Dynasty Range of Outcomes: 2024 Running Back Class

Welcome back to the Dynasty Range of Outcomes series. In this article, we will take a deeper look at the 2024 running back class. Although this group does not possess the elite talent we have witnessed in recent years, there are still a handful of running backs who could emerge as valuable assets for your dynasty teams.

As mentioned in the previous article, rookie analysis is a game of probability. Even though running backs generally have higher hit rates than wide receivers, there is always the possibility that a player never breaks out at the next level. However, despite the various factors that could influence their trajectory, we can still utilize historical prospect data to identify which players are more likely to break out in the NFL.

This topic might already sound familiar as Borg, Betz, and the Ballers recently discussed this on an episode of the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty podcast. In addition, last year I broke down the 2023 rookie class. To quickly recap, we will keep the analysis relatively simple by using four data points to find players that most resemble the 2024 rookie class:

• Draft Capital: This is by far the most predictive metric. It is also a reflection of team investment. The earlier a player is drafted, the more likely they are to receive an opportunity in the NFL and, therefore, break out for your dynasty teams.
• Career Production: While there are a few exceptions, players who dominate in college usually produce at the NFL level. In fact, we consistently see higher hit rates when we control the sample size for draft capital and production. For this analysis, we will use two of the most predictive college metrics: Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (Wide Receivers and Tight Ends) and Scrimmage Yards per Team Play (Running Backs). These two metrics not only factor in usage but also efficiency relative to each team’s offense. To find players who produced similarly, our analysis will apply a 15% threshold in both directions.
• Declare Status: Prospects can be classified as either early declare or non-early declare. This simply denotes that a player entered the league within three years of graduating high school. Why does this matter? We usually see higher breakout rates for players who declare early. Intuitively, this makes sense considering the most elite prospects enter the league as soon as they are eligible, with very little left to prove at the collegiate level.
• Weight: This data point has the lowest correlation to fantasy production. However, it makes sense to filter on weight to avoid comparing a player like Derrick Henry to De’Von Achane, who is over 50 pounds lighter. In this analysis, we will apply a five to ten-pound threshold in both directions to find players with similar body mass.

For a more detailed breakdown of these thresholds and metrics, check out our series primer from last off-season. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out on Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Let’s dive into the 2024 Running Back class!

Jonathon Brooks started his career as the backup to Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, which explains his lack of production at the start of his collegiate career. However, with both of them declaring for the NFL, Brooks was set to lead the Longhorns’ backfield heading in his Junior season. As the focal point of the offense, he averaged a 30% total dominator rating and an elite 2.03 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play. Equally impressive, he maintained his efficiency despite an influx of volume, finishing the season with 6.7 yards per touch. Unfortunately, Brooks’ season was cut short after he tore his ACL in November. Despite the injury, the Carolina Panthers felt comfortable enough that he could make a full recovery as they selected him with the 46th overall pick in the NFL draft. In addition, per Matthew Betz’s injury analysis in the UDK, Brooks should be cleared in time for Week 1, though he may not be 100% healthy until later in the year.

Assuming he recovers fully from his knee injury, Brooks’ player comps should provide plenty of optimism for dynasty managers. As you can see above, two of the three players on this list have produced multiple fantasy-relevant seasons. Kenneth Walker III – a top 20 running back since joining the league – is a very fitting comp as both players broke out in their third collegiate season. On the other hand, D’Andre Swift has produced multiple top 24 seasons to start his career, finishing as high as the RB12 in 2021. As for Cam Akers, he entered the league with plenty of upside, but a pair of Achilles injuries would significantly limit his production over the last four seasons. With this list in mind, assuming he remains healthy, Brooks clearly has the upside to be the most productive running back in this class. Especially since Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders are not guaranteed to return beyond this season, Brooks could assume the RB1 role in Dave Canales’ offense after his rookie year.

I mentioned earlier in the article that early-declare prospects have been the more successful group of NFL players. As a result, it should not surprise us that Trey Benson’s closest comps are slightly less impressive, especially with a marginal production profile (54th percentile) and only third-round capital. Ideally, Benson does not follow the career paths of Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Trey Sermon. The New England Patriots most recently cut Vaughn, while Sermon is on the Indianapolis Colts, buried behind Jonathan Taylor. On a positive note, Alvin Kamara presents the highest range of outcomes for Benson. Ironically, their landing spots were very similar as they both joined teams with an established, veteran running back ahead of them on the depth chart. Kamara played alongside Mark Ingram, while Benson is projected to build a committee with James Conner this season. A significant difference is that Ingram still had two years left on his contract when Kamara was drafted, while Conner is in the final year of his deal. Therefore, while Benson’s profile is far from elite, opportunity remains king for fantasy football. And if Benson can carve out a role in his rookie year, I expect him to emerge as the Cardinals’ RB1 heading into the 2025 season.

Similar to Benson, Blake Corum enters the league as a four-year prospect. However, Corum has a more accomplished production profile after accounting for over 32% of Michigan’s production in his final two seasons. He averaged 108 scrimmage yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game, operating as the focal point in a top-tier offense. As a result, his comp list offers a more balanced range of outcomes, despite being selected towards the end of the third round. And even though Jerick McKinnon and Darrell Henderson do not offer the highest upside, both players were fantasy-relevant at various points in their careers. Unfortunately, Corum’s path to opportunities is partially blocked by the presence of Kyren Williams, who still projects as the lead running back for the Rams after an RB1 campaign. In addition, with Williams still under contract through 2025, Corum’s upside will likely remain limited over the next two seasons. 

Based on their overall profile, how should we rank the top three running backs in this class? If we take into account their production, draft capital, and player comps, Brooks clearly profiles as the RB1. As for the RB2 spot, you can likely make an argument for either Corum or Benson. Considering his dominant production in college, Corum is likely the safer prospect. However, with a clearer path to immediate opportunities, Benson likely presents a higher upside for dynasty managers.

Marshawn Lloyd tends to be the forgotten prospect among the day two running back class, continuing to slip in ADP after being selected by the Green Bay Packers. Naturally, dynasty managers are not as excited about the landing spot as the Packers recently signed Josh Jacobs to a four-year deal. Keep in mind though that Jacobs’ contract is heavily front-loaded, offering several opportunities to release him in the coming seasons. For example, the Packers could opt to release him after this year, only retaining $3.1 million in dead cap and saving up to $13.5 million in cap space per season. While highly unlikely, the Packers could theoretically commit to Lloyd if Jacobs struggles to produce. The far more concerning aspect of Lloyd’s profile is his lack of elite production at USC, averaging only 1.04 Yards per Team Play. In fact, his production score ranks only in the 43rd percentile among drafted running backs since 2013. As a result, his player comps leave to much be desired as running backs with his collegiate profile rarely break out in the NFL. His ceiling is likely similar to Damien Harris, as Lloyd could become an early-down contributor and goal-line weapon for Matt LaFleur’s offense. However, as long as Jacobs is on their roster, Lloyd is unlikely to receive the three-down workload needed to be a fantasy-relevant running back for dynasty managers.

I touched on this in the Dynasty Lifecycle series, but hit rates drop significantly for day three running backs. While day two running backs break out at a 43% rate, the average day three running back hits closer to a 12% rate. So even though Braelon Allen was one of my favorite prospects in the pre-draft process, his opportunity to emerge in the NFL will likely be limited. Especially with Breece Hall set as the RB1 for the Jets, Allen will at best be the short-yardage option for their offense. Surprisingly, I struggled to find a direct comp for Allen. In fact, we have only seen a handful of running backs enter the NFL with his athletic and production profile. As a result, two of the comps on his list are nearly 10 pounds lighter. The player that resembles Allen’s profile the most is Samaje Perine – who also broke out as a true freshman, but never quite reached elite levels of production at Oklahoma. While Perine is far from an elite fantasy running back in the NFL, we have seen him produce multiple top 24 performances when given the opportunity. Allen could have a similar impact on the Jets. If Hall were to ever miss time, I believe Allen has the upside to be a top-24 running back for fantasy managers.

Kimani Vidal enters the league after an accomplished career with the Troy Trojans, averaging over 20% of his team’s scrimmage yards every season. Despite that, Vidal slipped all the way to the sixth round of the NFL draft, joining a Chargers offense that recently signed Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. As a result, his player comps offer very little hope as we rarely see sixth-round running backs emerge in the NFL. Ironically, Rex Burkhead is one of the few sixth-rounders to produce at the next level, finishing as the RB15 with the Patriots in his third season in the league. However, he would follow that up with multiple seasons outside of the top 50, which likely represents the most plausible career path for Vidal. While he does have the skillset to be a top-30 running back for fantasy managers, his draft capital will likely prevent him from receiving consistent opportunities throughout his career. As a result, even though the landing spot is somewhat intriguing (as both Edwards and Dobbins have suffered multiple injuries in recent years), I would temper expectations as Vidal’s chances of breaking out remain very slim.

Ray Davis has had a unique collegiate journey, playing for three different teams in five seasons. However, his final season at Kentucky was by far his most impressive as he accounted for over 40% of their offensive production while averaging 2.03 Yards per Team Play. Considering his consistent production, his list of comps includes some intriguing players. First off, Joe Williams, Joshua Kelley, and Kenneth Dixon represent the floor of Davis’ range of outcomes as they never broke out in the NFL. On the other hand, Jeremy Langford was a borderline RB2 in his rookie year with the Bears, while Chuba Hubbard was most recently the RB33 in 2023. However, by far the most encouraging comp would be Jamaal Williams, who most recently produced an RB10 campaign with the Lions. Regardless, most of the players on this list have been inconsistent outside of an occasional burst in production. As a result, we should temper our expectations for Davis’ career path. And even though his landing spot with the Bills could lead to immediate carries, I still expect James Cook to lead their backfield in total opportunities.