Dynasty Rookie Drafts: Weighing the NFL Draft & a Range of Outcomes

You have a condition. A sick, twisted condition where the only cure for your upcoming rookie draft in your dynasty league is… well, more mock drafting.

Mock drafting (both for the real-life NFL Draft & fantasy football) could be the greatest thing this side of actually playing fantasy football. However, the issue with mock drafting within a simulator or creating a DIY spreadsheet of your league is that you routinely end up in the same position with picks you’ve already penciled in ahead of time.

• “Oh, we know this player is going to be a top-10 pick”
• “He’s locked in as my WR4 in this draft. In every single mock draft, he’s there when I’m on the board.”
• “I can’t see a scenario where he falls out of the 1st round.”

Well, I’m not here to rain on your parade, but the next week will give us a major data input in the form of draft capital and actual NFL teams that might throw you out of whack. For real, it is so easy to minimize a player’s range of outcomes when the last month is filled with more groupthink than your uncle’s Facebook groups.

For dynasty rookie drafts, my goal was to list a range of NFL Draft capital outcomes for each player combining each of the following data points:

• Consensus Big Board Rank– MockDraftDatabase.com
• Expected Draft Position– GrindingtheMocks.com
• Positional Over/Under Lines– DraftKings Sportsbook & Circa Sportsbook

I have organized each of the major offensive positions by the Footballers Consensus Pre-Draft Rookie Rankings found in the Dynasty Pass. Keep in mind that these were formed before you see things shake out from Thursday to Saturday.

Quarterbacks

Jackpot! Caleb Williams digressed in a number of statistical areas this past year but the combination of his size and game-breaking ability have produced Mahomesian vibes the last two years. The former Heisman winner looks like the locked-in 1.01 when the Bears take him 1st overall. Behind him, UNC’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels have scouts oozing for their dual-threat abilities. Maye came in as a 5-star recruit after Sam Howell at North Carolina and lit up the scoreboard with 8400+ passing yards, 72 passing TDs, and 1100+ rushing yards in his two seasons as the starter. Daniels also put up video game numbers in 2023, winning the Heisman, and producing the best QBR season since 2010 with his quick “flick” release. Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. remains a polarizing prospect with some raising red flags with his age (almost 24) while others point out he led the nation in passing yards in back-to-back campaigns. Bo Nix also put up intriguing efficiency numbers at Oregon but will also enter the NFL at age 24. Other than Joe Burrow and a brief stint for Carson Wentz, older QB prospects have not played out well in dynasty. With several top-5 NFL draft picks going to QB-needy teams, it looks like at least three QBs will be selected there warranting heavy rookie draft capital in dynasty leagues. The landing spots, offensive play-callers, and weapons surrounding these QBs obviously matter so don’t lock them in as automatic.

Caleb Williams, USC

Verdict: There is only one draft outcome currently available to us. In SuperFlex leagues, this puts Caleb in consideration for the 1.01 for QB-needy teams. It’s arguably the best situation ever for a 1st overall QB (Andrew Luck had Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton) and new OC Shane Waldron carries a more pass-happy approach than you might realize.

NEW INFORMATION

Are Rookie QBs passing more? The short answer: YES pic.twitter.com/WR2DPZkjFg

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) April 15, 2024

Jayden Daniels, LSU

NFL Draft Range of Outcomes

• Washington- Read into whatever you want from the Commanders’ infamous group Top Golf session with all the QBs. A reminder that GM Adam Peters has been tight-lipped through this whole process and Washington (and any other NFL team for that matter) has zero incentive to share what they are doing. Kliff Kingsbury’s offensive system can certainly hum with Daniels set in shotgun but I’ve also shared some of my worries with this Washington team and their win total even before the NFL Draft. QBs are so landing spot dependent but the weapons here in Washington also could be drastically different a year from now with Terry McLaurin looking cuttable next year at age 30. Jahan Dotson‘s 5th-year option will be on the table next summer, the RB room is a short-term fix, and the TEs are laughable with the geriatric Zach Ertz turning around and falling down every five yards. In other words, being drafted No. 2 overall is nice but I do worry about Daniels’ development and situation over the course
• New England– A stat worth noting is the fact only 16.9% of Daniels’ attempts in 2023 were play-action, by far the lowest of all of the 2024 QB prospects. It’s just something to monitor especially if he lands with a team like New England at No. 3 overall with new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt. His heavy run schemes from four years in Cleveland were among the highest in play-action passing rate including Joe Flacco (32.9%) and Deshaun Watson (26.5%) ranking in the top 12 among QBs with 200+ dropbacks in 2023. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson (who is one of the few physical comps to Daniels) also stepped in but the team didn’t trust him nearly to the same degree (18.7%) turning his back to defenses and being able to read complex coverages. Daniels is on another level from DTR so don’t hear what I’m not saying. Rather, it’s valuable to see how he handles those reps in pre-season.
• Not one of those two teams- The biggest worry I had with Daniels in his Rookie Profile article was his insanely high scramble rate and the fact that deep (20+ air yard) TDs are often unrepeatable year-to-year. Maybe Washington and New England are worried about his intangibles and find that Maye or McCarthy are simply better pro prospects in their mind. The reasoning does not matter for fantasy purposes as Daniels will be scooped up by another team (NYG? DEN? LV?) and likely one of them trades up to the 4th or 5th picks to make it happen. Nevertheless, if he’s drafted in the top-10, he still is battling it out with Drake Maye for QB2 for fantasy purposes. This scenario would definitely cause panic in the streets as it’s hard to envision him falling below #3.

Verdict: He had 43% of LSU’s rushing yards in 2023, which will be the 3rd highest % ever for a 1st round QB. That kind of rushing production is rare and provides a wild boost to his fantasy contributions even in Year 1. Behind Williams, Daniels feels like a high-floor and high-ceiling option as the QB2. In SuperFlex leagues, it is about team need but he shouldn’t last longer than 1.05. In 1QB leagues, I think he’s a top-10 pick.

Every 1st round QB since 1995 who surpassed 18+ % of their team’s rushing yardage (best % season). pic.twitter.com/A8QCHrEdIA

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) February 5, 2024

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