Bucs vs. Eagles: Pewter Predictions For NFC Wild Card Round

BUCS vs. EAGLES

WHEN: Monday, January 15, 2024 | WHERE: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL) | KICKOFF: 8:00 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN/ABC

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Joe Buck | ANALYST: Troy Aikman | SIDELINE: Laura Rutledge & Lisa Salters

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: Chase McLaughlin Wins It For Tampa Bay

Bucs kicker Chase McLaughlin has shown us all season what perfection looks like. He has made every single field goal attempt that has crossed the line of scrimmage. His only two “misses” were actually blocked field goal attempts.

I’ve seen a lot of bad kickers in my 28 years of covering Tampa Bay football. I’ve also seen some damn good ones in Martin Gramatica and Ryan Succop – both of whom helped the franchise win Super Bowls. McLaughlin will nail a game-winner in the fourth quarter and the Bucs will beat the Eagles and advance in the playoffs.

This game features two teams heading in opposite directions. The Bucs have momentum, winning an NFC South championship last week, and five of their last six games. That 23-13 loss to New Orleans the last time Tampa Bay took the field at Raymond James Stadium should serve as a good reminder that the Bucs need to win the battle in the trenches to come away victorious.

The Eagles have lost five of their last six and are limping into the playoffs without any momentum. This is some dissent going on in Philly right now and the Eagles are not playing as a team. Several of the team’s stars and starters are dealing with injuries, including quarterback Jalen Hurts and wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. They’ll play, but how effective will they be?

Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield is on the mend from his ribs and ankle injury and was throwing better on Friday than he has in two weeks in terms of velocity and accuracy. Mayfield and the Bucs defense will do enough for Tampa Bay to get in position to let “Money” McLaughlin, who scored all nine of the team’s points in last week’s victory in Carolina, win it in the end.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 23, Eagles 20
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 10-7

Matt Matera: In A Slugfest Game, The Bucs Lose A Close One

This game is going to be closer than the 25-11 game between the Bucs and Eagles that they had in Week 3. What is going to be similar, though, is that it’ll be relatively low-scoring. One of these offenses isn’t showing up, it’s just a matter of which one. The Bucs are trending in the right direction having won five of six, while the Eagles have lost five of six. But I don’t think that matters as much when the playoffs start.

On one side, the Bucs that failed to score a touchdown in their last game and have scored two touchdowns in their last eight quarters, both coming in the fourth quarter in Week 18. Baker Mayfield has two injuries, the Bucs’ pass blocking has regressed and there hasn’t been a flow to the team’s game plan. 

On the other side, the Eagles have tons of injuries to their offense with Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, who was just announced as out for the game. Plus Brown has deleted all of his Eagles related content off of his social media. Although the Eagles have lost a lot lately, they’ve still put up points. 

I’d love to see the Bucs get back to involving Rachaad White in the passing game. Saquon Barkley just torched the Eagles last week that way and the Bucs should do similar with White. The Eagles, on the other hand, will attempt to run it successfully like they did in Week 3. 

There’s many questions for both team’s defenses as well. Tampa Bay has to dominate with their blitzes to create sacks and turnovers or they’ll be toast. Look for many defensive back blitzes from first time All-Pro Antoine Winfield Jr. as the Eagles struggle with that pressure. Philadelphia has a great interior front but many issues on the back end. 

This game may come down to the last possession because I don’t think either group will fully be able to take advantage of the other’s inefficiencies. As many problems as they’ve had, the Eagles still have better players to get them the win late in the evening.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Eagles 22, Bucs 20
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 10-7

Bailey Adams: Bucs’ Improbable Run Lasts Another Week

I’ve been finding this game exceptionally difficult to call. The Eagles are the better, more talented team. But they’re also more banged up and they’ve lost five of their last six games. They’re trending in the wrong direction.

The Bucs, on the other hand, won five of their last six games and are trending up. The Week 17 loss to the Saints and Week 18 win over the Panthers were big steps back from the team’s four-game winning streak, though, so Baker Mayfield and Co. will need to rediscover some of that December magic as the playoffs begin.

The Eagles will try to control the trenches and if they succeed with that the way they did back in Week 3, they’re going to advance to the NFC Divisional Round despite recent trends. But if the Bucs can manage and hold their own on both sides of the line of scrimmage, they’ll give themselves a shot.

Tampa Bay should be able to take advantage of Philly’s badly struggling defense, which finished the season ranked 30th in points allowed per game. If they can get Rachaad White going in the run game and short passing game, it’ll help open things up for Mayfield and the passing game to push the ball down the field against the Eagles’ 31st-ranked pass defense.

Todd Bowles has done a good job against Jalen Hurts in the past and I think the Buccaneer defense will hold up well again this time around as long as the group fits the run well enough to avoid a monster day from the Philly backfield.

It almost feels like I’m falling into a trap here by believing in the Bucs against a team that is supposed to be more talented and just made a run to the Super Bowl last year. But I’m gonna do it anyway.

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Eagles 20
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 9-8

Josh Queipo: Bucs Fall To Familiar Foe

The vibes between these two are completely in the Bucs favor. Philadelphia is 1-5 over its past six games. Tampa Bay is 5-1. The Eagles suffered multiple injuries at the end of the regular season. The Bucs have one very big injury issue (Baker Mayfield), but are otherwise getting healthier. Philly’s defense is allowing almost 29 points per game over their last five contests, whereas the Bucs defense has hit quite the groove, allowing just 16 points per game over the same timeframe.

But I still can’t get over the trench matchups. The Eagles defensive line, particularly in the middle is overwhelmingly better than the Bucs interior offensive line. Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Fletcher Cox, and Milton Williams represent a group that is far superior in talent to Aaron Stinnie, Robert Hainsey and Cody Mauch. The mismatch is likely to cause Mayfield to have to run, scramble and move more than usual.

A fully healthy Mayfield has proven he is better at that than previously thought. But this isn’t a fully healthy Mayfield. Between bruised ribs and a bum ankle, his mobility is likely to be a hindrance rather than a strength. That all adds up to a recipe of a low-scoring output from the Bucs offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Bucs have had difficulties getting after the passer on a consistent basis this year. There have been bright spots in small sample sizes. Shaq Barrett early in the season, and YaYa Diaby of late to name a couple. But the Bucs have lived by the blitz and died by the blitz throughout most of the season.

In their first meeting, the Bucs blitzed Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts on 75% of his drop backs (27 times). That is an absurd number. And they were only able to generate pressure on 10 of those 27 blitzes.

Part of the reason the Bucs were not able to get many pressures is because the Eagles’ offensive line is still awesome. Led by bookend tackles Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson, plus future Hall of Famer Jason Kelce, it’s just plain hard to beat the Eagles up front. This could lead to success for Hurts and the Eagles passing attack and an established run game.

You hear it all the time in football. You win in the trenches. And the Eagles match up extremely well there, which most likely will lead to a home playoff loss for the Bucs for the second straight season.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Eagles 24, Bucs 13
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 11-6

Adam Slivon: Bucs Survive Primetime To Advance In Playoffs

Playoff football is here. After a 9-8 season filled with ups and downs, the Bucs won the NFC South and line up to face the Eagles. While these two teams played each other way back in Week 3, they are not the same teams from back then. Instead, they trended in opposite directions to close out the regular season.

For the Bucs, they have won five out of their last six games and have been continuing to develop and grow through the ups and downs. When looking at how they match up with the Eagles, it is clear that Philadelphia has more talent, especially in the trenches. Still, they have regressed as the season has gone on, losing five out of their last six games. With that in mind, anything can happen in this playoff matchup.

With both Baker Mayfield (ankle/ribs) and Jalen Hurts (right finger) going through some injuries and considering it could be rainy on Monday night, this game could come down to how much success Rachaad White and D’Andre Swift have on the ground.

Tampa Bay’s run game has struggled on-and-off this season, and White had just 38 rushing yards on 14 carries facing Philadelphia the first time. To have more success this time around, it would serve the offense well designing runs to get him outside the tackles and away from the likes of Jalen Carter, Fletcher Cox, and Jordan Davis. Being able to have a run game will be critical in controlling the tempo and having long scoring drives. 

By comparison, that is exactly what Swift did the first time around. He had 16 carries for 130 rushing yards, averaging over eight yards a carry. His performance was a big factor, but the Bucs’ run defense has some reinforcements in Calijah Kancey, YaYa Diaby, and a healthier Devin White. Kancey did not play in Week 3, while Diaby had not yet emerged as a starter. For White, he is healthier than he was then after playing through a hamstring injury. Plus, he could step his game up in the playoffs for what could be his final ride with the team.

Looking at how I see this game going, I don’t see either the Bucs or Eagles coming out flat-out dominating based on their recent play evening the stakes. I expect a back-and-forth game with a lot of runs and short passes. Bucs players have spoken this week about coming out and being more physical, as they were overmatched in that regard the first time around. This time, I predict Tampa Bay will fight its way through a hard-fought game to knock Philadelphia out of the playoffs.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 20, Eagles 17
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 12-5

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