The first week of April includes multiple fight cards with tantalizing MMA odds on the board at the best MMA betting sites. After evaluating the odds for every promotion, I have identified the best MMA bets for the week of April 1!
I had the luxury to choose from KSW, BFKC, LFA, UFC, and even Fury Pro Grappling. For my MMA betting picks this week, I have circled a handful of selections from UFC Vegas 90, PFL Week 1, and ONE Fight Night 21.
Below, check out the odds, courtesy of BetOnline, and my MMA best bets!
Denis Goltsov to Beat Linton Vassell (PFL 1)
- Denis Goltsov (-145)
- Linton Vassell (+110)
My first MMA pick of the week features a heavyweight showdown at the Boeing Center in San Antonio, TX. Scheduled for Thursday evening, PFL 1 has an exciting card with many heavyweight bouts.
One of the most thrilling fights on the card will likely be the Danis Goltsov (32-8-0) vs. Linton Vassell (24-8-0) clash. These are two heavy hitters, with more than enough KO power.
Goltsov enters PFL 1 coming off a loss in a title bout versus Renan Ferreira at the 2023 PFL World Championship in November. The KO loss snapped a five-fight win streak for the fighter.
It was a rare KO loss for the 33-year-old Russian, who is typically the one sending people to the canvas. Goltsov hadn’t lost via a TKO/KO since August 2017, which was another title bout, this time in ACB. Despite the defeat, he had won eight of his previous nine assignments before this clash1.
Vassell carries some momentum into this fight with five straight wins. However, he hasn’t fought since March 2023 in Bellator. Goltsov has KO power, but he’s also fantastic on the ground.
If “The Russian Bogatyr” can get this fight to the mat, he will have the edge versus Vassell. Goltsov was beating Ferreira and a huge favorite in the live betting markets before he caught a strong fist to end the fight, which is always a possibility in heavyweight bouts.
Look for Goltsov to rectify his mistakes from that fight and wear down Vassell to get the PFL season started off well. The implied probability stands at 59.2% at -145 odds, but I see Goltsov closer to a 65% favorite at PFL 1.
Jeremy Pacatiw to Beat Shuo Wang (ONE Fight Night 21)
- Jeremy Pacatiw (-245)
- Shuo Wang (+195)
The nine-fight ONE Championship card is shaping up to be a solid lineup for ONE Fight Night 21. With the first fight scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET, start the day off by locking in your MMA best bets for ONE.
Alexis Nicolas and Regian Eersel headline One Fight Nine 21, but the best betting value appears to be on a bantamweight contest, Jeremy Pacatiw (11-5-0) vs. Shuo Wang (15-6-0). This should be a classic stand-up battle between two expert strikers.
Shuo is moving up in class from featherweight to bantamweight to challenge the Filipino. He’s also coming off a lengthy layoff, with his last fight in Jan. 2022. It was only the third fight and second consecutive assignment for Shou in ONE.
He was on a five-fight roll before losing by unanimous decision to Tatsumitsu Wada. The concern going into that fight was jumping up to face a tougher fighter after picking on inferior opponents.
The 27-year-old Filipino should be more on his competitive level, but he’s a diverse fighter who can win in a lot of different ways. Pacatiw is 3-1-0 in his previous four bouts, with wins via TKO, decision, and a triangle choke2.
In his most recent ONE Championship fight, Pacatiw defeated Tial Thang by submission at ONE 164. Since then, he has been keeping busy in kickboxing and grappling fights. This is a tough fight for Shuo to prepare for at ONE Fight Night 21.
Pacatiw is a multi-dimensional fighter that should provide multiple challenges for Shuo. In what should be a competitive fight in the early stages, I expect Pacatiw to eventually take control of the fight for a relatively easy victory.
Morgan Charriere to Beat Chepe Mariscal (UFC Vegas 90)
- Morgan Charriere (-122)
- Chepe Mariscal (+102)
UFC Vegas 90 is set to take place on Saturday, April 6, at the APEX in Las Vegas. The card can be streamed for free on ESPN+, with the prelims beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET. Brendan Allen and Chris Curtis are scheduled for the UFC Vegas 90 main event.
There are two featherweight bouts on the main card, with Morgan Charriere (19-9-1) and Chepe Mariscal (15-6-0) a compelling matchup at the APEX. Charriere is on the heels of four consecutive wins, with a victory in his UFC Fight Night debut in September 2023.
Charriere received the call from UFC after two very impressive wins in Cage Warriors last year. With three easy wins in Cage Warriors, his next stop had to be in the UFC.
It was the same story for the European in his UFC debut, with a win from body kicks at 3:51 of Round 13. The victory didn’t grant Charriere a ticket to a UFC PPV, but an impressive performance against Mariscal could get him there.
Mariscal enters UFC Vegas 90 with plenty of confidence following an upset via submission over Jack Jenkins at UFC 293. His opponent dislocated his elbow, which undoubtedly impacted the result.
If Mariscal is going to stand up with Charriere, this is likely not going his way. The guy has underrated power that should catch “Machine Gun” off guard at the APEX. He is the stronger striker and grappler with slightly better speed.
I have Charriere marked down as a -175 favorite with an implied probability of 63.6%. Therefore, at -122, we are getting fantastic value on a Charriere win for my MMA best bets this week.
Cynthia Calvillo to Beat Piera Rodriguez (UFC Vegas 90)
- Piera Rodriguez (-144)
- Cynthia Calvillo (+124)
Piera Rodriguez (9-1-0) will be eager to bounce back after suffering the first loss of her UFC career to Gillian Robertson in April 2023. “La Fiera” was rolling through the competition, with nine consecutive wins before getting stopped by an armbar.
All three of her previous victories were by unanimous decision4. She has a predictable game plan, with getting opponents to the ground and maintaining control. Either it leads to a decision win, submission, or ground and pound.
However, Rodriguez does not have much of a stand-up presence. When she needed it against Robertson, the fun and winning streak ended abruptly. This was the toughest fighter that she has faced in her career, and it showed.
She was outclassed after building up a considerable amount of confidence in her career. I don’t think the next bout will be much easier for Rodriguez.
Cynthia Calvillo (9-6-0) is reeling after suffering five straight losses5. The 36-year-old native of San Jose, CA, needs a win or could be seeking a job with a new promotion soon.
If there’s any positive to take away from the losses, Calvillo battled hard against fighters with more skill than Rodriguez. Despite going into this match with a poorer record than Rodriguez, she is better than the numbers suggest and can get back on track at UFC Vegas 90.
Most sports betting sites are laying down a fairly convincing trap line on Rodriguez here. Despite being 9-1-0 and facing a fighter on a five-fight skid, she is only a -144 favorite against Calvillo. I like Calvillo to end the drought and finally celebrate her first since June 2020 on Saturday night.
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1
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Sources
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Denis Goltsov MMA Fight History | ESPN.com. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/mma/fighter/history/_/id/3024604/denis-goltsov”
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Jeremy “The Juggernaut” Pacitaw Stats | Sherdog.com. Retrieved From “https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jeremy-Pacatiw-191623’
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Morgan Charriere “The Last Pirate” MMA Fighter Page | Tapology.com. Retrieved From “https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/fighters/93065-morgan-charriere”
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Piera Rodriguez “La Fiera” MMA Fighter Page | Tapology.com. Retrieved From “https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/fighters/140642-pierangela-rodriguez”
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Cynthia Calvillo MMA Stats | Sherdog.com. Retrieved From “https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cynthia-Calvillo-93095”
https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/best-mma-bets-of-the-week/
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