Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 15 (Fantasy Football)

The fantasy playoffs are finally here, but Week 14 was a good one! The Bills and Rams treated us to a Hollywood shootout, where Josh Allen and Puka Nacua went absolutely ballistic. Meanwhile, Ja’Marr Chase continues to feed families with the fantasy points he’s racking up for managers lucky enough to roster him this season. And, of course, the Chiefs… well, they just keep getting away with it.

To everyone who made it to the playoffs, congratulations and good luck! For those battling in the toilet bowl, I’m sending you some extra luck as you fight to avoid that last-place punishment. No matter what’s on the line, Week 15 will be a wild one.

As we look ahead to Week 15, we’ll use key metrics like TPRR, YPRR, and 1D/RR to identify players poised for positive or negative regression. By digging into the data, we’ll discover who’s set to shine and who could be a risk moving forward. Plus, I’ll wrap things up with an updated Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to highlight the biggest movers of the week!

First Downs per Route Run (1D/RR)

Check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!

Overperformer: Calvin Ridley (Tennessee Titans)

1D/RR: 0.032
Result: 7 receptions, 59 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.4 (half-PPR)

This Jaguars-Titans game was ugly. Both offenses struggled to gain any momentum, and to make matters worse, Will Levis took a brutal hit, landing hard on his already injured shoulder. Somehow, he played through the pain for the entire second half of what felt like a completely meaningless matchup.

Calvin Ridley, however, managed to have a modest outing, overperforming his 0.032 1D/RR. His impressive 0.35 TPRR (Targets Per Route Run) played a huge role in his production, but Ridley’s inability to convert his opportunities into meaningful plays made the difference between him having a great day and an average day.

Underperformer: Dontayvion Wicks (Green Bay Packers)

1D/RR: 0.167
Result: 4 receptions, 49 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 6.9 (half-PPR)

Thursday Night Football delivered a thrilling shootout, but Dontayvion Wicks didn’t get much of the spotlight. Underperforming his 0.167 1D/RR, Wicks struggled to make a significant impact, as the Packers’ offense leaned heavily on Josh Jacobs, who vultured all the touchdowns for Green Bay. While Jordan Love distributed the ball well, keeping multiple receivers involved, this approach, combined with Jacobs’ dominance, meant no dominant day for the wide receivers (especially you Jayden Reed, what happened this week?).

Wicks remains a deep-league stash, but his fantasy relevance is entirely tied to opportunities. With the fantasy playoffs underway, Wicks is likely best left on benches unless his role expands significantly in the coming weeks.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

Check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run deep dive as well!

Overperformer: Michael Wilson (Arizona Cardinals)

TPRR: 0.094
Result: 2 receptions, 57 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 12.7 (half-PPR)

Michael Wilson found the end zone once again, overperforming his 0.094 TPRR, but that touchdown masked another quiet outing. Let’s be frank—Kyler Murray hasn’t been delivering lately. Unless you’re Trey McBride or manage to score a touchdown, the expectation for Cardinals pass-catchers has been grim, often hovering below 10 fantasy points.

Wilson’s ability to find the end zone offers a glimmer of hope, but that’s not enough to justify a roster spot in redraft leagues at this critical stage of the season. With championship aspirations or the fight to avoid last place on the line, trusting Wilson in your lineup feels like rolling dice on a long shot. In dynasty formats, Wilson remains an intriguing stash, given his flashes of potential.

Underperformer: Amari Cooper (Buffalo Bills)

TPRR: 0.539
Result: 6 receptions, 95 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 12.5 (half-PPR)

Amari Cooper underperformed his staggering 0.539 TPRR in what was one of the wildest numbers we’ve seen all season. In a 42-44 shootout, you’d expect Cooper to have a monster game, but it didn’t quite pan out that way. Despite not blowing up, he did have a good day coming down with six for 95.

Still, if history has taught us anything, it’s that Amari Cooper has a knack for turning up when it matters most—down the stretch and in the fantasy playoffs. As the Browns look to finish their season strong, Cooper could very well do what he’s done in past years: deliver clutch performances for managers chasing championship glory.

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: DeAndre Hopkins (Kansas City Chiefs)

YPRR: 1.143
Result: 4 receptions, 32 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 11.2 (half-PPR)

DeAndre Hopkins overperformed his 1.143 YPRR this week. While his move to Kansas City has been decent from a real-life perspective, it hasn’t translated into consistent fantasy glory. Hopkins has shown flashes of brilliance but hasn’t delivered the week-winning performances managers hoped for when they rostered him.

The Chiefs’ approach to scoring—doing just enough to win—has been frustrating for fantasy purposes. If the opposing team isn’t forcing Kansas City into a shootout, their offensive output can be disappointingly muted. This leaves managers in a bind, as Hopkins’ ceiling is tied directly to game script. For now, Hopkins remains a risky play in fantasy lineups, albeit one with undeniable upside when the stars align.

Underperformer: Christian Watson (Green Bay Packers)

YPRR: 5.182
Result: 4 receptions, 114 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 13.4 (half-PPR)

Christian Watson underperformed his astronomical 5.182 YPRR in the Packers’ wild shootout. Turning that elite efficiency into just 13.4 fantasy points makes this one of the more puzzling underperformances of the season. Despite the modest output, Watson showed well in this game and came tantalizingly close to a massive 20+ point explosion.

The connection between Watson and Jordan Love is increasingly clear, with deep shots coming his way almost every game. While this makes him a risky start, the potential for a monster performance is always looming. As fantasy playoffs intensify, Watson offers a boom-or-bust flex option for managers willing to gamble on his game-breaking speed delivering in a big way.

Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points

What a wild ride Week 14 gave us. Amari, here’s hoping you’ve got some playoff magic left in you. Christian, buddy, we were all rooting for that deep ball to hit this week. And DeAndre, your steady contributions to the Chiefs are appreciated, but a little more fireworks would be nice next time. PRS is updated below (new #1), and keep in mind, use these rankings as we go forward as a way to think about next year, whether that be dynasty trades or for your redraft.

It’s officially playoff time, folks! Good luck to everyone still fighting for glory, and an extra nod to those dodging last-place punishments in the toilet bowl. For the teams on a bye this week, kick back, relax, and enjoy the chaos. The rest of us will be here, sweating out every snap as we chase those ships!