Bucs Playoff Update: Week 17 – Back On Top Of NFC South!

A lot can change over the course of one Sunday in the NFL. Last week, a Falcons win over the Giants on Sunday afternoon combined with a Bucs loss to the Cowboys on Sunday night cost the Bucs control of their destiny in the NFC South race.

As much as that hurt for Tampa Bay, the reality that a lot can change in one Sunday remained the same heading into Week 17. In fact, there was a chance for the roles to be reversed, with the Bucs playing in the afternoon while the Falcons had the Sunday Night Football slot against the Commanders. With a win over the Panthers and a Falcons loss to the Commanders, the Bucs would be right back atop the division heading into the final weekend of the regular season. Not only that, but Tampa Bay would have a win-and-in scenario in its finale.

Bucs WR Mike Evans, RB Bucky Irving and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs took care of their part first, storming out to a 27-7 lead over the Panthers in the first half before going on to win 48-14. Baker Mayfield had as many incompletions as he did touchdown passes, finishing 27-of-32 for 359 yards and five touchdowns. Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan both caught two touchdowns, while Bucky Irving surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing mark while posting 190 all-purpose yards. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay defense racked up five sacks and held Carolina to 2-of-9 on third down and just 203 total yards.

With the win, the Bucs improved to 9-7, matching their win total from 2023 with one game left to play. They also put some pressure on the Falcons heading into their Sunday night matchup with the Commanders, as they went into play knowing they’d need a win to stay atop the division and maintain control of their destiny.

Once Tampa Bay took care of its business, all it could do was watch as a Sunday Night Football thriller unfolded between Atlanta and Washington. The Falcons went up 17-7 heading into halftime, but the Commanders controlled the ball and the game in the second half on their way to a 21-17 lead. But after having to settle for a field goal inside the 5-yard line to make it a seven-point game, Washington let Atlanta back into it, with Michael Penix Jr. leading a game-tying touchdown drive. A late missed field goal by Falcons backup kicker Riley Patterson then sent the game to overtime.

And in overtime, the Bucs got the help they needed. As much as the Falcons might’ve lived by the NFL’s overtime rules in their Week 5 win over the Bucs, they died by those same rules on Sunday night as Jayden Daniels led the Commanders down the field for a game-winning touchdown without Penix and the Atlanta offense getting to touch the ball again.

With that Commanders victory, control of the NFC South is back in the Bucs’ hands.

Here’s an updated look at the NFC South standings through Week 17:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7 (3-2 in the NFC South)
Atlanta Falcons 8-8 (4-1 in the NFC South)
New Orleans Saints 5-11 (2-3 in the NFC South)
Carolina Panthers 4-12 (1-4 in the NFC South)

Now, with a win over the Saints at home in Week 18, the Bucs will capture a fourth straight NFC South title and the Falcons will once again miss out on the playoffs. Tampa Bay would also clinch the division with an Atlanta loss to Carolina, but it’s best for Todd Bowles and his squad to take care of its own business on its home field.

Where The Bucs Now Stand In The NFC Playoff Picture

With the Bucs back in first place in the NFC South, they currently own the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoff picture. More on them in a minute.

Lions HC Dan Campbell and Bucs HC Todd Bowles- Photo by: USA Today

Let’s get the to-be-determined stuff out of the way regarding the No. 1 seed in the NFC heading into Week 18. As of publication time, the Vikings hold the top spot in the NFC at 14-2 thanks to their 27-25 win over the Packers on Sunday afternoon. For the time being, that technically bumps the Lions down to the No. 5 seed, which is the top wild card spot. But that’s only because Detroit plays on Monday Night Football, hitting the road to take on the already-eliminated 49ers.

Regardless of what the Lions do on Monday night, the race for the NFC North crown and the No. 1 seed in the NFC will come down to next week, as the Lions and Vikings will match up in Detroit. The winner of that game will earn the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye, while the loser will be the top wild card team and face the NFC’s No. 4 seed.

The Eagles destroyed the Cowboys 41-7 on Sunday, clinching the NFC East title and the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. As of right now, they would host the No. 7 seed Packers on Super Wild Card Weekend.

The Rams beat the Cardinals 13-9 on Saturday night, picking up another ugly win to hold on to the No. 3 seed in the NFC with one week left to play. With the way the current playoff picture looks, Los Angeles would host No. 6 seed Washington in the first round of the playoffs.

But if the Rams lose to the Seahawks in Week 18 and the Bucs beat the Saints to clinch the NFC South, the Bucs would claim the No. 3 seed in the NFC via the conference record tiebreaker

As mentioned before, the first wild card spot will go to the loser of next week’s game between the Vikings and Lions. As of now, that team would be heading to Tampa to take on the Bucs.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels – Photo by: USA Today

With the Commanders’ win on Sunday night and the Packers’ loss to the Vikings, the Commanders are now in possession of the No. 6 seed and can clinch that spot with a win next week.

Here’s a look at the full NFC Playoff Picture through Week 17:

1. Vikings – 14-2 (NFC North leader)
2. Eagles – 13-3 (NFC East leader)
3. Rams – 10-6 (NFC West leader)
4. Bucs – 9-7 (NFC South leader)
5. Lions – 13-2 (NFC Wild Card No. 1)*
6. Commanders – 11-5 (NFC Wild Card No. 2)
7. Packers – 11-5 (NFC Wild Card No. 3)
——–In the Hunt——–
8. Falcons – 8-8

*Lions still to play at 49ers on Monday Night Football

NFL.com currently gives the Bucs a 81% chance to make the playoffs.

The Bucs will host the Saints at 1:00 p.m. next Sunday, and a win will secure them a home playoff game on Super Wild Card Weekend.