Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 3 (Fantasy Football)

Week 2 is officially in the books, giving us plenty to discuss. As always, it’s time to dig into the numbers and see which wide receivers overperformed or underperformed based on their usage and efficiency. By looking at key metrics like TPRR, YPRR, and 1D/RR, we can pinpoint which players might be due for positive or negative regression moving forward. Let’s dive in and figure out who’s primed to shine and who might be a risk heading into Week 3. Plus, I’ll update my Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) at the end of the article to highlight the biggest risers and fallers!

First Downs per Route Run (1D/RR)

Check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!

Overperformer: Andrei Iosivas (Cincinnati Bengals)

1D/RR: 0.06
Result: 2 receptions, 7 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 13.7 (half-PPR)

Andrei Iosivas seriously overperformed in fantasy despite a low 0.06 1D/RR. He only saw four targets but made the most of them, scoring two touchdowns to salvage his day. With Tee Higgins expected back soon, Iosivas’ targets and routes are likely to take a hit, making it hard to trust him moving forward. His efficiency won’t be sustainable with such limited opportunities.

Underperformer: Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints)

1D/RR: 0.25
Result: 4 receptions, 81 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10.1 (half-PPR)

Chris Olave had a solid 0.25 1D/RR in Week 2, but his opportunities were limited as the Saints destroyed the Cowboys, making it unnecessary for them to air it out. He only saw a handful of targets, but he made the most of his chances, converting key plays when needed. His role has expanded in this Klint Kubiak offense, giving him even more opportunities to thrive moving forward. With that in mind, Olave is a buy before the Saints find themselves in more competitive matchups that will showcase his full potential.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

For a deeper dive on TPRR, check out AJ Passman’s Targets per Route Run Report for Week 3.

Overperformer: Brian Thomas Jr. (Jacksonville Jaguars)

TPRR: 0.133
Result: 2 receptions, 94 receiving yards, 0 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10.4 (half-PPR)

Brian Thomas Jr. managed to salvage his fantasy day despite a low 0.133 TPRR, thanks to two deep plays that kept him relevant. His lack of targets is concerning, especially with how inconsistent Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have looked. This team just hasn’t clicked, and it’s been hard to trust their offense week to week. Given Thomas’ low target volume and the unpredictability of Jacksonville’s game plan, I’m not confident in his future performance — and frankly, I don’t trust Doug Pederson to turn things around at this moment.

Underperformer: Ladd McConkey (Los Angeles Chargers)

TPRR: 0.267
Result: 2 receptions, 26 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 3.6 (half-PPR)

Ladd McConkey posted a solid 0.267 TPRR, but in this Jim Harbaugh-led era, the focus has been on pounding the rock. With the offense running the ball all over, McConkey might not see enough volume to be a reliable weekly fantasy starter. To make matters tougher, Quentin Johnston scored two touchdowns, cutting into McConkey’s chances to shine. While McConkey has potential, the run-heavy scheme could limit his ceiling moving forward.

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: Alec Pierce (Indianapolis Colts)

YPRR: 1.647
Result: 5 receptions, 56 receiving yards, 1 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 14.1 (half-PPR)

Alec Pierce’s 1.647 YPRR is far from horrible but it is not a number to be impressed by, even though he’s been the only receiver able to consistently connect with Anthony Richardson. Most of his fantasy production this past week came during the two-minute drill, which isn’t a reliable path to weekly success. With Josh Downs set to return and potentially eat into his targets, Pierce’s already limited volume could take a hit. His connection with Richardson is promising, but the competition for targets and chances of him hitting big plays with Richardson consistently make me worried about his long-term value.

Underperformer: Khalil Shakir (Buffalo Bills)

YPRR: 3.177
Result: 5 receptions, 54 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 7.9 (half-PPR)

Khalil Shakir posted an impressive 3.177 YPRR in a game where the Bills cruised to a blowout victory over the Dolphins, resulting in a lower volume of passes needed. Despite not being required for extensive usage, Shakir demonstrated that he could be emerging as Josh Allen’s new favorite target. Given his efficiency and the potential for increased involvement, Shakir is a strong buy candidate moving forward.

Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points

I think it would be best to lead this section off with the final PRS rankings of 2023 to show how we ended last year and then finish with 24 wide receivers who could be good buy-lows over the next two weeks as we get more data from this year.

2023 PRS Rankings

Now, I’ll leave you with the PRS ratings for 2024 thus far, which will give you a clearer picture of how each player is stacking up in terms of their future potential.

2024 PRS Rankings

That wraps up our look at Week 2 and the wide receivers who could be heading for positive or negative regression in Week 3. As always, keeping an eye on these key metrics will help you stay ahead of the curve as the season unfolds. Stay tuned — we’ve only just begun!