Bucs Organizational Outlook: WRs, TEs

To say the Bucs season has been a rollercoaster thus far would be quite the fair assessment. And they are only five games into the campaign. To date only one game has seemingly gone “to plan.” Tampa Bay’s Week 1 victory over the Washington Commanders did not rock the football world.

Since then, the Bucs have experienced highs and lows on a week-in, week-out basis that would give an EKG for a patient with tachycardia a run for it’s money. A surprising win in Detroit, followed by a flat performance against Denver. Then Tampa Bay rounded out their current 3-2 schedule with a resounding win over the Eagles before collapsing late against the Falcons.

The inconsistent nature of the team’s game-by-game results paired with the relative brevity of the season so far can lead to overreactions in terms of what is right, and wrong, with the current composition of the team as well as the near and long-term outlooks of each position group. So, with 30% of the regular season in the books I wanted to take a look at each position group through both a short and long-term lens while the Bucs try to get healthy on their mini bye following an emotional Thursday Night Football game.

Today we will look at the wide receivers and tight ends. Tomorrow will feature the offensive and defensive lines.

Wide Receiver

Very few pass-catching duos are as productive as the Mike Evans/Chris Godwin tandem. Through five games the Bucs top two receivers are averaging a combined 2.07 yards per route run. That’s seventh in the NFL among the top two route runners for each team. And Evans and Godwins combined 132.4 receiving yards per game is 6th most in the league.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

The two have complimentary skill sets that allow each other to thrive and Coen has a real knack for utilizing the two well. Godwin is experiencing a career renaissance of sorts, as he is on pace for 109 catches for 1,312 yards and 10 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Evans is a bit off his annual 1,000-yard pace, but he is averaging a touchdown per game and has over 150 yards in his last two games.

 Key Stat: 0.8

Beyond those two, things get more interesting. Rookie sensation Jalen McMillan scored a touchdown in the season opener but was largely quiet over the next two games before missing Weeks 4 and 5 due to injury. But prior to injury he was struggling to integrate into the Bucs offense. His 0.8 yards per route run is currently ninth of 12 players who have run a route for the Bucs this season. He has caught just 50% of his six targets and struggled to help in the run game as an add-on blocker.

Trey Palmer saw additional looks in Week 4, making an improbable catch for a touchdown early in the Eagles game. Palmer would leave early from that game with an injury of his own. In his limited work this year Palmer has looked better than the rookie McMillan and his efficiency metrics seem to agree. Palmer leads McMillan in yards per route run, catch rate, catch rate over expected and target rate.

But the most intriguing option for the Bucs at this point is Sterling Shepard. The former Giant has always been a talented receiver. He’s just struggled with health and mis-assignment of role. After being called upon following Palmer’s injury he has shown the most tantalizing potential as an additional layer to the Bucs receiving corps, catching four passes for 55 yards and a touchdown over just 55 routes.

Short And Long-Term Outlooks

In the short term, the Bucs should prioritize offensive efficiency. Now that Sterling Shepard is on the active roster, he should be included in the majority of the three receiver sets going forward. Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan should see some but limited action if all receivers are healthy. That’s not to say the Bucs should give up on either young pass catcher. Both have promise but aren’t as prepared to help the offense as Shepard right now.

This position group could see major turnover in the next 17 months. Chris Godwin is a pending free agent, and his current level of play would have him worth $28 million per season or more on his next contract. The Bucs may opt to keep the rejuvenated receiver, but it will likely require considerable resources.

If they do not retain Godwin, Palmer or McMillan would need to take a big step forward next season. Given his rapport with Baker Mayfield and scant-other players needing large investments next year, I’d advocate for shelling out the money to keep Godwin. And with Mike Evans set to turn 32 next August, there is no true “X” receiver to step into that role if and when he moves on. Receiver could be high on the Bucs’ priority list come next off-season.

Tight End

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

Cade Otton’s 2024 campaign has gone much like the two seasons that preceded it. Some fair solid, but unspectacular play as a receiver interspersed with some extremely inconsistent blocking. And while the blocking is better this year, his inconsistencies seem to show up at the worst possible times.

Amongst 21 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 15th in target rate, 17th in yards per route run, ninth in yards after catch per reception and 10th in catch rate. He would work best as a fourth or fifth option in an offense. Right now, he is third in targets for the Bucs. That has to change.

Payne Durham has been used sparingly this year, playing just a quarter of the offensive snaps and running just 15 routes. That has left Otton to play an incredible 94% of the team’s offensive snaps.

 Key Stat: 4.3%

Cade Otton’s yards after catch per reception rank is quite high because just 4.3% of his targets have been over 10 air yards on the season. Compare that to 24.5% in 2023 and 21.7% in 2022. Liam Coen is clearly using Otton in a different manner than former offensive coordinators Byron Leftwich and Dave Canales did. And the results are marginally improved.

But Otton isn’t a difference-maker. He can pop here and there for a few catches, but he’s not the volume driver that can sustain the offense if Chris Godwin or Mike Evans were to go down – even for a game.

Short And Long-Term Outlooks

Cade Otton is the clear starter for the rest of the season and none of the players behind him are viable options to supplant. Otton is neither a positive nor negative modifier. He’s adequate.

But next season the team needs to make a concerted effort to upgrade their third option in the passing game. In theory, the tight end position isn’t a big part of the passing game and shouldn’t be one that requires a large investment. With that said, Otton is a low-end starter who probably profiles more as a very good No. 2.

If the Bucs can find or develop a quality third receiver, then he is a perfectly fine option to finish his rookie contract as the starting tight end. But Jason Licht and the front office can certainly open up the creativity jar by looking to upgrade Otton and keep the tight end as the third-most voluminous option if they so desire.