Dynasty Range of Outcomes: 2024 Wide Receiver Class

Draft season is an exciting time for dynasty managers. It offers an opportunity to infuse your rosters with youth and talent, while also setting your team up for success for many years to come. Unfortunately, the rate at which rookies break out at the next level will vary significantly. Some struggle to emerge in the NFL, while others become immediate producers for their respective teams. So how do we determine which players to invest in and which ones to avoid in your rookie drafts? 

In short, rookie analysis is a game of probability. No prospect is guaranteed to succeed at the NFL level, given the various factors that could influence their trajectory. However, we can still utilize historical prospect data to identify the players who are more likely to succeed in the NFL.

This topic might already sound familiar as Borg and Betz recently discussed this on an episode of the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty podcast. In addition, last year I broke down the 2023 rookie class. To quickly recap, we will keep the analysis relatively simple by using four data points to find players that most resemble the 2024 rookie class:

• Draft Capital: This is by far the most predictive metric. It is also a reflection of team investment. The earlier a player is drafted, the more likely they are to receive an opportunity in the NFL and, therefore, break out for your dynasty teams.
• Career Production: While there are a few exceptions, players who dominate in college usually produce at the NFL level. In fact, we consistently see higher hit rates when we control the sample size for draft capital and production. For this analysis, we will use two of the most predictive college metrics: Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (Wide Receivers and Tight Ends) and Scrimmage Yards per Team Play (Running Backs). These two metrics not only factor in usage but also efficiency relative to each team’s offense. To find players who produced similarly, our analysis will apply a 15% threshold in both directions.
• Declare Status: Prospects can be classified as either early declare or non-early declare. This simply denotes that a player entered the league within three years of graduating high school. Why does this matter? We usually see higher breakout rates for players who declare early. Intuitively, this makes sense considering the most elite prospects enter the league as soon as they are eligible, with very little left to prove at the collegiate level.
• Weight: This data point has the lowest correlation to fantasy production, especially for wide receivers. However, it makes sense to filter on weight to avoid comparing a player like Julio Jones to Jordan Addison, who is nearly 50 pounds lighter. In this analysis, we will apply a five to ten-pound threshold in both directions to find players with similar body mass.

Since they have only been in the league for one season, I am deliberately excluding the 2023 class from each player’s comp list. For a more detailed breakdown of these thresholds and metrics, check out our series primer from last off-season. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out on Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

Let’s dive into the 2024 Wide Receiver class!

Malik Nabers enters the league with a very accomplished collegiate profile. Despite a quiet freshman campaign, he broke out early as a Sophomore with 1,000 receiving yards in 14 games. However, what truly set him apart as a prospect was his elite Junior campaign, averaging over 36% of LSU’s receiving yards and 3.80 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt. His 2023 season would rank in the 98th percentile since 2010, ahead of both Marvin Harrison Jr and Rome Odunze by a significant margin. As a result, it should not come as a surprise that his closest prospect comps are some of the most accomplished collegiate and NFL receivers. Coincidently, over half of the players on this list also played for LSU. 

Dynasty managers should be extremely encouraged as Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Odell Beckham Jr. represent the highest range of outcomes for Nabers. Assuming he follows a similar career path, we can likely expect multiple WR1 campaigns over the next several seasons. However, on the lower end of the spectrum, Nelson Agholor was significantly less accomplished, producing only one top-36 fantasy season in nine years. With this list in mind, I would be shocked if Nabers did not have a successful career in the NFL. Especially with a clear path to targets, Nabers has an opportunity to be an immediate contributor in his rookie season.

If we compare Rome Odunze’s list to Nabers’, it becomes obvious why declare status matters. With very similar career averages, Nabers’ list looks significantly more impressive, in part because he declared early and produced at a higher level at a younger age. On the other hand, Odunze’s best season did not occur until his Senior year. Even in his most productive campaign, he never exceeded 3.00 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt at any point in his career, which is usually the elite threshold we should look for in a wide receiver. For context, Nabers exceeded that mark as a Junior, while Marvin Harrison Jr. did it twice in his collegiate career. 

Despite that, Odunze is still an outstanding player with WR1 upside, as evidenced by DeVante Parker and Brandon Aiyuk on his comp list. Aiyuk most recently finished as the WR13 in half-PPR leagues, while Parker was the WR10 back in 2016. It may also be easy to forget that Michael Floyd had some fantasy-relevant seasons with Arizona – finishing his best season (2013) as the WR22 in points per game. On the lower end of the spectrum, Kevin White and Breshad Perriman represent the floor for Odunze – two players who never broke out in the NFL despite receiving first-round capital. In White’s case, injuries robbed him of any opportunity to succeed at the next level. 

Taking a look at this list, should dynasty managers reconsider drafting Odunze with a top-five rookie pick? Absolutely not. Even with a slightly less productive collegiate profile, he still ranks as a 93rd-percentile prospect in my rookie model. However, we likely need to adjust our expectations as historical data suggests that his ceiling may be slightly lower than that of Harrison or Nabers.

I will preface this segment by saying that Marvin Harrison Jr. is one of the most elite prospects in recent history, ranking in the 99th percentile in my rookie model. Surprisingly, only two prospects entered the league with a similar collegiate profile. Shockingly, they were both drafted with the fourth overall pick. Naturally, the player that should immediately catch your eye is A.J. Green. He represents the elite ceiling for Harrison Jr. as Green produced multiple WR1 campaigns with the Bengals, eclipsing the century mark six times in his first seven seasons. On the other hand, Sammy Watkins would be the floor of Harrison Jr.’s career. Keep in mind that Watkins was a dominant receiver at Clemson. And while he was only the WR31 in his rookie year, he would follow that up with a WR10 campaign in his second season with the Bills. Unfortunately, injuries would derail his trajectory and Watkins would fail to finish as a top-24 wide receiver for the remainder of his career. Regardless, barring an injury, MHJ is undoubtedly the WR1 of this class and I would be shocked if he did not produce multiple WR1 campaigns by the end of his career. And considering his favorable landing spot with the Cardinals, Harrison Jr. is in a perfect situation to succeed in the NFL.

From a career production standpoint, Xavier Worthy ranks near the top in multiple metrics after producing at an elite level right out of the gate (36% of Texas’ receiving yards as a true freshman). Surprisingly, I was unable to find a direct comp for Worthy, considering his draft capital, top-tier production, and lighter frame. I had to extend the thresholds to find two first-round players who finished with similar career numbers. Even then, the comps are slightly flawed as Jameson Williams and Jaylen Waddle both peaked in production as Juniors, while Worthy was most productive as a freshman. 

Waddle represents the best-case scenario after starting his career with three straight top-24 fantasy seasons. As for Williams, we have yet to see his peak in the NFL after missing extended time over the last two years due to suspension and injuries. Keep in mind, however, that Jordan Addison would have made this list as well if we included the 2023 class. So while Worthy’s weight may seem like a red flag, we have seen plenty of recent examples of lighter-framed wide receivers succeed in the NFL. From Waddle to Marquise Brown, we have consistently seen that draft capital and college production matter more than weight. That’s why Worthy remains one of the more intriguing prospects in this class. And considering he is now tied to Patrick Mahomes for the foreseeable future, Worthy should be primed for a productive start to his NFL career. 

College production matters significantly at the wide receiver position, especially for day two wide receivers. We see that on full display in Ladd McConkey’s list of comps as none have broken out in the NFL. Even after extending the weight threshold, the most accomplished player on this list is Van Jefferson – whose most productive campaign was in 2021 as the WR42 in points per game. Especially for wide receivers who finished their careers with negative experience-adjusted production, we usually see significantly lower breakout rates* at the next level:

• Day Two: 33% Hit Rate
• Day Two + Positive Exp. Production: 49% Hit Rate
• Day Two + Negative Exp. Production: 21% Hit Rate

*Breakout = Top 24 Fantasy Season

Surprisingly, there are ZERO day-two wide receivers in this class with positive experience-adjusted production, which includes McConkey. Yes, he is walking into a very favorable situation with Justin Herbert and a wide-open Chargers depth chart. However, we need to lower our expectations as players with McConkey’s profile rarely break out in the NFL.

While he was slightly more productive than McConkey, Keon Coleman does not pass the thresholds I discussed in the previous segment, making him a riskier prospect. However, because he declared early, his comps are slightly more intriguing. On the lower end of outcomes, Coleman’s production, weight, and draft capital are very similar to Cody Latimer and Terrace Marshall Jr. – two receivers who have yet to break out in the NFL. On the highest range of outcomes, Coleman’s collegiate production is comparable to Tee Higgins‘ – although Higgins was slightly more productive in his best season at Clemson. On a positive note, both receivers rank in the 80th to 90th percentile range in my rookie model, which has historically yielded a 58% hit rate for second-round receivers. Coupled with an excellent landing spot, Coleman has the potential to be an immediate producer for the Buffalo Bills.

Speaking of Tee Higgins, if the Cincinnati Bengals decide to trade him this off-season, Jermaine Burton could emerge as one of Joe Burrow’s primary targets. Unfortunately, his profile leaves much to be desired. As a non-early declare prospect who did not break out until his senior year, the likelihood of Burton producing for fantasy purposes is fairly low. Historically, receivers with a college breakout age of 22 years or older (similar to Burton) have only averaged an 8% hit rate in the NFL. Even when we isolate our sample size to only include day two receivers, the hit rates only improve to 16%. As a result, his two closest comps in my database are Jordan Shipley and Devin Duvernay. To be fair, Shipley totaled 600 receiving yards as a rookie for the Bengals (playing behind Terrell Owens and Chad Johnson), but would suffer a devastating knee injury in 2011 that derailed the rest of his career. The good news is that while Burton’s likelihood of emerging in the NFL is relatively low, you do not have to pay a premium to acquire him in your dynasty leagues as he is currently being selected in the early third round of rookie drafts.

While we naturally want to be optimistic about this rookie class, keep in mind that day three wide receivers rarely break out. Since 2013, only 3% of day-three receivers have produced a top-24 fantasy season in the NFL. Those hit rates improve slightly to 20% for early-declare prospects with a positive production profile. Even then, the likelihood of them breaking out is still low. That brings us to Javon Baker, who was the second receiver drafted by the New England Patriots in the 2024 draft. From a production standpoint, Baker has an intriguing profile. Even though he was unable to break out at Alabama, he showcased his upside after transferring to UCF, accounting for about 27% of the team’s receiving production in his final two seasons. However, as a four-year prospect drafted in the fourth round, his chances of producing in the NFL are fairly slim. We see that reflected in his list of player comps, which is filled with multiple players (outside of maybe Romeo Doubs) who barely produced for fantasy football. Therefore, while Baker is an intriguing prospect with a path to opportunity, we should temper our expectations as he heads into his rookie year.

Jacob Cowing was one of my favorite prospects in the pre-draft process. He broke out early in his career and was extremely productive in his best season. In fact, Cowing is one of only three receivers in this class to produce over 3.00 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt as a true Junior. The other two receivers that met that threshold were Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers. While Cowing is not anywhere near Harrison or Nabers from a talent standpoint, it is still impressive just how dominant he was at UTEP and Arizona. However, even with his excellent production, I had to extend my weight thresholds to find two prospects who entered the league with a similar profile. Unfortunately, both players are slightly underwhelming. Calvin Austin has yet to break out in the NFL, while Dede Westbrook was a borderline flex-level option in his time with the Jaguars. If anything, this proves just how rare it is for day-three wide receivers to break out in the NFL. Especially if the 49ers retain both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, Cowing is unlikely to receive much playing time to start his career.