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CFP Playoff Predictions – Who Will Progress Past the First Round?

December 18, 2024
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The CFP Playoff odds for the 2024-25 edition are out, as we now have 12 teams battling for the national title! Four teams have a bye: Oregon, Arizona State, Boise State, and Georgia. That leaves eight schools to fight it out in the first round.

I have some CFP Playoff predictions for you, with point-spread, moneyline, and over/under picks for you to sift through! Let’s start with an overview of the latest lines, before I dissect each game and share my betting picks.

CFP Playoff Round 1 Betting Lines and Key Info

Matchup Lines Date and Time Location
Indiana Hoosiers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame -7
Total: 51		 December 20, 2024 8:00 p.m. EDT Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN
SMU Mustangs at Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State -8.5
Total: 54		 December 21, 2024 12:00 p.m. EDT Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
Clemson Tigers at Texas Longhorns Texas -12
Total: 51.5		 December 21, 2024 4:00 p.m. EDT DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin. TX
Tennessee Volunteers at Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State -7
Total: 47		 December 21, 2024 8:00 p.m. EDT Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH

These CFP Playoff odds for Round 1 are courtesy of Bovada, and you can find them by going to Sports > Football > College Football.

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Indiana vs. Notre Dame Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Indiana Hoosiers +7.5 (-115) +255 Over 51 (-115)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -7.5 (-105) -310 Under 51 (-105)

#7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The #7 Fighting Irish finished the season 11-1, only losing a 16-14 game to Northern Illinois at home way back on September 7th. They beat three ranked teams in Louisville, Navy, and Army throughout the season, but that really isn’t a murderer’s row of teams.

The Fighting Irish were third in the country with 39.8 points per game, largely due to a strong ground game. Running back Jeremiyah Love led the team with 949 yards and 15 touchdowns, while quarterback Riley Leonard was next with 721 yards and 14 scores.

On the flip side, Notre Dame was third in points allowed, and seventh in yards allowed. The Fighting Irish were also third in opponent passing yards, and they’re second in turnover margin per game. Safety Xavier Watts led the way with 50 tackles and five picks.

#10 Indiana Hoosiers

Despite being in the Big Ten, the Hoosiers finished 11-1, but they had a worse schedule than their state rivals from Notre Dame. They played one ranked team all season, and that resulted in a 38-15 loss at Ohio State on November 23rd.

Thanks to that schedule, the Hoosiers were second in the nation in points per game at 40.3. But when they ran into a great Ohio State defense, Indiana managed a meager 153 yards, and quarterback Kurtis Rourke had just 68 passing yards.

Indiana was sixth in points allowed, but again, their schedule didn’t really test them. They’ll need a big game from defensive end Mikail Kamara, who had 10 sacks and has to get into the backfield.

CFP Playoff Prediction for Hoosiers vs. Fighting Irish

The matchup of this game is between Notre Dame’s rushing attack, and Indiana’s rush defense, which is the best in the country. But I’m giving the nod to the Fighting Irish to run the ball and win the clock battle against the Hoosiers, which will also lead to a low-scoring game to kick off the CFP Playoff predictions!

Indiana vs. Notre Dame CFP Playoff Predictions for Round 1:

  • Points Spread Bet: Notre Dame -7.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline Bet: Notre Dame (-340)
  • Over/Under Bet: Under 54 (-110)

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SMU vs. Penn State Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

Team Spread Moneyline Total
SMU Mustangs +8.5 (-110) +270 Over 54 (-110)
Penn State Nittany Lions -8.5 (-110) -340 Under 54(-110)

#6 Penn State Nittany Lions

The Nittany Lions closed out the regular season at 11-2, as they lost to Ohio State 20-13 at home on November 2nd, and then 45-37 to Oregon in the Big Ten title game. But outside of that, Penn State took care of business.

Penn State was 16th in the nation in rushing offense, powered by the two-headed running-back monster of Nicholas Singleton (838 yards) and Kaytron Allen (822 yards). Both had over 100 yards against Oregon, but the defense couldn’t get any stops.

The Nittany Lions finished fifth in the NCAA in opponent yards per game, but they were lit up by the Ducks. It’ll be interesting to see if they can handle the Mustangs.

#11 SMU Mustangs

The Mustangs were 11-2 in their ACC debut, and went to the conference title game, where they were edged out on a last-season field goal in a 34-31 loss to Clemson. SMU also lost 18-15 at home to BYU back on September 6, but they did beat Louisville and Pittsburgh when they were ranked.

Running back Brashard Smith ran for 1,270 yards and 14 touchdowns for the Mustangs, while quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for 3,050 yards, 22 touchdowns, and eight picks. SMU was 23rd in the nation in yards per game, and 30th in yards allowed per game. This is a balanced team on both sides of the ball, and they can make things intriguing for the blueblood Nittany Lions!

CFP Playoff Prediction for Mustangs vs. Nittany Lions

I do think that Penn State will inevitably win the game, but SMU has the chops to cover the 8.5-point CFP Playoff odds on the road! Penn State head coach James Franklin has consistently struggled in big games during his time in “Happy Valley”.

SMU counterpart Rhett Lashlee hasn’t shown any fear going against big programs. I think this game will go under 54 points at online sportsbooks as well, as both teams have good defenses.

SMU vs. Penn State CFP Playoff Predictions for Round 1:

  • Points Spread Bet: SMU +8.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline Bet: Penn State (-340)
  • Over/Under Bet: Under 54 (-110)

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Clemson vs. Texas Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Clemson Tigers +12 (-110) +350 Over 51.5 (-115)
Texas Longhorns -12 (-110) -480 Under 51.5 (-105)

#5 Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns finished 11-2, but they’ll be left to rue what might have been after two losses to Georgia. The first was a 30-15 loss at home on October 19th, and the second was a 22-19 overtime loss in the SEC title game on December 7. They were so close to running away with the title in their debut SEC season, but Texas couldn’t solve Georgia, who lost two quarterbacks in the title game. The Longhorns are still second in the NCAA title odds, tied with the Bulldogs and Ohio State.

Texas was second in the country in both opponent points per game, and yards allowed per game. They’re sure to send a few defensive players to the NFL next season. But the onus is on quarterback Quinn Ewers, who was bad in the two Georgia losses.

In the SEC title game, the offensive line failed Ewers, who was sacked six times. They’ll have to be much better against Clemson. But Ewers has to go through his reads faster and throw the ball away occasionally.

#12 Clemson Tigers

The Tigers eked out a win in the ACC title game over SMU, putting a bow on a 10-3 regular season. They also felt the wrath of Georgia, losing 34-3 at home to open the season. Clemson also lost 33-21 to Louisville, and 17-14 to their rivals from South Carolina. All of those losses came at home in “Death Valley.

Clemson is 13th in yards per game, and quarterback Cade Klubnik was outstanding, throwing for 3,303 yards, 33 touchdowns, and just five interceptions! Running back Phil Mafah ran for 1,106 yards and eight touchdowns, while Klubnik added 458 yards and seven scores on the ground.

The questions come on the defensive side of the ball, where Clemson was 56th in yards allowed per game, and tied for 39th in points allowed. The Tigers didn’t even have to play Miami’s high-scoring attack in the ACC. That doesn’t bode well for Clemson.

CFP Playoff Prediction for Tigers vs. Longhorns

While Ewers has had his issues this season, I’m taking Texas to both win and cover the spread, simply because their defense is fantastic. Clemson hasn’t played a defense like this all season, and if the offensive line doesn’t protect Klubnik, it’s going to be a long day for head coach Dabo Swinney.

I’m also going to take the under on the total points, but only slightly. I think Texas scores at least 30 points, and holds Clemson to 14 or less in my CFP Playoff predictions for 2024.

Clemson vs. Texas CFP Playoff Predictions for Round 1:

  • Points Spread Bet: Texas Longhorns -12 (-110)
  • Moneyline Bet: Texas Longhorns (-480)
  • Over/Under Bet: Under 52 (-115)

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Tennessee vs. Ohio State Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Tennessee Volunteers +7 (-105) +235 Over 47 (-105)
Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (-115) -285 Under 47 (-115)

#8 Ohio State Buckeyes

The Buckeyes missed out on a chance to play in the Big Ten title game with a crushing 13-10 home loss to Michigan. Not only did the Buckeyes lose to their biggest rivals (sparking an on-field brawl in the process), but they were favored by 21 points at home at college football betting sites. Ohio State is still 10-2, but they missed out on a chance to avenge a 32-31 loss at Oregon on October 12th.

The Buckeyes topped the nation in yards allowed per game, and points allowed per game. However, quarterback Will Howard is inconsistent, and he was downright awful against Michigan. The Buckeyes are sixth in the country on the ground, so it might be prudent to lean on running backs Quinshon Judkins (805 yards) and TreVeyon Henderson (751 yards).

Still, all eyes will be on Howard in Columbus.

#9 Tennessee Volunteers

The Volunteers finished 10-2 on the regular season, falling 19-14 at Arkansas on October 5th, and 31-17 at Georgia on November 16th. All things considered, it was a good year for Tennessee, especially with a freshman quarterback in Nico Iamaleavea.

Iamaleava got plenty of help as running back Dylan Sampson racked up 1,485 yards and 22 touchdowns on the ground. The Vols also have a gritty defense that was fourth in the nation in points allowed per game, and sixth in yards allowed.

But how will Iamaleava handle the pressure of a CFP playoff game? In the Vols’ losses, he didn’t hurt them, but Iamaleava couldn’t make enough plays to win the game. He’s going up against arguably the best defense in the country in Ohio State, but the Vols have a terrific defense of their own.

CFP Playoff Prediction for Volunteers vs. Buckeyes

I’ll give the edge in my CFP playoff predictions to Ohio State on the moneyline, but I think the Tennessee defense is good enough to keep this closer than a touchdown. Ohio State head coach Ryan Day is probably fighting for his job after losing to Michigan again, and the game is in Columbus. “The Horseshoe” will be rocking, and I think Iamaleava might struggle here.

Furthermore, take the under with two amazing defenses going toe-to-toe. I think this is close to a sure think in my CFP Playoff predictions.

Tennessee vs. Ohio State CFP Playoff Predictions for Round 1:

  • Points Spread Bet: Tennessee +7 (-105)
  • Moneyline Bet: Ohio State (-285)
  • Over/Under Bet: Under 47 (-115)

Wager at Bovada

Where to Bet on CFP Playoff Odds?

You have my best CFP playoff predictions, based on the odds, and there are several parlay bets you can make. Mix and match some point-spread bets with some moneyline bets, and throw a couple totals bets for good measure to increase your betting value!

You can bet on all of these CFP playoff odds for 2024 at Bovada, where you’ll also find lines for every single game during college bowl season! You’ll also receive a fantastic online sportsbook bonus of 100% matched, up to $1,000 on your first deposit. Simply use the promo code, BV1000, and you’re off to the races!


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