Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 16 (Fantasy Football)

Week 15 delivered all the drama, heartbreak, and fantasy chaos we’ve come to expect. Josh Allen officially wrapped up the MVP award, proving why he’s considered the league’s most electrifying player right now. Meanwhile, it seems the Kirk Cousins experiment in Atlanta has hit a hard stop—at least for this season. And then there’s Jonathan Taylor. Oh, JT. Letting go of the ball at the one-yard line not only cost fantasy managers everywhere but also set the tone for a complete Colts collapse in a blowout loss.

With Week 16 on the horizon, the stakes are higher than ever. Whether you’re chasing a championship or clawing your way out of the toilet bowl, there’s no room for mistakes. Let’s break down the performances from Week 15 and figure out what it all means moving forward.

As we look ahead to Week 16, we’ll use key metrics like TPRR, YPRR, and 1D/RR to identify players poised for positive or negative regression. By digging into the data, we’ll discover who’s set to shine and who could be a risk moving forward. Plus, I’ll wrap things up with an updated Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to highlight the biggest movers of the week!

First Downs per Route Run (1D/RR)

Check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!

Overperformer: Tim Patrick (Detroit Lions)

1D/RR: 0.036
Result: 4 receptions, 30 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 11.0 (half-PPR)

The Lions have been playing in high-flying matchups all season, and their Week 15 game was no exception. Amidst the fireworks, Tim Patrick stepped up again, continuing to carve out a role in their offense. Patrick overperformed his modest 0.036 1D/RR by turning limited opportunities into meaningful production, showcasing his ability to make big plays when it counts.

Lately, Patrick has been making his presence felt, and while he’s not a weekly bona fide starter, he’s quietly becoming a deep-league flex consideration. If you’re in need due to injuries or tough matchups, Patrick’s involvement in Detroit’s high-octane offense makes him a viable option. He’s not someone you’d feel great about locking into your lineup, but with the Lions in constant shootouts, there’s always the chance he hits on a big play to salvage your week.

Underperformer: DeAndre Hopkins (Kansas City Chiefs)

1D/RR: 0.143
Result: 5 receptions, 36 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 6.1 (half-PPR)

DeAndre Hopkins had a quiet Week 15, underperforming his 0.143 1D/RR in what was already a tough matchup. Adding to the uncertainty, Patrick Mahomes sprained his ankle in the game, throwing the Chiefs’ offensive outlook into question. Even if Mahomes manages to play, the chemistry between him and Hopkins has been inconsistent, making it hard to trust D-Hop for reliable production.

At this point in the season, Hopkins is not someone I’d want to start unless I was absolutely desperate. The ceiling is there, but the floor has been far too low, especially with the Chiefs’ offense often dialing back their aggression when they don’t need to score. Unless the matchup or injury situation forces your hand, it’s probably best to leave Hopkins on your bench as the fantasy playoffs roll on.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

Check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run deep dive as well!

Overperformer: Jameson Williams (Detroit Lions)

TPRR: 0.084
Result: 3 receptions, 37 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 11.2 (half-PPR)

Jameson Williams had a rollercoaster of a game in Week 15, leaving briefly with an injury before returning to salvage his day with a late touchdown. Despite his 0.084 TPRR, his knack for big plays once again paid off for fantasy managers who took the gamble. The Lions are clicking on offense right now, and with their defense riddled with injuries, this offensive firepower will have to continue if they want to keep winning high-scoring matchups.

Williams’ role in this offense remains volatile, but his ability to stretch the field and make splash plays is undeniable. As long as the Lions are in these shootouts, there’s always the chance for Williams to break loose. While he’s not the most consistent option, he’s showing the potential to deliver in key moments, making him an intriguing flex option for managers looking to swing for the fences.

Underperformer: Jayden Reed (Green Bay Packers)

TPRR: 0.286
Result: 5 receptions, 34 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 5.9 (half-PPR)

Jayden Reed’s struggles continued in Week 15, as he underperformed his impressive 0.286 TPRR yet again. Over the last few weeks, his production has been anything but reliable, leaving managers scratching their heads. Reed’s role in the Packers’ offense has been difficult to pin down, which shouldn’t be a huge surprise given how unpredictable Green Bay’s receiving corps has been all season.

Ironically, the real answer to Green Bay’s fantasy conundrum turned out to be… Josh Jacobs? The Packers’ offensive game plans have leaned so heavily on their running backs that the wideouts, including Reed, have been left fighting for scraps. While Reed’s talent and flashes of brilliance keep him on the radar, his inconsistency makes him a tough player to trust during the fantasy playoffs.

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: Nico Collins (Houston Texans)

YPRR: 0.607
Result: 4 receptions, 17 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 15.7 (half-PPR)

Nico Collins’ Week 15 stat line was a classic case of “saved by touchdowns.” He didn’t do much all game, yet his two short trips to the end zone salvaged what would have otherwise been a forgettable fantasy performance. While managers will happily take those points, the underlying numbers for the Texans’ offense are starting to paint a troubling picture.

C.J. Stroud, after an incredible rookie campaign, appears to be hitting the dreaded sophomore slump. The Texans’ offense hasn’t looked sharp lately, and Stroud’s efficiency has taken a hit, which could be a factor in Nico’s lower-than-expected YPRR trends. Still, Collins remains a trustworthy option in lineups, especially with his knack for finding the end zone. But the advanced stats and recent performances suggest Texans pass-catchers might not be as bankable as we had thought before the season (big time looking at you, Tank Dell).

Underperformer: Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills)

YPRR: 3.20
Result: 1 receptions, 64 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 6.9 (half-PPR)

Keon Coleman’s Week 15 return from a four-week wrist injury was a quiet one, though he flashed the big-play potential we’ve seen glimpses of. He caught one pass, but it was a 64-yard bomb where Josh Allen took a hit and delivered an absolute strike. Looking ahead, there’s real optimism for what Keon can do as he regains full health and sees his role expand. His explosiveness makes him a potential league-winner in Week 16 or 17 with what Allen has been doing each week.

JOSH ALLEN LAUNCHES DEEP.

: #BUFvsDET on CBS/Paramount+
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— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024

Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points

As we wrap up Week 15 and set our sights on Week 16, here’s wishing all of you still in the hunt—whether it’s for the championship, a bronze medal, or simply avoiding the dreaded last-place punishment—the very best of luck. The stakes couldn’t be higher, and every lineup decision feels like a season-defining moment.

It’s a bit surprising that Jerry Jeudy hasn’t cracked the top 24 in PRS yet, as he’s had a Renaissance-type season. Watching how Jeudy can finish it will be intriguing. It’ll be fascinating to see how Drake London’s season wraps up now that Michael Penix Jr. is stepping in at QB as well. Maybe Kyle Pitts will do anything at all. Maybe he likes getting the ball thrown to him by left-handed QBs. The possibilities are endless, but I digress. Good luck to everyone this week no matter what you’re playing for!