AFC West Divisional Podcast Recap for 2024 (Fantasy Football)

Saving the best for last, the Ballers have walked through each of the AFC divisions to take a deep dive into how they see the teams stacking up ahead of the 2024 season. The AFC West only had one team finish 2023 with a winning record, so as a whole, it was a disappointing season, but is still a division that provides plenty of intrigue moving forward. The only thing that isn’t overly intriguing about the AFC West is who’s the best bet to win it. Kansas City has claimed the crown in the division for eight straight seasons, and during that stretch, Patrick Mahomes is 30-5 against his division foes.

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Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)

Player Additions: WR – Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, QB – Carson Wentz
Player Subtractions: WR – Marquez Valdes-Scantling, RB – Jerick McKinnon
Rookies: WR – Xavier Worthy (1st Round), TE – Jared Wiley (4th Round)

Starting with the champs, The Kansas City Chiefs have been one of the best offenses to invest in for fantasy football managers since Patrick Mahomes became the starting QB in 2018. While the Chiefs were still a great team in 2023, their games didn’t get into “shootout” status as often as they have in the past mainly thanks to a much-improved defense that they leaned on until the offense got rolling again.

While Mahomes is still the best QB in the league, when it comes to fantasy he’s a tough bet for fantasy managers to be making as the current QB3 off the board. The 2023 season left fantasy managers wanting more down the stretch of the season, with Mahomes only finishing inside the top 12 once from Week 11 on. What fantasy managers will have to decide on is if they believe Kansas City will continue to run their offense the same way they did down the stretch of the season and through the Super Bowl with shorter passes averaging just 4.1 air yards per completion last season.

What could be encouraging for a change from the Mahomes we saw last season is the investment the Chiefs made toward additional receiving options this offseason. The addition of Hollywood Brown is tough to gauge since it’s been two seasons since the WR finished inside the top 24 on the year. Brown struggled against zone last season in Arizona, so unless he finds new life early in the season, he may be just another cog in the machine like fantasy managers have seen with Mecole Hardman or Marquez Valdes-Scantling in years past. While Brown isn’t anything to get overly excited about, first-round WR Xavier Worthy could bring visions of the Mahomes-Hill connection that fantasy managers have been searching for since Tyreek Hill’s departure after the 2021 season. Worthy brings plenty of speed to Kansas City’s offense, but the challenge will be figuring out how early he gets involved as a rookie.

The biggest question mark of who fantasy managers should be betting on the Chiefs’ WR room will hinge on any potential suspension there may be for second-year WR Rashee Rice. Rice took huge steps forward for the Chiefs’ passing game after the team’s bye in 2023, seeing 25% of the targets and averaging 13.6 fantasy points per game from Week 11 on. Until the league makes a decision on how they’ll be disciplining Rice for his off-the-field issues, any investment is a dart throw for his 2024 outlook.

It feels weird to be this deep into a Kansas City offense preview and not yet mention Travis Kelce, but the TE’s 2023 season was a bit of a disappointment after fantasy managers have come to expect week-winning finishes multiple times throughout the year. Kelce will enter 2024 coming off career lows in yards per reception, average depth of target, and receiving TDs. The good news is Kelce’s draft price is lower than it’s been since 2018 so it may be easier for managers to make the investment this season.

When it comes to the RB room in Kansas City, Isiah Pacheco should be expected to pick up where he left off after finishing as the RB16 in 2023. Jason mentioned Pacheco as a breakout candidate earlier this summer, and rightfully so. Pacheco averaged 20.4 opportunities per game in the second half of 2023, turning that into 17.5 fantasy points per game. As the current RB12 off the board, Pacheco could provide a safe floor in one of the best offenses in the league for fantasy managers with little threat of competition.

Vegas Predicts 11.5 wins for the Chiefs this season.

Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)

Player Additions: QB – Gardner Minshew, RB – Alexander Mattison, WR – Michael Gallup
Player Subtractions: QB – Jimmy Garoppolo, WR – Hunter Renfrow, TE – Austin Hooper
Rookies: TE – Brock Bowers (1st Round), RB – Dylan Laube (6th Round)

You might be surprised to remember that the Raiders finished second in the AFC West last season after finishing the year 5-4 under then-interim and now-new head coach, Antonio Pierce. The Raiders’ defense was the key to their turnaround, but the offense left much to be desired with QB play that could be described as mediocre at best. With Luke Getsy brought in to run the Las Vegas offense, there shouldn’t be a ton of hope that the passing volume sees an increase. In his last two seasons as the Chicago Bears OC, Getsy’s offenses saw 558 and 534 rushing attempts. Granted, most of those games were with a mobile QB in Justin Fields, but Chicago also finished with the fifth-fewest and fewest passing attempts in 2023 and 2022 respectively.

The biggest mystery of the Raiders’ offense as we head into training camp is who will be under center when the season starts. Second-year QB Aidan O’Connell started the 10 games that Pierce served as interim head coach in 2023, and while he never made mistakes to cost the Raiders games, he also struggled to make game-changing plays when needed. AOC will compete with Gardner Minshew for the starting job after Minshew nearly led the Colts to a playoff birth when he took over for Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis. The reality is that neither Minshew nor O’Connell should move the needle up or down for the pieces in the Raiders’ offense.

Death. Taxes. Another top-12 WR finish for Davante Adams. While this one wasn’t near as pretty, Adams finished as the WR11 behind some U-G-L-Y QB play at times last season. What should be encouraging for fantasy managers is after the coaching change in Week 8, Adams was on pace for over 180 targets and nearly 10 TDs with a fourth-round rookie QB and a first-time NFL play-caller. Fantasy managers shouldn’t be worried about the ability still being there for Adams, but rather the draft cost they’re still having to give up to get him as the current WR11 off the board. Jakobi Meyers on the other hand didn’t fare as well after the coaching change, seeing his targets per game dip from 8.8 to 5.3 with AOC under center. With the passing volume expected to be lower than O’Connell’s 32 attempts per game he averaged during his stint as starter last season, there may not be enough of a pie to go around to keep more than one fantasy-relevant WR in Las Vegas.

If there’s going to be another hot name in the receiving game for the Raiders come draft season, rookie TE Brock Bowers will be the one. Bowers was drafted with the 13th-overall pick by the Raiders and profiles as one of the best-receiving options at TE to come into the league. It’s always tough to bet on a rookie TE, but given the recent success of rookie TEs in 2023, it may be more tempting to bet on Bowers being productive for fantasy this season. Given his current draft cost as the TE9, fantasy managers may be drafting Bowers at his ceiling which may limit how effective he should be for lineups.

The biggest beneficiary of the regime change in Las Vegas could be RB Zamir White as he steps into the lead role for the Raiders. White took over for Josh Jacobs down the stretch of the season in 2023 and touched the ball 93 times over the Raiders’ final four games of the season and finished as a top-20 RB in each of those games. Based on how much the Raiders seem to want to run the ball, if White maintains his hold on the lead role in the offense, he could provide great value to fantasy managers as the RB24 off the board currently. One deeper RB name to keep an eye on for the Raiders that won’t get mentioned much is rookie sixth-round pick Dylan Laube. While Laube doesn’t have the draft capital to assure he’s going to be anything, the receiving game isn’t where White is at his best averaging just two receptions per game where he was the lead back. Laube on the other hand could be a factor in the passing game where he was very successful in college. In his final year at New Hampshire, Laube’s 68 receptions were more than first-round WRs Brian Thomas Jr, Marvin Harrison Jr, and Ricky Pearsall had in their final years.

Vegas Predicts 6.5 wins for the Raiders this season.

Denver Broncos (8-9)

Player Additions: WR – Josh Reynolds, QB – Zachary Wilson
Player Subtractions: QB – Russell Wilson, WR – Jerry Jeudy
Rookies: QB – Bo Nix (1st Round), WR – Troy Franklin (4th Round), RB – Audric Estime (5th Round), WR – Devaughn Vele (7th Round)

The rebuild in Denver has been a failed experiment so far. After making a big splash in 2022 to acquire Russell Wilson, the Broncos have since cut the QB and are paying him to play in Pittsburgh this season. To try and move forward, Denver invested the 12th overall pick in QB Bo Nix. Nix enters the league at 24 years old after starting an NCAA record 60 games in his collegiate career en route to breaking the FBS single-season completion percentage record just last year. If Nix can pick up the offense, fantasy managers should expect to see him under center for the Broncos sooner rather than later.

Denver’s RB room might be one of the biggest question marks that fantasy managers can find value in as we head into training camps. While there wasn’t a standout RB on the roster from last season, Broncos RBs led the NFL in receptions with 131 in 2023 with three Denver RBs finishing in the top eight in RB targets per route run. The puzzle for fantasy managers will be figuring out if any of the returning or rookie RBs can make headway into being a true lead back for this team. Javonte Williams should stand the best chance of being the top RB in Denver with another year removed from the knee injury that cost him most of the 2022 season, but rookie Jaleel McLaughlin put a decent dent in his workload last season and Samaje Perine totaled 50 receptions on just 34% of the teams snaps. When you add in two more rookies that the Broncos added – Audric Estime and Blake Watson – the waters are plenty muddy in this RB room. For fantasy managers, picking a horse come draft season may be their best bet to try and capture what could be a productive backfield if anyone emerges as the clear leader.

Despite a lackluster offense as a whole in 2023, there was value to be had from the Broncos WRs, especially Courtland Sutton who finished with 10 TDs. Sutton’s TD consistency was impressive, but he still finished as the WR35 on the year which is difficult to do. Since 2000, among the 158 WRs that have caught 10+ TDs, Sutton’s 2023 production would rank 152nd. The rest of the returning receiving group for Denver is up in the air with Marvin Mims and Tim Patrick looking to create more need for themselves in the offense along with the addition of rookie Troy Franklin. Mims created excitement whenever he got the ball last season, though that wasn’t very often, only seeing 32 targets on the year. Patrick has been on the field since 2021 due to injury, so fantasy managers won’t really know what player they’re getting until they see him back in the offense again. Franklin is an intriguing addition to the Broncos. Nix and Franklin were teammates at Oregon so there should already be a level of comfort in the offense between those two players. What will be interesting is if Franklin can break the “Day three death sentence” the Ballers described, with 92% of WRs drafted in Round 4 or later being mostly irrelevant for fantasy over the last decade.

Vegas Predicts 5.5 wins for the Broncos this season.

Los Angeles Chargers (5-12)

Player Additions: RB – Gus Edwards, RB – JK Dobbins, WR – D.J. Chark Jr., TE – Will Dissly, TE – Hayden Hurst
Player Subtractions: WR – Keenan Allen, WR – Mike Williams, RB – Austin Ekeler, TE – Gerald Everett, WR – Jalen Guyton
Rookies: WR – Ladd McConkey (2nd Round), RB – Kimani Vidal (6th Round)

The darling of most pundits to contend with the Chiefs for the AFC West lies in Los Angeles with the Chargers. L.A. made the head coaching splash of the offseason, bringing Jim Harbaugh from Michigan to the powder blue along with Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman who’s known for his running offenses throughout the years.

Between the coaching changes and personnel turnover, this offense will look plenty different in 2024, but the one consistent factor for the Chargers will be under center with QB Justin Herbert. In 2023, Herbert started the season on fire, finishing as a top-12 QB in eight of his first 10 games including six top-six QB finishes. While he did slow down and miss the final three games of the season, the decrease in production could be attributed to the lack of offensive weapons with WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missing significant time and RB Austin Ekeler taking a large production step backward. Looking forward, it’s likely Herbert will be asked to run a much different offense than we’ve seen him in over his first four seasons with more of an emphasis on the running game. Still, fantasy managers may be able to find value with Herbert’s current draft price as the QB16 off the board in what most are anticipating to be a much-improved offense this season.

Outside of Herbert, the Chargers’ offense is full of question marks, starting with the RB room. With the departure of Austin Ekeler, new faces from Baltimore are in the RB room with Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins. Edwards had a TD-heavy season in 2023, finishing with 13 TDs on the year as the RB20. While Edwards has never been able to take a lead role in the past, this may be his best chance with Dobbins’ ability to get back on the field being in question after missing the entire 2023 season. Even if Dobbins is splitting time with Edwards, they could both end up being valuable fantasy assets in G-Ro’s offense as we’ve seen in the past. The wildcard for this backfield is sixth-round RB Kimani Vidal. Vidal had two productive seasons at Troy to end his collegiate career so there’s optimism around him being able to carve out a role if given the opportunity.

There may not be a WR room that’s more of an unknown than the Chargers’ to start the 2024 season. With the departures of WRs Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Jalen Guyton along with Ekeler, L.A.’s offense vacated 395 targets from last season, the most of any team over the last five years. While there may not be as many targets again this season, there’s still plenty of opportunity for fantasy value in this passing game. Possibly the most likely candidate to step into the lead WR role for the Chargers is their first-round pick, Ladd McConkey. The Georgia product could try to do his best Keenan Allen impersonation for Herbert and become his favorite target early on. McConkey’s collegiate production wasn’t elite but there are plenty of tools there that are worth taking note of. The returning WRs – Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston – will be looking to prove they can do what they couldn’t last season and step into a bigger role for this offense. Palmer missed seven games in 2023 but did show he had the ability to be a fantasy option with two top-12 WR finishes. Johnston got plenty of opportunities as a rookie, playing over 77% of snaps from Week 9 onward, but didn’t post a single top-24 WR week. The list of WRs drafted in the first round of the NFL draft that didn’t put together a single top-24 WR week as a rookie isn’t a great one to have landed on, so unless Johnston makes leaps forward in his development, the chances are unlikely that he’ll be a reliable option for fantasy managers.

Vegas Predicts 9.5 wins for the Chargers this season.

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