Bucs at Chargers: Pewter Predictions For Week 15

BUCS at CHARGERS

WHEN: Sunday, December 15, 2024 | WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA) | KICKOFF: 4:25 p.m. ET | TV: FOX

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Adam Amin | ANALYST: Mark Sanchez | SIDELINE: Kristina Pink

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds:

I’m concerned that the Bucs defense hasn’t been fixed over the last three games when the unit has surrendered a league-low 14.3 points per game, but rather the issues on Todd Bowles’ unit have been merely masked by playing against lesser offenses. Holding the Giants, Panthers and Raiders – three of the worst teams in the league – to just 43 total points is impressive, yet expected, right? I just don’t trust the defense, especially with Tampa Bay facing an elite quarterback like Justin Herbert, who has a big arm and has only thrown one interception against 14 touchdowns this year.

Yet I do have confidence in Liam Coen’s offense putting up more 20 points or more in Los Angeles against the league’s top scoring defense, which allows an average of 15.9 points per game. The Bucs have only scored less than 20 points just once this season – in a 26-7 Week 3 loss to Denver. Baker Mayfield needs to stop turning the ball over after throwing two picks in each of the last two games in order for the team to have a chance to pull off a West Coast upset.

The Chargers have a great red zone defense and force opponents to kick field goals rather than score touchdowns. That, combined with a plus-11 turnover margin, which is third-best in the league, gives Los Angeles a decided advantage over Tampa Bay, which is minus-2 in the turnover margin. And should this game come down to field goals like I think it will, Cameron Dicker is connecting at a 93% rate, which rivals what Chase McLaughlin has done kicking for the Bucs this year. Unfortunately the Bucs’ winning streak stops at three games with a close Week 15 loss to the Chargers.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Chargers 26, Bucs 23
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 9-4

Matt Matera: Bucs Win In Unordinary Way

This matchup between the Bucs and Chargers comes down to which team gets to control the pace of play and input their style of offense and defense. The Bucs want to win with their offense getting out to a big lead, relying on their offense as they average 28 points per game. The Chargers, on the other hand, have only allowed more than 20 points twice this season. They want to protect the football and get into a rock fight with the opponent, looking to win with running the ball and physicality.

What’s great about this iteration of the Bucs is that they can win in different ways. With a future Hall of Famer in Mike Evans, it’s easy to lean on him with the passing game as the Bucs have done before. But the staple of Tampa Bay’s offense this year has been the running game. It’ll be harder if Bucky Irving doesn’t play, but they’re still capable with Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. I think the Chargers will orchestrate their style of game with ground and pound, but Tampa Bay not only matches that but does it better. The most important factor of it all is no turnovers by Baker Mayfield. Be aggressive, but not too over the top.

Another thing that’ll help the Bucs is that their biggest weakness is pass coverage and stopping the tight ends. They should welcome anytime the Chargers want to run it so as to not exploit what they do the worst. Los Angeles is banged up with their skill position players. We’ll see if tight end Will Dissly or wide receiver Ladd McConkey can go, but this might just be the week where pass coverage isn’t the biggest issue. Something flukey may happen in this game. Maybe a rare turnover by Justin Herbert or a blocked punt. It won’t be the prettiest of games, but one where the Bucs continue their winning streak.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 22, Chargers 19
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 8-5

Bailey Adams: Bucs Pass Their Biggest Remaining Regular Season Test

There’s no doubt that this is the Bucs’ biggest test left in the 2024 regular season. They come in at 7-6 and with their remaining games coming against two five-win teams (the Cowboys and Saints) and a three-win team (the Panthers), a victory over the 8-5 Chargers would go a long way in their quest for an NFC South title four-peat. It would also serve as something of a statement win, as it would prove that Tampa Bay isn’t only feasting on a weaker schedule down the stretch. But can they pass this test and make that statement?

I think so. I’m trusting the Bucs’ fifth-ranked scoring offense (27.9 PPG) to find a way against the Chargers’ top-ranked scoring defense (15.9 PPG allowed). Baker Mayfield has to play a clean game, and Mike Evans has to show up in a big way and hopefully find the end zone. But perhaps what’s even more pressing is the need for the Tampa Bay offensive line to assert itself and out-physical a very tough and gritty Chargers defense. Doing so would help the Buccaneers run game stay hot and control the flow of this game.

The Los Angeles defense has only allowed more than 21 points twice this season, giving up 27 to Joe Burrow and the Bengals and 30 to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. So, I am putting a lot of faith in Mayfield and the Bucs by predicting them to score 24. At the same time, I think I’m putting a lot of faith (too much?) in Todd Bowles’ defense to hold Justin Herbert and the Chargers under 24. Not that L.A. is scoring at a high clip, of course. It’s just that this is a banged-up defense that has been suspect even in the rare times when it has been healthy this season. And I don’t really trust this group anymore. Ah, nevertheless. The Bucs win a fourth straight by toughing one out on the West Coast. Why not?

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Chargers 20
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 9-4

Josh Queipo: Bucs Win Dog Fight In Last-Minute Fashion Yet Again

The Bucs have been successful in recent weeks on the backs of a defense taking advantage of struggling offenses. Well, I have some news for you. Since Week 12 the Chargers offense is 21st in EPA/play and 28th in success rate. This is a group that tries to establish the run and hit shot plays behind it. And while it has worked enough, in tandem with a stout defense, I don’t see them rattling off 24 or more points against a Bucs defense that can still stop the run well.

Tampa Bay’s defense has a plethora of injuries but should still have the three most important pieces to stopping a Chargers receiving corps that isn’t very good behind a dinged-up Ladd McConkey. Jamel Dean, Zyon McCollum and Tykee Smith all look to be healthy to help negate Los Angeles’ passing attack. And after some positive man-to-man reps in Week 14 I wouldn’t be surprised if Todd Bowles dialed up more Cover 1 to challenge Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston to win against big physical corners.

Now about that stout Chargers defense. They are a Top 10 unit that will likely give the Bucs issues. But don’t count out Tampa Bay’s ability to score. The Bucs have faced four of the top 11 defenses, as measured by EPA/play, in the NFL. In those games they have averaged 20 points per game. Take out the Broncos, who play a completely different style of defense than the Chargers and that average jumps to 24.33. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen has been cooking all season, and the run game is at its peak. I expect a bounce-back game from quarterback Baker Mayfield and the Bucs to secure a quality win late in the season.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Chargers 19
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 8-5

Adam Slivon: Bucs Lack The Jolt To Win In Los Angeles

Sunday’s game marks the biggest remaining test for the Bucs this season. Coming off the bye week, Tampa Bay defeated the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders. As it stands, those three team’s combined records are just 7-32. Even coming off a close, 19-17 loss to the Chiefs, the Chargers stand at 8-5 and will be looking to play their style of football back home. It’s a style of football that has formed under Jim Harbaugh during his first season at the helm. The Chargers’ identity has evolved to being a team that does not put points up a lot of points to defeat opponents; rather, they win games by outmatching teams physically on offense and defense. 

Co-defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers said it best this week when discussing how the Chargers’ offense operates, saying that it poses “a multitude of challenges” for the Bucs’ defense. The unit has played better in recent weeks against teams that have struggled offensively, but that will change when facing Justin Herbert. Although Herbert does not need to be the gunslinger, he has become a highly efficient quarterback running the show while still possessing the physical traits that keep defenses honest. What works in Tampa Bay’s favor is that Herbert, Gus Edwards, Ladd McConkey, and Will Dissly are all battling injuries. Already missing J.K. Dobbins and lacking wide receivers, Todd Bowles could have a plan to stop Los Angeles’ remaining weapons.

The Bucs’ own offense has been high-flying, but they face the league’s stingiest scoring defense with talent on all three levels. With Bucky Irving yet to practice this week and likely out of action, that puts more on Rachaad White’s shoulders. Baker Mayfield will have his hands full buying time and finding holes in a defense with 39 sacks and 17 takeaways, and his ability to not turn the ball over will be the deciding factor. All season, I predicted the team would fall short and lose this game down the stretch. I see this matchup being more even as of late, but the Chargers have the defense to keep this low-scoring while the Bucs’ defense is too under-manned to expect the same.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Chargers 20, Bucs 17
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 9-4