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Best Ball: Rookie WRs & Riding the Summer Wave of ADP (Fantasy Football)

May 4, 2024
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On the most recent Fantasy Footballers DFS & Betting Podcast, Betz and I kicked off the Summer of Best Ball by discussing the current state of rookie WRs.

A couple of years ago, I wrote a piece entitled Rookie WRs are Going Higher Than Ever highlighting the surge in rookie WR ADP and comparing to this past. At the time, I thought I knew the road we were treading upon. But apparently (to quote Doc Brown), “where we’re going… we don’t need roads!”

Buckle up because 2024 Best Ball collided with the 2024 NFL Draft and had a baby like we’ve ever seen… in the Best Ball streets.

Why Rookie WRs Are a Good Bet

Dating back to the famed 2014 class, we’ve averaged 3.7 “impact” rookie WRs per season to finish as top-36 fantasy WRs. Top-36 might not sound so enticing to you except when you consider the best ball format and its present content.

Last year we had five rookie WRs finish inside the top 36:

Perhaps the more egregious error in 2023 was the fact the highest-drafted rookie WR on Underdog was Jaxon Smith-Njigba… at WR36. Yes, the historical hit rate of these rookies was not taken into account likely due to the fact last year’s class was pushed down the actual NFL draftboard.

On average, 4.6 total rookie WRs meet or exceed their win rate expectation. Some of that data is skewed when you consider where rookies were being drafted in the pre-Underdog era of Best Ball. For real, D.J. Moore and Calvin Ridley were the only WRs drafted in the 2018 NFL Draft, and yet their ADPs (Moore- 145.7, Ridley-145.9) seem somewhat laughable when you compare them to 2024. Heck, Justin Jefferson went at 147.4 on average in BestBall10s in 2020. The upside wasn’t baked in while we also recognize that Best Ball was not as widespread in terms of popularity and the consciousness of fantasy football fans.

The BestBall10 data and Underdog ADPs of today is an apples-to-oranges comparison. Not only is it formatted differently but the Best Ball zeitgeist thanks to the post-2020/COVID world + Underdog Fantasy’s emergence is utterly a new way of drafting, in my opinion. However, just for kicks, here is where rookies used to go (pause for laughter) based on BestBall10 data from 2015 to 2020.

Yep, that Justin Jefferson one got me good. In case you think this isn’t an Underdog thing, here are some rookie WRs you might’ve heard of in the last three years with ADPs that weren’t drafted in the top 90(!) picks.

Main Takeaways

  • We’re never getting back to the glory days of finding rookie WRs super late.
  • Drafting earlier in Best Ball (May, June) gets you values on rookie WRs.
  • We are likely too overconfident in some of these rookies contributing… BUT when they hit, they are massive difference-makers.

The Big 3 Rookie WRs & History To Consider

Let’s compare the big 3 rookie WRs with where rookies have been drafted over the last decade.

There are a couple of different ways to look at this data.

1. This draft class is elite.

Yep, we get it. Over the last three months, we talked extensively about each of these prospects on the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty podcast and the NFL backed up the hype with Round 1 draft capital. Could they crush? For sure. Trust me, my pants are incinerated as well with the thought of having Marvin Harrison Jr. on a few dynasty rosters.

2. These WRs might not pay off in Best Ball.

A player’s talent might be undeniable. Yet, it does not necessarily mean that these WRs will pay off. The Best Ball format is a game… within a game. Sorry to go all inception but we are playing fantasy football with different parameters than a redraft or dynasty league.

In Best Ball, there are a couple of different metrics we care about for these players and a player’s win rate (or advance rate) is one of the top metrics. In other words, at the end of the year, will these rookie WRs exceed their ADP expectation? Using the last three years worth of Underdog ADP data (and RotoViz’s Advance Rate Explorer tool), we can see that any WR drafted as a top 50 pick should exceed a 17.5% advance rate or 130 points added to a roster. Sounds easy enough right?

What if I told you (sorry the 30-for-30 voice creeps in sometimes) that of the 86 WRs drafted as a top 50 pick the last three years, only 40% hit that 17.5% advance rate mark. That statistic is a bit deceiving because players drafted later (100+ ADP) have an easier time exceeding because of low expectations… Duh! The main point: these WRs are big bets at these ADPs compared to players we’ve seen do it in the NFL. In the past, rookie WRs were depressed in ADP because of their unknowns. 2024 is screaming at us in the face saying, “These guys will be great, and let me back that up by drafting them in the first couple of rounds!”

3. The Best Ball format demands it.

Honestly, it forces these ADPs to skew here. The payoff is immense but based on history, 4-5 will exceed expectation of where they are drafted… which is dreadfully low based on current hype. To compare, let’s compare the bombardment of WRs in the first three rounds since Underdog’s conception in 2021.

Year WRs in Top-36 Picks
% of top3 Rounds
2021 14 39%
2022 16 44%
2023 17 47%
2024 24 67%

Yep. You’re drafting WRs! Your buddy is drafting WRs! Heck, if your mama is playing BestBall on Underdog, she’s drafting WRs! The ZeroRB approach is in vogue and zig-zagging from the rest of the crowd can be frightening. When you look up in Round 7 and you’re asking guys like DeAndre Hopkins (WR45) and Christian Watson (WR46) to hold down the WR fort, you realize mistakes were made.

4. Chill out… summer is coming & ADP changes.

I love it. Summer gives us a timeframe to work with and as Pete Overzet shares in his must-watch Ultimate Best Ball Mania V guide, the time to stack up rookie WRs is now. We know their ADPs will change and likely only go up when you hear more camp report hype. Once the NFL Schedule gets released next week, we will have a rush of game stacking that also influences the field. The Summer of Best Ball is here and we are with the entire way with our early Best Ball rankings live on the website.

The Best Ball Primer will be available as always on June 1st. It is THE in-depth strategy guide for attackingBest Ball looking through all 32 NFL teams based on ADP, team metrics, players were targeting, and how to properly stack each team. It will also be updated throughout the summer with our favorite late-round targets and Week 15-17 stacking options.

Rookie WRs: Current ADP Values

As we shared on the DFS & Betting Podcast, there are a couple of rookie WRs who could rise in ADP over the summer that we are bullish on right now:

Xavier Worthy– WR37/66.4

He’s only going up from here folks. The Rashee Rice suspension is coming. The training camp videos of him out-running everyone and beat reporters saying “I’ve never seen anyone run like this before.” It’s coming. While you might be a bit skeptical of his weight, Worthy should’ve been a player worth betting on before the NFL combine. He broke out as a true freshman with the youngest breakout age in this class and his utilization at all four levels of the field at Texas is not normal for someone with this speed. Trust the Chiefs in being creative and trust the fact the field is going to rise on him as Marquise Brown‘s ADP sinks.

Keon Coleman– WR47/94.1

The quotable Coleman has the potential to be Josh Allen’s WR1. We know what Curtis Samuel is at this point in his career (hint: he’s just a dude) and at this ADP, Coleman is cheaper than what we were paying for Gabe Davis the last two years. Historically, the Bills are an organization that cares more about “in-game” data than raw speed as ETR’s Evan Silva shared recently. While you might still be concerned about his overall profile, this is a guy I’m willing to draft now then maybe fade when he’s a Round 7 pick in two months.

Ja’Lynn Polk– WR70/155.6

The Patriots offense seems like Polk was the wingman for Rome Odunze at Washington over the last couple of years and was productive in school. He has some fun tape, especially with acrobatic catches and while I don’t see a super high ceiling, he has the traits to be an NFL starter and the Patriots certainly thought so by selecting him 37th overall. WR70 feels a bit too low for someone who could ascend to No. 1 in terms of targets for an NFL team.

Roman Wilson– WR72/158.1

While Wilson fell behind other names as the WR14 in the NFL Draft, he might be one of the easiest win-rate players to forecast. While the landing spot in Pittsburgh does have some issues, the opportunity to step right into an every-down role is very apparent. Diontae Johnson‘s exodus vacates 18% of the targets and apart from George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, the competition is minimal with no other WR on the roster able to match Wilson’s with his type of separation ability. He ranked 2nd in this class in EPA per target while his floor feels high as a pro-ready, possession receiver. Have you seen the rest of this WR room?

Javon Baker -WR81/188.2

Surprised to see another Patriots rookie WR on this list? Baker was one of four WRs in this class to post 3+ YPRR versus both man and zone coverage in his final season. His YAC profile intrigues me and while I don’t love the Day 3 draft capital, the landing spot suggests he can wrestle away playing time ahead of the corpses of JuJu Smith-Schuster, KJ Osborn, Tyquan Thornton and Kayshon Boutte. I’m shooting for upside and Baker’s profile fits the mold of what we should be looking for late in drafts. Yes, this offense could be booty with Drake Maye… but his ADP bakes that in already.

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/best-ball/best-ball-rookie-wrs-riding-the-summer-wave-of-adp-fantasy-football/

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