Does the “Hot Hand” Exist for RBs in Fantasy Football?

Introduction

If you haven’t read the first article in this series about the “hot hand” with WRs, check it out here!

In the world of fantasy football, the concept of the hot hand has crossed managers’ and analysts’ minds alike. Will a running back who has performed exceptionally well in recent games continue to deliver strong performances, or is this just a statistical anomaly? This article delves into the data of NFL running backs over the past six seasons to investigate whether the hot hand phenomenon exists for them in fantasy football. By examining the consistency of scoring trends among top RBs, we aim to uncover patterns that could influence draft strategies and weekly lineup decisions.

To complete this analysis, I separated backs by their designation, or whether they were a RB1 or RB2.

Trends

First, let’s take a look at the average points scored over the course of a season. There does seem to be a bit of a bump after a somewhat slow start for starting RBs — after two to three weeks, their performance improves by an average of about two points. Backup running backs seem to show relatively consistent performance throughout the season.

Next, we’ll look at the probability of a bust, or scoring under eight points. This chart looks almost like an inverse of what we just saw. The most important thing to note is that RB1s have the highest chance of underperforming in early weeks. Don’t be discouraged by a slow start!

The Hot Hand

Now let’s jump into the hot hand analysis. If an RB puts up big numbers a few weeks in a row, does this mean they are less likely to do it again in the next week? Let’s find out.

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First, given that a player had scored 10+ points in the previous three weeks, I calculated the historical probability of them scoring 10+ points in the following week (PPR scoring). The results were strong.

Data shows that running backs are likely to continue their high-performance trend in the fourth week — 74% of the time for RB1s and 59% for backups.

If we extend this question to a scenario where a back scores 10+ points five weeks straight, the results hold. RB1s have a similar chance to repeat, while historically, RB2s are even more likely to continue their run after doing so for five weeks than three. With this said, it appears RBs do get the hot hand.

When we increase the tally to 15+ points, the odds shrink. RB1s still have a 60% chance to keep their streak, but backups will likely break it.

These results hold for five weeks of 15+ points as well. This tells us that keeping the hot hand for over three to four weeks is a bit more difficult, especially for RB2s — it is nearly a coin flip on whether a backup will continue their performance.

We can reverse our thinking, and check to see whether RBs can get cold. The answer is yes. After scoring under 10 points for three weeks straight, both parties are likely to continue this trend.

This holds for five weeks straight as well. If you have a running back who is struggling, it is smart to count on them to continue underperforming.

Conclusion

Running backs are very hot and cold. They can get the hot hand, but they can also get extremely cold. Remember during your fantasy season, trust the trends with starting RBs — with rushers, the last few weeks tell us a lot. As for backups, their performance is more fickle. Even if they seem to have the hot hand, it is still a toss-up whether they will continue performing at a high level.