Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 2 (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to my deep dive look into wide receiver performances for the 2024 season! As we kick off the NFL season, I’ll look closer at wide receivers who either overperformed or underperformed in Week 1, and update you on how I have adjusted my wide receiver calculation and how we can use it to our advantage as the season progresses.

The first order of business is to talk about the metrics we will use to evaluate the league’s wide receiver performances. I’ll dive into three key metrics: First Downs per Route Run (1D/RR), Targets per Route Run (TPRR), and Yards per Route Run (YPRR). Additionally, I’ll re-introduce a unique Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) metric to help predict fantasy success and demonstrate how it can be applied using a linear regression equation to gauge a receiver’s expected fantasy points from receiving work. So without further ado, let’s dive into our advanced metrics to find over and underachievers.

First Downs per Route Run (1D/RR)

1D/RR is an essential metric when evaluating wide receiver performance. It calculates the number of first downs a WR generates per route run, offering insight into their reliability and usage in critical situations. In Week 1, several receivers showed strong 1D/RR rates, indicating their role in moving the chains and sustaining drives. Conversely, receivers with low 1D/RR may not be as valuable in critical moments, limiting their overall fantasy impact. Over the last two seasons, using WRs with at least 35 targets in a season, the correlation between 1D/RR and Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) is 0.763! Anything over 0.5 means there is a correlation of some sort so getting up over the 0.7 mark just shows how correlated this stat is to fantasy points.

Check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!

Overperformer: Malik Nabers (New York Giants)

1D/RR: 0.04
Result: 5 receptions, 66 receiving yards, 0 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.1 (half-PPR)

Malik Nabers put up decent fantasy numbers, but his 1D/RR was a rough 0.04. That’s not exactly what you want to see — basically, he wasn’t moving the chains much. Daniel Jones couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat last week, and his receivers were paying the price. Nabers overperformed despite that low 1D/RR, which makes him a bit of an outlier and I don’t think there is much to worry about at this time. Hopefully, DJ can look better in the weeks to come, but if he does not then I assume the Giants will move to Drew Lock which could propel Malik to special fantasy output.

Underperformer: Tyler Lockett (Seattle Seahawks)

1D/RR: 0.25
Result: 7 receptions, 77 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10.7 (half-PPR)

Tyler Lockett posted a solid 0.25 1D/RR, meaning he was converting first downs on a good chunk of his routes, which is exactly what you want from a reliable WR like him. He was getting open and making those clutch plays to keep drives alive. Even though his fantasy points might not have blown you away, I’m not worried about him being in my lineup as a consistent safe floor type of play. Lockett’s role in this offense is stable, and those numbers should translate into consistent production going forward.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

Targets per Route Run is the number of targets a player receives when on the field and running a route. This metric helps identify players who are heavily involved in their team’s passing game and have a higher fantasy floor due to consistent opportunities. This number can be skewed when a player does not run many routes and receives targets on those routes, but in those cases, it is interesting to monitor as one could perhaps predict a breakout if a player is consistently high in this metric.

For a deeper dive on TPRR, check out AJ Passman’s Targets per Route Run Report for Week 2.

Overperformer: Michael Wilson (Arizona Cardinals)

TPRR: 0.057
Result: 1 receptions, 5 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 7.0 (half-PPR)

Michael Wilson managed to overperform thanks to his one catch being a touchdown, despite a weak 0.057 TPRR. Kyler Murray barely looked the way of his outside wide receivers, which hurt Wilson’s involvement — just like we saw with Marvin Harrison Jr.’s disappointing debut. Sure, Wilson’s fantasy points look fine this week, but when you’re relying on a single TD to salvage your day, it’s not sustainable. I’m definitely worried about him unless Kyler starts spreading the ball more to the outside in the coming weeks.

Underperformer: Garrett Wilson (New York Jets)

TPRR: 0.355
Result: 6 receptions, 60 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.0 (half-PPR)

Garrett Wilson looked great with a strong 0.355 TPRR, clearly establishing himself as the primary target for Aaron Rodgers. His crisp route running and ability to make plays were on full display, but the Jets’ offense started to bog down as the game progressed, limiting his upside. We saw two older QBs (Kirk Cousins being the other) come off Achilles injuries and not be able to get much going for their teams offensively. Still, I’m not worried about Wilson going forward — he’s too talented to be held back for long, and he is obviously Rodgers’ favorite target.

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

YPRR measures the efficiency of a wide receiver by calculating the yards gained per route run. A higher YPRR suggests a receiver is productive when they are on the field running routes.

Overperformer: Christian Watson (Green Bay Packers)

YPRR: 0.464
Result: 3 receptions, 13 receiving yards, 1 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 8.8 (half-PPR)

Christian Watson’s day was salvaged by a touchdown, but his 0.464 YPRR and limited involvement were concerning. Jayden Reed exploded in the game, which likely took away some opportunities from Watson. Plus, the Packers only ran 58 plays compared to the Eagles’ 74, limiting their offensive output. While Watson has the talent, I’m a bit worried about his future if he continues to lose volume in an offense that could look very iffy over the next few weeks with the injury to Jordan Love.

Underperformer: Rashee Rice (Kansas City Chiefs)

YPRR: 4.292
Result: 7 receptions, 103 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 13.8 (half-PPR)

Rashee Rice‘s price in drafts made no sense once it was clear he wasn’t facing suspension. He’s running a lot of underneath and over-the-middle routes, which usually aren’t the flashiest, but in Kansas City’s scheme with Mahomes and Andy Reid, he’s constantly finding open space and doing damage after the catch. That 4.292 YPRR shows just how efficient he’s been in that role. Rice is thriving, and I don’t think he’s going anywhere anytime soon.

Re-Introducing the Predictive Receiver Score (PRS)

To predict wide receiver success, last year I introduced the Predictive Receiver Score (PRS), a comprehensive metric that combines aDOT, TPRR, YPRR, and Targeted QB Rating into a single value. After much revision and data testing in the offseason, I went in and made adjustments to the calculation. I now use 1D/RR, TPRR, YPRR, and TDRate to come up with a weighted PRS score. PRS offers a holistic view of a receiver’s performance potential. Using this metric we can take a look at who over/underperformed their expected fantasy output, and see if we can’t find a few buy or sell opportunities. I will be updating this section of the report each week with new targets for folks to acquire/look to move, so stay tuned. With only one week in the books though, I want to explain PRS instead, as one week of data is a bit deceiving.

To design this calculation I used a series of linear regressions for each of the four statistics I mentioned above. I looked at the last two seasons in the NFL and came up with simple y=mx+b formulas for each statistic. Once I had these straight-line equations for each statistic, I combined them to make PRS. I am weighing each metric in the calculation based on how high their r-squared is, and these are the weights I have for each stat: 1D/RR – 27.7%, YPRR – 28.1%, TPRR – 24.4%, TDRate – 19.8%. By assigning different weights to each metric, we account for the varying importance of reliability, target volume, and efficiency. A higher PRS indicates a receiver with more fantasy potential.

The final step was to take this PRS calculation and compare it to fantasy points per game over the past two years for each receiver. The results yielded an R-squared of 0.8216, which is far from perfect but does show an extremely high correlation between the two.

Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points

Now, let’s put the PRS to the test by predicting a player’s fantasy points using a linear regression equation:

Predicted Fantasy Points (PFP) = (PRS * Coefficient) + Intercept

Intercept and coefficient are calculated based on historical data for each position and combining them together. By plugging the PRS into this equation, you can estimate a receiver’s expected fantasy points for a given week. This allows fantasy managers to make more informed trades and waiver wire decisions along with identifying potential sleepers or busts.

1D/RR, TPRR, and YPRR are essential metrics for evaluating wide receiver performance in fantasy football. The introduction of the Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) provides a novel way to predict a receiver’s fantasy success and can be utilized to find under and overperformers. Keep an eye on these metrics as the season progresses to gain a competitive edge in your fantasy football league. Good luck in Week 2!

I leave you with a preview of what is to come and a table of the top 24 scorers in PRS this week along with how they faired in actual fantasy points.