College Football Wednesday Best Bets for Today’s College Football Playoff Games Incl. Ohio State vs Oregon & Notre Dame vs Georgia

It’s been a long and eventful college football season, and now the best time of the year on the calendar has finally arrived. The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff has already delivered plenty of action and excitement, and the quarterfinal round has finally arrived following a 10-day break. Following a couple of packed bowl season slates over the weekend, the action continues with a trio of College Football Playoff games on Wednesday, January 1, including the Rose Bowl, Peach Bowl and Sugar Bowl. Kickoff can’t come soon enough!

It’s time to dive into Wednesday’s slate of playoff games with my college football best bets column. I’m on a 17-6 best bets run  and bowl season has been kind to me in the past, so let’s keep that momentum going this year! Let’s take a look at my top college football picks for all of the games on New Year’s Day.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Oregon Ducks Over 55 (-110)

Odds available at BetRivers Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 55.5

Perhaps the biggest game of the college football season to date comes in the form of the Rose Bowl rematch between Ohio State and Oregon. Back in October, these teams met in Autzen Stadium and produced an instant classic that was probably the best game of the regular season for my money. With that in mind, it’s entirely possible that the National Championship winner is playing in this game on New Year’s Day. And while I took the under at a similar number in the first meeting between these teams, I’m not going to make that same mistake this time around. The biggest thing that I didn’t account for heading into that October matchup was Oregon’s ability to generate explosive plays in the passing game. That’s been the constant all season long with Tez Johnson in the lineup, and I’d expect that to continue in this matchup. In fact, the Ducks explosive play rate on offense is nearly 20% with Johnson in the lineup, and the attention he draws should not only help out Evan Stewart — who had his best game of the season by far in the first meeting — but it should also free up the likes of Traeshon Holden, Terrance Ferguson and Kenyon Sadiq in the slot.

As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes defense is elite at all levels from a metrics perspective, and that reputation is largely justified given their play this season. With that said, this team has only faced an offense of Oregon’s caliber once all season long, and we all saw how that went. On the other side, the Ohio State offense is ranked 4th in EPA per play and 6th in points per drive on the season, and the Buckeyes should do more than enough to compensate for the mistakes its defense could make. The Ducks defense just struggled against Penn State at the second level, and they are obviously in for a challenge this week against the likes of Quinshon Judkins, Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and a skill position group that boasts NFL-level talent everywhere you look. Quick scoring drives could be plentiful on Wednesday, so let’s back the over in what could end up being a back-and-forth tennis match in perfect conditions for points in Pasadena.

Read our full Ohio State vs Oregon prediction 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML over Georgia Bulldogs (+110)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Notre Dame +100.

There is so much to like about this matchup on both sides of the ball, and despite the pedigree of Kirby Smart’s Georgia program, I’m actually looking to back the underdog in this meeting between two of the biggest brand names in the sport. Notre Dame was a team that I had serious questions about heading into its matchup with Indiana, but the Irish really impressed me in that game, proving that their strong statistical profile this season was not just a product of a relatively soft schedule. On the other side, the Bulldogs are going to be without quarterback Carson Beck in this game, which has created a lot of uncertainty in the market with how to accurately price Georgia heading into this game. Beck is certainly worth more to the spread than plenty of other quarterbacks across the country, especially considering what we saw from new quarterback Gunner Stockton in the second half of the SEC title game against Texas. Given that this is by far the biggest game that Stockton will be playing in, we can expect the Bulldogs offensive game plan to revolve around establishing the run early and often, which doesn’t bode well against a Notre Dame defense that is absolutely elite, sitting at 8th in success rate allowed and 9th in opponent EPA per rush on the season. The Irish are also the best defense in the nation in passing success rate allowed and 3rd in net points per drive, so it goes without saying that points should be hard to come by for Georgia on Wednesday.

Looking at the Irish offense, veteran quarterback Riley Leonard is playing his best football of the season at the perfect time, and we have seen Georgia’s defense struggle with defending mobile quarterbacks at multiple points this season, including poor efforts against Jalen Milroe, Jaxson Dart and Haynes King. With that in mind, Leonard and this dynamic Notre Dame ground game — led by all-world running back Jeremiyah Love — should be set up for consistent success in a game of this magnitude. Georgia’s defense is still strong, but this is not the same unit as dominant Bulldog teams of year’s past. This is a game that should come down to the final moments, so let’s grab the plus-money with the Irish money line to knock off the Bulldogs and advance to the semifinal round.

Find out our Notre Dame vs Georgia prediction 

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