position more often than you might think in a dynasty format. A player you think is a strong QB2 right now isn’t a guarantee to be his team’s starter next year.

SuperFlex Rookie Mock Draft

Now that I’ve shared a few SuperFlex thoughts, here is the draft board from our three round mock draft.

For each round, I will highlight some thoughts on the QBs, values I consider based on our dynasty rookie rankings, the biggest fallers from a previous SuperFlex mock draft, and the boldest move of each round.

Round 1

QB Thoughts- Pick 1 is team dependent. This puts Caleb Williams in consideration for the 1.01 for QB-needy teams but do not feel like it has to be QB by any means. It’s arguably the best situation ever for a 1st overall QB (Andrew Luck had Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton) and new OC Shane Waldron carries a more pass-happy approach than you might realize. Williams belongs firmly in the 1.01-1.03 in SuperFlex… For Jayden Daniels, the weapons here in Washington also could be drastically different a year from now with Terry McLaurin looking cuttable next year at age 30 and Jahan Dotson‘s 5th-year option will be on the table next summer. Daniels could be immune with his rushing upside but keep in mind this team’s fluidity. He’s a fringe top-10 dynasty QB in startups on upside alone but don’t underestimate his range of outcomes a year from now. He could go the Lamar Jackson route and break fantasy football or flop as a franchise QB like Justin Fields…. For Drake Maye versus J.J. McCarthy, it seems like a true coin flip. Keep in mind this player should have multiple years to “prove it” and weapons can come in a flurry. However, these teams picking QBs early often stink and if they trade away multiple assets to get a QB, it leaves the team short at filling in other premium positional needs. He’s still a top-end SuperFlex pick but think back to last year when Bryce Young was taken 1.01 by Carolina after they traded the house to get him and he was drafted consistently in the 1.02-1.04 range in SuperFlex rookie drafts. The talent around him was soooo bad that it not only set him back in terms of dynasty value but the weapons continue to lag behind the rest of the league. If you like the situation in MIN more than NE, I totally get it.

Values– The fastest man alive (Xavier Worthy) was validated as a late 1st round pick. He dropped to the 1.09 range compared to 1.04 in our 1QB draft. Kansas City incinerated people’s pants with the pick and with the Rashee Rice news, there is a spectrum to view Worthy in. Is he Jaylen Waddle or John Ross 2.0? He ranks 2nd in this class in career team receiving yards market share, showing that is he more than a speed merchant. You should like Worthy based on what he did as a freshman more than his 40-time. Keep in mind this is a different Kansas City offense. Patrick Mahomes wasn’t needed as much in 2023 with just ONE Passing TD of 20+ Air Yards and a deep ball completion rate of 29%, 36th among 40 qualifying QBs. While we adjust how we view WRs in today’s NFL, it’s hard to hold up to 17 games when you are getting pummeled at this weight.

Biggest Faller(s) from March– Despite being selected in the 1st round of the NFL Draft, Brian Thomas Jr.‘s fantasy stock soured landing among a crowded pass-catching corp in Jacksonville. While Calvin Ridley did vacate 22% of the targets, the free agency addition of downfield threat Gabe Davis overlaps with BTJ’s skillset. Before the draft, he was seen as a top-4 rookie pick in 1QB leagues and the 1.06 in our early SuperFlex mocks. Now he slides more to the 1.07+ range on a team with other WRs (Christian Kirk and Evan Engram) who historically have earned targets at a higher rate than BTJ.

“That’s a Bold Move Cotton”– Of all the teams connected with Brock Bowers, the Raiders were not on the radar after selecting Michael Mayer 34th overall in 2023. When you add in the mess at the QB position (apologies to Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell) and a target hog like Davante Adams, Las Vegas is a situation which certainly does not benefit Bowers in the short term. We know tight-ends take a while to develop so long-term, don’t question Bowers upside. However, his valuation and spot in rookie drafts certainly moves towards the middle or back of Round 1 now.

Round 2

QB Thoughts- Entering the NFL Draft, Bo Nix‘s stock was up in the air. Could he fall into Round 2 a la Will Levis of last year, or would an NFL team actually taken him in the top-15 and give him a shot as their franchise QB? Sean Payton and Denver answered that question when they took him 12th overall. Betting on these older QB prospects generally doesn’t work out for fantasy, but Nix has dynasty life in Payton’s QB-friendly system. We expect him to earn starts right away as a rookie. He belongs in this early to mid second round spot based on draft capital alone.

Values– It felt like the RBs in this year’s draft were so hard to read. Based on team need, Trey Benson likely should be a 1st rounder. However, its not surprising to see him fall into the 2nd round of SuperFlex drafts. He crushed the Combine, running an eye-popping 4.39 in the 40-yard dash at 216 pounds, giving him a 99th percentile weight-adjusted speed score. Unfortunately, he fell to the third round of the NFL Draft, but he landed in a great situation. James Conner is likely the RB1 for 2024, but the oft-injured veteran is entering his age 29 season and set to be a free agent next year. At worst, Benson should be the lightning to Conner’s thunder in his rookie year, but there’s a chance the former Seminole could be Arizona’s RB1 in 2025 and beyond… Xavier Legette dropping this far feels like robbery. Could it fail? Certainly. There are literally zero comps in my database of a player breaking out in Year 5 after this little production. His late breakout age (22.6) would be the 2nd latest of any WR drafted in Rounds 1-3 over the last decade. But the opportunity and his success versus zone coverage (2.99 YPRR) is something this Carolina team desperately needs. He belongs 3-4 picks ahead of this in my opinion… While Roman Wilson fell behind other names as the WR14 off the board in the NFL Draft, he still belongs in the middle of the second round of rookie drafts. While the landing spot in Pittsburgh does have some issues, the opportunity to step right into an every-down role is very apparent. Diontae Johnson‘s exodus vacates 18% of the targets and apart from George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, the competition is minimal with no other WR on the roster able to match Wilson’s with his type of separation ability. He should turn into a valuable PPR asset and his floor feels high as a pro-ready, possession receiver.

Biggest Faller(s) from March–  Say it’s not so! Troy Franklin is a favorite among Fantasy Footballers but the NFL apparently couldn’t turn a blind eye to his Combine. He measured two inches shorter (6’1″) than what he was listed at Oregon and his gauntlet drill wasn’t exactly a thing of beauty. Drafted as the WR16 off the board, Franklin fell from being a mid-first round rookie pick to a dart throw in the second round in hopes that his connection with Bo Nix remains strong. Oh, and the Broncos are an absolute dumpster fire right now.

“That’s a Bold Move Cotton”– Blake Corum might’ve landed with the Rams as the 3rd RB taken in the draft. But there are at least 3 WRs at this spot in the middle of the second round which carry higher upside. The issue with Corum is he stands only on the grounds of his massive TD production and the Sean McVay system. Is Kyren Williams the truth? If he is, this seems too early to draft a backup RB with little explosiveness.

Round 3

QB Thoughts- Imagine explaining this before the NFL Draft: Michael Penix Jr. is taken 8th overall and yet his fantasy stock falls drastically. Falcons gonna falcon! While Penix already had some warts to his prospect profile thanks to his age and multiple ACL surgeries, the landing spot is historically bad and downright confusing. Falcons GM Terry Fontenot made it clear that Penix could sit for multiple years behind Kirk Cousins. I’m sorry but even in a SuperFlex league, you are merely speculating and rolling the dice for playing time in Atlanta. You can certainly take him in In 1QB league, good luck holding on. It was quite possibly the most puzzling pick in NFL Draft history.

Values– Javon Baker was one of four WRs in this class to post 3+ YPRR versus both man and zone coverage in his final season. His YAC profile intrigues me and while I don’t love the Day 3 draft capital, the landing spot suggests he can wrestle away playing time ahead of the corpses of JuJu Smith-Schuster, KJ Osborn, Tyquan Thornton and Kayshon Boutte. In the third round, I’m shooting for upside and Baker’s profile fits the mold of what we should be looking for late in drafts.

Biggest Faller(s) from March– Braelon Allen (aka the mammoth man-child) sadly fell into Day 3 and it is a death sentence on his immediate fantasy value. Landing in New York behind Breece Hall says he’ll be used sparingly as a short-yardage back and likely limited in his touches apart from an injury to the starter. Is he a fun insurance back to hold in dynasty? You bet. Draft him in Round 3 of your rookie draft and dangle him in front of the Hall manager until they finally come around to trading for the backup…. Audric Estimé is a big body back (BBB as Jason likes to say) out of Notre Dame, who ran a 4.71 at the combine. At his size, that number is a bottom 5th percentile mark and it clearly tanked his draft stock. Taken 147th overall, the landing spot in Denver and his draft capital is only the beginning of his worries. The concern is that he could just be a plodding early down back for fantasy, which obviously caps his upside. He’s a late 3rd round rookie pick that might not even see the field much in Year 1.