Bucs Mailbag: Questions About Bucs Draft, Mike Evans

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Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds answers your questions from the @PewterReport Twitter account each week in the Bucs Mailbag. Submit your question to the Bucs Mailbag each week via Twitter using the hashtag #PRMailbag.  Here are the Bucs questions we chose to answer for this week’s edition.

QUESTION: Barring any trades, how will the Bucs draft choices shake out by position? Might there be multiple draft choices by position?

ANSWER: It’s a little difficult to say right now, as free agency hasn’t even begun yet. But let’s imagine the best-case scenario takes place and the Bucs’ big free agent five – wide receiver Mike Evans, quarterback Baker Mayfield, safety Antoine Winfield Jr., linebacker Lavonte David and kicker Chase McLaughlin are all re-signed. And let’s also suppose that the Bucs don’t really do much more in free agency than that, as they might have to pay top dollar for Evans and Mayfield.

The Bucs have obvious holes at strong safety, as Ryan Neal won’t be re-signed, and at left guard, as Matt Feiler won’t be back, either. Aaron Stinnie may be re-signed for depth on a cheap, one-year deal, but the left guard job will be open competition.

Tampa Bay is also expected to part ways with veteran outside linebacker Shaq Barrett, who turns 32 in the fall and is in decline. With Joe Tryon-Shoyinka not getting his fifth-year option picked up, the Bucs will need to restock the outside linebacker position. Those three positions – safety, guard and outside linebacker – are expected to be the primary needs Tampa Bay will address in the draft if not in free agency.

Even if Evans re-signs with the Bucs, he’ll be 31 in the fall, and Chris Godwin is entering a contract year. With Tampa Bay expected to release Russell Gage in a cap-cutting move, the team will also likely take advantage of a very deep wide receiver draft to restock the room and add competition for Trey Palmer.

The Bucs have seven draft picks this year, including the expected seventh-round compensatory selection. If Tampa Bay is going to double up on a position this year, I would suspect it might be interior offensive line (guard and center) and perhaps wide receiver – just because of the sheer depth at the position.

QUESTION: Do you think there’s a chance that the Bucs could trade out of the first round? I feel like it could be a real possibility if there’s no strong EDGE or O-line options on the board at No. 26.

ANSWER: Yes, if a Bucs’ top target is no longer on the board at No. 26 worthy of that selection – or if there are multiple targets still available – I could see Tampa Bay trade down. That’s what happened in 2022 when the Bucs were down to Georgia defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt, Georgia safety Lewis Cine and Houston defensive tackle Logan Hall with the No. 27 pick.

The Bucs decided to trade down from the No. 27 pick to the No. 33 selection because they still had three players they liked on the board and one of them would still be available with the top pick in the second round. That player wound up being Hall.

Tampa Bay could be in a similar situation this year with the No. 26 pick. There is value in trading down and acquiring more draft capital – even if it’s trading down into the second round. But there is also value in drafting a player in the first round because of the fifth-year option down the road.

We’ll see what happens when the Bucs are on the clock. But the value in this draft is really on Day 2, and I could see general manager Jason Licht wanting to pick up an extra third-round pick if possible.

QUESTION: In need of a pass rusher, could Khalil Mack be an option for the Bucs. He would be a short-term bridge option while the Bucs find their long-term answer at the position. At age 33, he might only get a cheaper deal at this point. Thoughts?

ANSWER: Price will be the biggest consideration for the Bucs if they sign a veteran edge rusher in free agency. First of all, Khalil Mack is still under contract with the Chargers for the 2024 season, although he could be a salary cap casualty if they decide to move on and clean up their cap situation. But in doing so, Los Angeles would be without one of its star players.

If Mack did hit free agency, I don’t think he would come cheap at all – even at age 33. He’s coming off a monster year in which he recorded a career-high 17 sacks and forced five fumbles.

Mack, who had the first sack against Bucs offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs, also had 74 tackles and 22 QB hits and he made the Pro Bowl. Mack has started all 17 games in each of the last two years and shows no signs of slowing down. After recording eight sacks in his first year in L.A. in 2022, he more than doubled that total this past season.

If the Bucs were to go with a veteran edge rusher in free agency it would be a cheaper option like New England’s Josh Uche, Miami’s Andrew Van Ginkel or perhaps Dorance Armstrong if the market is softer than anticipated.

QUESTION: Why wouldn’t the Bucs use the franchise tag on Mike Evans and sign Antoine Winfield Jr. to a long-term deal? Is there anything in his contract that he can’t be tagged?

ANSWER: The reason why the Bucs will be using their franchise tag on Antoine Winfield Jr. is simply due to price. The franchise tag amount for safeties is just $17.123 million, while the franchise tag amount for wide receivers is $21.816 million.

But it’s actually more than that for Mike Evans. There is a rule in place that states that if a team uses the franchise tag on a player but the franchise tag amount is lower than the cap value of that player from the previous year, the player is due 120% of that value.

Evans’ cap value in 2023 was $23,698,500, which is higher than the franchise tag amount. So the franchise tag for Evans would be $28,438,200, which is about $7.5 million more it would be for other wide receivers. And it’s over $11 million more than Winfield’s franchise tag would cost.

Keep in mind that once a player is franchised, he has to play on that fixed amount unless a long-term contract extension is reached prior to the deadline of July 17. It’s a rigid amount that takes up a significant amount of cap space and can’t be restructured downward to save cap space.

With Winfield likely resetting the safety market with a new long-term contract worth $20 million per year, the Bucs will actually be saving some money in the short term with Winfield under contract for just over $17 million. And with Winfield taking the franchise tag instead of Evans, that’s going to allow the Bucs more cap flexibility in March.

QUESTION: Do you think that the upcoming draft being deep with wide receivers may deter teams from overpaying free agent receivers like Mike Evans when they can just go out and draft one or two really good ones for less than half the price to sign Evans? This could play in Tampa Bay’s favor in keeping him.

ANSWER: I think the Bucs are banking on that fact. There will also be some good receivers in free agency, such as Jacksonville’s Calvin Ridley, Buffalo’s Gabe Davis, and Cincinnati’s Tyler Boyd, who are younger and will come cheaper than Evans, too. But yes, this year’s draft class at wide receiver is quite robust.

There could be as many as six or seven wide receivers in the first round this year, including Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU’s Malik Nabers, Washington’s Rome Odunze, LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. and Oregon’s Troy Franklin. Texas’ Adonai Mitchell, Florida State’s Keon Coleman and Georgia’s Ladd McConkey could also sneak into the bottom of the first round.

The thing to keep in mind with Evans is that he turns 31 in August. All of the big money deals he’s chasing from Las Vegas’ Davante Adams ($28 million), L.A.’s Cooper Kupp ($26.7 million) and Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown ($25 million) were all signed before those players played their age-30 seasons. Evans is a year older than Adams and Kupp were when they inked those big extensions, so he’s in a bit of uncharted waters.

Between his age, the free agent wide receivers available, and the extremely deep and talented draft class at the position, the Bucs hope that Evans’ market is not as rich as he’s hoping it is.

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