Bucs at Lions: Pewter Predictions For 2024 NFC Divisional Round

BUCS at LIONS

WHEN: Sunday, January 21, 2024 | WHERE: Ford Field (Detroit, MI) | KICKOFF: 3:00 p.m. ET | TV: NBC

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Mike Tirico | ANALYST: Cris Collinsworth | SIDELINE: Kaylee Hartung & Melissa Stark | RULES: Terry McAulay

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds:

Thanks to a 12-5 record and a previous win over the Bucs back in Week 6, the Lions are the better team. But in the playoffs, the better team doesn’t always win.

Sometimes things like momentum and team health make a difference. And right now after winning six of its last seven games and being as healthy as the team has been all year, Tampa Bay has momentum and health on its side. This game could go either way, but I expect it to be much closer than Detroit’s 20-6 win in Tampa earlier this season, and closer than Tampa Bay’s 32-9 rout of Philadelphia in Monday’s Wild Card game.

The Bucs are a different and better team than the one the Lions beat back on October 15. Tampa Bay has proven it can run the ball down the stretch, which is something it struggled to do against Detroit in the first game, rushing for just 46 yards. Both the Bucs and the Lions have Top 5 rushing defenses, and the team that runs the ball better and commits the fewest turnovers likely wins the game.

The Lions finally got the proverbial monkey off their back with a long-awaited playoff victory on Sunday against the Rams in a 24-23 victory – the team’s first postseason win since 1991. But after racing out to a 14-3 lead in the first quarter, the Lions started to tighten up and allowed the Rams to come back. Will Detroit feel the added pressure of winning a home playoff game against a 6.5-point underdog and play tight?

More importantly, will the Bucs come in playing loose with nothing to lose, as few expected them to be in this position? Can Tampa Bay keep this game close enough for Chase McLaughlin to win it in the end? Yeah, why not? If the Bucs can jump out to a lead in the first quarter to put the Lions on their heels and quiet the crowd I don’t see why their revenge tour can’t continue for at least another Sunday.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 26, Lions 23
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 11-7

Matt Matera: “Revenge Tour” Continues With A Bucs Win

The Bucs are playing fast and free heading into this divisional round playoff matchup against the Lions. Should Tampa Bay’s offense be able to continue what it did on Monday night, particularly with what the team got from Baker Mayfield, it can take them as far as the Bucs want to go.

This isn’t to say that the Bucs should try to go score for score with the Lions, but they’re going to have their shots against the Lions defense, and if they hit those shots, it may just give the win to Tampa Bay.

Yards after the catch are going to be a big factor in this game. The Bucs were fantastic with it on Monday night, while Detroit allowed some big plays in their own building. The Lions also have tons of speed on offense, particularly with Amon-Ra St. Brown. It would help out the Bucs if they either double-teamed St. Brown or put a safety over the top now that Zyon McCollum is in that role.

Quarterback Jared Goff is great against the blitz, so even though the Bucs blitz as much as anyone in the league, I think they’ll have to pick and choose their spots. Sending extra rushers has gotten the Bucs to this point, but they can’t let it hurt them too much. Taking away the middle of the field will be important.

Mayfield and Mike Evans have come close to hitting the big play over the last two weeks. This is the time where they get it together. The Bucs came close in their first matchup and it’s going to be available against Detroit. Mayfield is already a motivated player. Now that C.J. Gardner-Johnson threw some insults his way, Mayfield may bring even more energy.

This is a great chance for the Bucs to jump out to a lead and take the crowd out of it. Tampa Bay plays better with a lead and can keep the clock going late with Rachaad White running the ball to salt away a win. The Bucs have embraced the underdog role and being counted out, so playing for each other gets them to the next postseason round.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 31, Lions 25
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 10-8

Bailey Adams: Bucs’ Impressive Run Of Momentum Ends In Motown

I was on the fence last week and ultimately chose to roll with the Bucs over the Eagles, and I was proven right in the form of a resounding 32-9 win for Tampa Bay that booked this trip to face Detroit in the NFC Divisional Round.

I think last week, in part, was a combination of everything clicking — a masterful game plan from Todd Bowles, an in-his-bag type of play-calling night from Dave Canales and the players making key plays at the right time after getting an early lead. I think another part of last week’s game was the Eagles being in complete disarray and having no answers to their collapse that began after they started 10-1.

It all worked out beautifully for the Bucs last week, and while I think they have more than a puncher’s chance this week, I think their momentum might run out in Motown.

Riding high from their emotional win last week — their first playoff win since the 1991 playoffs — I think the Lions thrill the home crowd at Ford Field again with a victory that sends them into the NFC Championship Game for the first time since those 1991 playoffs.

I actually don’t hate this matchup from a Bucs standpoint. They were in the game when the two teams met in Week 6 and only fell out of it because of some poor execution on offense and an inability to survive third downs on defense. I think Tampa Bay plays a better game this time around, but I think Detroit does, too.

The duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs didn’t get to make its presence felt in Week 6 and I think it will on Sunday. Not only that, but I’m not sure the Buccaneers secondary will be able to do enough to slow down the likes of Amon’Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Josh Reynolds and Sam LaPorta.

For the Bucs to win this one, the offense may need another 30-point performance, and I’m just not confident enough in this group to go on the road and do that. It could definitely happen and I wouldn’t be surprised if Tampa Bay found a way to win in the Motor City and advanced to the NFC title game. My heart is telling me to go in that direction, really. But my head is saying to make the safe pick, and that’s the home team that has been looking like a top contender in the NFC all year long.

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Lions 27, Bucs 20
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 10-8

Josh Queipo: Good Vibes Defeats Great Vibes In Bucs’ Road Win

I’m past the X’s and the O’s and the analytics. In a bonkers season filled with just about every quarterback in the league and their mother going down with injuries, the Eagles falling off a cliff, and the Texans going from worst to first, the only thing left to analyze is vibes. And the vibes are great with both of these teams. Detroit has run a throwback to the days of Ace of Base and Jurassic Park (the original) – back to the 1990s when the Lions were a good team with Barry Sanders and then Calvin Johnson. The Lions are coming off a win at home for the first time in 30 years against their beloved former quarterback, Matthew Stafford.

I question whether the team can keep the emotional dial set at 10 for another week. And the Bucs combine similar vibes with a roster full of leaders who have a Super Bowl ring in their trophy cases. That leadership combined with the steady hand that head coach Todd Bowles has proven to have can guide the Bucs to victory on the road.

Defensively, the Bucs were able to hold the Lions to 20 points in their last matchup. Coming off of a defensive masterclass against the Eagles, the Bucs have the pieces (and a defensive schemer who is dialed in) to limit the Detroit offense. I don’t foresee Tampa Bay limiting Detroit to 20 points again. But holding the Lions to 21-24 points is certainly feasible.

On offense, Dave Canales showed a similar hyper-specific game-planning aptitude for a high-profile matchup last week. No doubt he should see the weakness in the Lions secondary and fully attempt to exploit it. Combine that with an improved deep ball from quarterback Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense should be able to light up the Lions secondary to generate enough points to keep the vibes going for yet another week.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 31, Lions 24
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 11-7

Adam Slivon: Bucs Lose Close One In Motor City

To just about everyone’s surprise, the Bucs have made it to the NFC Divisional round against the Lions. To get here, Tampa Bay has had to win six of its last seven games, the latest being a dominant, 32-9 win over the Eagles. Now it’s time to face a Lions team hungry to continue having the postseason success that has eluded them in the 21st century.

When looking at this game, it goes without saying that the offense needs an improved performance from when it last played Detroit in Week 6. Back then, the offense was still adjusting to the new scheme and much of the struggles were visible. Since then, Baker Mayfield and Co. have had some big games, and had one last week thanks to a balanced offensive attack.

That will be needed this week as the Lions have a stout run defense and physical back end led by Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. It won’t be easy to get on the board, but the offense has looked better outside of the NFC South in recent weeks and should find some success. In particular, my eyes will be on Rachaad White and if he is able to have success early. That will be critical in jumping out to a fast start and perhaps quieting down the Ford Field crowd just a little bit.

Defensively, it won’t be as easy this week as it was against an Eagles team missing A.J. Brown. Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the aerial attack and is a 1,500-yard receiver. But beyond him, there are still plenty of weapons Todd Bowles’ defense will need to strategize for. Josh Reynolds is a sneaky good receiver who is effective up the middle, while Jameson Williams is a young speedster who caught a long touchdown over Ryan Neal in the first game. Oh, and rookie phenom Sam LaPorta is already one of the best tight ends in the league.

That’s not to mention they have two near 1,000-yard backs with double-digit rushing touchdowns in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. That’s a lot of talent, and Jared Goff will not be affected by the blitz as much as Jalen Hurts was. With Ben Johnson calling the plays, Detroit’s offense has shown little problem putting up points against formidable defenses.

This game will be close – perhaps closer than most see it – but ultimately I see the Lions marching on in their Cinderella season while the Bucs fall just short in continuing their own.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Lions 27, Bucs 24
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 13-5