Dynasty Range of Outcomes: 2024 Tight End Class

Welcome back to our Dynasty Range of Outcomes series! After exploring rookie running backs and wide receivers in recent weeks, we now shift our focus to the tight end position. While this group may not be as deep as the 2023 class, it does feature one of the most accomplished collegiate tight ends in recent history. Additionally, a few prospects have the potential to make a significant impact on their respective teams due to their favorable landing spots.

As mentioned in the previous article regarding the 2024 running back class, rookie analysis is a game of probability. Even though early-round tight ends tend to break out at a high rate, the possibility always exists that they never emerge at the next level. But despite the various factors that could influence their trajectory, we can still utilize historical prospect data to identify which players are most likely to break out in the NFL.

This topic might already sound familiar as Borg, Betz, and the Ballers recently discussed this on an episode of the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty podcast. In addition, last year I broke down the 2023 rookie class. To quickly recap, we will keep the analysis relatively simple by using four data points to find players that most resemble the 2024 rookie class:

• Draft Capital: This is by far the most predictive metric. It is also a reflection of team investment. The earlier a player is drafted, the more likely they are to receive an opportunity in the NFL and, therefore, break out for your dynasty teams.
• Career Production: While there are a few exceptions, players who dominate in college usually produce at the NFL level. In fact, we consistently see higher hit rates when we control the sample size for draft capital and production. For this analysis, we will use two of the most predictive college metrics: Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (wide receivers and tight ends) and Scrimmage Yards per Team Play (running backs). These two metrics not only factor in usage but also efficiency relative to each team’s offense. To find players who produced similarly, our analysis will apply a 15% threshold in both directions.
• Declare Status: Prospects can be classified as either early declare or non-early declare, indicating that a player did or did not enter the league within three years of graduating high school. Why does this matter? We usually see higher breakout rates for players who declare early. Intuitively, this makes sense considering the most elite prospects enter the league as soon as they are eligible, with very little left to prove at the collegiate level.
• Weight: This data point has the lowest correlation to fantasy production. However, it makes sense to filter on weight to avoid comparing a player like Derrick Henry to De’Von Achane, who is over 50 pounds lighter. In this analysis, we will apply a five to ten-pound threshold in both directions to find players with similar body mass.

For a more detailed breakdown of these thresholds and metrics, check out our series primer from last offseason. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out on Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Let’s dive into the 2024 tight end class!

Brock Bowers is undoubtedly the TE1 in this class, finishing with one of the most elite production profiles after three dominant seasons at Georgia. As a result, my process struggled to find a prospect with similar numbers. Even after extending my thresholds, you can see above that Bowers’ career production is significantly ahead of Kyle Pitts and Eric Ebron, two of the most accomplished collegiate tight ends in recent history. In short, this should put into perspective just how unique of a prospect he is, ranking in the 99.9th percentile in my rookie model.

Keep in mind that first-round tight ends have one of the highest hit rates among skill-position players. Since 2013, 80% of tight ends drafted on day one finish with at least one TE1 campaign within their first three years. The only two prospects who have not hit that mark are Hayden Hurst and Dalton Kincaid. In the case of Hurst, he entered the league as an older prospect and was eventually outperformed by Mark Andrews. As for Kincaid, we have yet to see his peak in the NFL as tight ends usually break out in their second and third seasons. Considering the departure of Stefon Diggs, I would be shocked if Kincaid does not emerge into TE1 territory within the next two years. As a result, dynasty managers should feel extremely confident in Bowers’ dynasty outlook, considering his elite production and draft capital. Even on a team with question marks at the quarterback position, I fully expect him to be an integral part of the Raiders’ offense as soon as this season.

The hit rates drop significantly for day two tight ends, as only 40% of prospects drafted since 2013 have produced at least one TE1 season. As a result, Ben Sinnott’s dynasty comps offer a wider range of outcomes. Gavin Escobar’s career trajectory would be the worst-case scenario for Sinnott as he never exceeded a 5% target share while playing behind Jason Witten in Dallas. Keep in mind that Escobar also tore his Achilles in 2015, which likely played a role in his limited opportunities beyond that point in his career. On the higher end of the spectrum would be the career path of Zach Ertz, who ironically is now Sinnott’s teammate in Washington. While Travis Kelce is the poster child of continued production at the tight end position, we should not forget that Ertz was once a TE1 for five straight seasons with the Eagles.

While Ertz and Escobar are very similar from a production standpoint, Sinnott does have the edge athletically, scoring a 9.72 Relative Athletic Score at the combine. Considering athleticism has a stronger correlation to tight end production, Sinnott’s elite measurables are tremendously important for his dynasty outlook. And with Ertz only under contract for one season in Washington, Sinnott has an opportunity to emerge as the TE1 in a young, ascending offense led by Jayden Daniels.

After Bowers and Sinnott, the dropoff to the TE3 in this class is very steep. While Ja’Tavion Sanders falls into that slot in most rankings, we need to remember that fourth-round prospects rarely hit in the NFL. For context, since 2013, only 11% of tight ends drafted in the fourth round have produced a TE1 campaign. So even though Tyler Higbee and Jake Ferguson have had success at the next level, they should be considered exceptions to the norm. As a result, Sanders enters the league with a lower probability of success, as evidenced by his limited comps in the table above. With that being said, there are parts of his profile that I find really intriguing. Firstly, Sanders is an early-declare prospect with a solid production profile. He produced over 600 receiving yards in each of his final two seasons, averaging 18% of the team’s receiving yards while playing alongside AD Mitchell and Xavier Worthy. In addition, he also checks the athleticism threshold, scoring an 8.39 Relative Athletic Score during the combine process. Finally, with very little competition ahead of him, there is a realistic scenario where Sanders could emerge as the TE1 for Carolina as soon as this season. Therefore, while I am tempering my expectations due to draft capital, I do believe there is a path to fantasy relevance for Sanders in the Panthers offense.

Similar to Sanders, Cade Stover enters the league with a lower chance of breaking out due to draft capital. Stover is a difficult player to evaluate, in part because he played with multiple NFL-caliber wide receivers at Ohio State. On the other hand, he also played behind Jeremy Ruckert early in his career, who has yet to produce at the NFL level despite receiving third-round capital. As a result, because of his later breakout, his career Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt only ranks in the 40th percentile. As you can see in the chart above, that clearly impacted his list of player comps as none of them have emerged in the NFL. Chris Herndon offered a glimpse of hope, finishing as the TE17 in points per game in his rookie year. However, injuries and a suspension would limit his production for the rest of his career. As for Cade Otton and Daniel Bellinger, it may be too early to evaluate their careers as there could be a scenario where both players break out in 2024. Otton is set to be the TE1 for the Buccaneers, while Bellinger has an opportunity to emerge as the TE1 for the Giants this season (more on that below). Regardless, the bigger concern for Stover is the presence of Dalton Schultz, who most recently signed a three-year contract with the Texans. With significant cap hits over the next two seasons, Schultz should be the TE1 for the Texans for the foreseeable future. As a result, Stover will likely follow the same trajectory as Bellinger, who played behind Darren Waller (and other established receivers) early in his career.

Speaking of the Giants, there is now a clear void at the tight end position after Darren Waller announced his retirement this past week. That opens up an opportunity for Daniel Bellinger and Theo Johnson to walk into significant volume. Surprisingly, Bellinger and Johnson were very similar prospects coming out of college. Both players are outstanding athletes (+9.5 RAS) but struggled to produce early in their collegiate careers. Bellinger has the slight edge as he broke out in his third season with San Diego State, while also accounting for nearly 20% of his team’s receiving yards as a senior. In the case of Johnson, he failed to break out in his four seasons at Penn State, averaging only a 14.8% Receiving Yards Market Share in his best campaign. In addition, keep in mind that Bellinger entered the draft at a much younger age than Johnson. As a result, both players will enter the season at 23 years old, except Bellinger already has two NFL campaigns under his belt. Regardless, neither player excites me as a TE1 option in a Daniel Jones-led offense. However, if I had to pick, I believe Bellinger is more likely to break out for the Giants this year.

Erick All enters his career in an intriguing situation where the TE1 slot is wide open for the taking. While the presence of Mike Gesicki slightly impacts his path to targets, keep in mind that he only signed a one-year deal worth $2.5 million – of which only $400,000 is fully guaranteed. As for his draft profile, All is a five-year prospect who played most of his career at Michigan. His best season with the Wolverines was by far his junior campaign, averaging nearly 15% of the team’s receiving yards. However, after suffering a neck injury in his senior year, he would eventually transfer to the Hawkeyes for his final campaign. Keep in mind that All was NOT the TE1 for Iowa to start the season. In fact, Luke Lachey was on his way to an impressive breakout season before suffering an ankle injury in his third game. With Lachey missing the rest of the year, All dominated for the Hawkeyes the rest of the way, operating as the lead receiver for their offense. In seven games, All accounted for over 43% of the team’s receiving production, while averaging 1.87 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt. As a result, while I am still tempering my expectations, All could be an intriguing pick in dynasty drafts, considering his lower cost (fourth-round ADP) and potential path to targets.