The kickoff of the 2024 NFL season grows closer, and the guys continue with their divisional breakdowns. Today, Andy, Mike, and Jason are tackling the AFC South. As we continue the series, here is a reminder: this is a general overview of the teams. The guys will discuss offseason changes from 2023 to 2024 (i.e. players, rookies, and coaches), give an overview of last year’s offense and how it might function this season, and give some of their takes on win totals and who could win the division.
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Here we go!
Let’s Get Divisional – AFC South
The AFC South was highly competitive last year, with three teams in contention heading into Week 18. This division is full of young QBs: C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis, the oldest at 25.
What are the young bucks going to do this year?
Houston Texans (10-7)
Houston went from last to first last year, which was a surprise as they were only expected to win 6.5 games. Stroud led them to a division win, but according to Warren Sharp, they do have the seventh hardest strength of schedule for this upcoming year. This team knows their window to win is now, and they went out and took some chances, adding personnel to push them over the edge.
They added a couple of great edge rushers in addition to Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon on the offense. Mike tells us to be cautious with how high Stroud is being drafted (fourth round) since he is a pocket passer and must explode to be worth that value. The addition of Mixon looks promising – he was the only RB in fantasy to finish in the top 12 each of the last three years. He is an excellent value for drafters this year.
The WRs were on fire last year, both Nico Collins and Tank Dell impressed. Collins caught 100% of his “catchable targets” of 15+ yards down the field, and Dell had a window when he was WR3. Throw in the addition of Diggs who had a great first half of the season last year, and whatever you believe about the man, you know that he is adding firepower to the WR room in Houston.
Vegas predicts 9.5 wins for the Texans this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
The Jekyll and Hyde team is up next. Coming off of their Week 12 win, the Jags were 8-3 and then went 1-5 for the rest of the season, partially due to Lawrence dealing with injuries every week. They were one of the worst with turnovers, and it was incredibly disappointing that they could not be more successful offensively with the weapons they had on the roster.
They lost Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones and added Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. Christian Kirk is still their number one option, but you never pump your fist after drafting him – he won’t ever be a week winner for you. Andy is concerned about the outcome for the team if Davis and Thomas don’t deliver. If this happens, an investment in Evan Engram and Kirk could be fruitful on volume alone.
The team’s schedule to start the year is scary, which might make managers pause before drafting Travis Etienne, who was a clear workhorse back. Jason still thinks he is a somewhat safe pick.
Vegas predicts 8.5 wins for the Jaguars this season.
Indianapolis Colts (9-8)
The Colts had a great end of season, even after losing their starting QB Anthony Richardson, as they played against rookie and backup QBs from Week 13 on. Shane Steichen pieced it together well, and expectations are high heading into the season. The guys believe in Anthony Richardson – with Joe Flacco waiting in the wings in case of injury – and the team has the seventh easiest strength of schedule.
Indy drafted Adonai Mitchell, who joins cardio king Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, and Pitty City. TE Jelani Woods returns from injury, and RB Zack Moss has left, much to Jason’s chagrin. We have never seen Richardson and Jonathan Taylor on the field together, which might put a ceiling on Taylor’s rushing ability since Richardson is such a mobile QB. This team might have the broadest range of outcomes for this year.
Vegas predicts 8.5 wins for the Colts this season.
Tennessee Titans (6-11)
It is Bananarama time again, as we get Levis for his first full season. Andy believes that if the offensive line can improve, Levis has a lot of the intangibles to extend plays and do great things down the field, especially with his offensive weapons.
The Titans now have a veteran receiving core with Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd joining DeAndre Hopkins, but the defense still needs to be improved, which might end up being good for fantasy. The RB room is Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, who are later-round fantasy draft picks, but Mike is concerned that the coaching staff is referring to these two as interchangeable. Managers might not be comfortable starting either on a week-to-week basis.
Andy is a big believer in Ridley, single-handedly driving up his draft cost.
Vegas predicts 6.5 wins for the Titans this season.
Who Wins the Division?
Andy says Houston wins with Jacksonville slipping to last place. Jason thinks Indianapolis will pull out the division win with Tennessee in the basement, and Mike sees a repeat of last season.
https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/analysis/afc-south-divisional-podcast-recap-for-2024-fantasy-football/
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