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AFC North Divisional Podcast Recap for 2024 (Fantasy Football)

July 10, 2024
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We begin our 2024 divisional breakdowns with the AFC North, the first division since 1935 where all four teams finished above .500. Andy hosts through injury as The Ballers discuss all of the offseason changes for each team, as well as their fantasy impact for this upcoming season.

A reminder that we are up to three shows a week now – tune into The Fantasy Footballers Podcast on any and all of your devices!

To take an even deeper dive into fantasy players in the AFC North, make sure to check out the full array of the UDK’s tools available to make your fantasy team a champion!

Let’s Get Divisional – AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (13-4)

Player Additions: RB Derrick Henry,
Player Subtractions: RB Gus Edwards, RB J.K. Dobbins, WR Odell Beckham, WR Devin Duvernay, QB Tyler Huntley
Rookies: WR Devontez Walker (Round 4), Rasheen Ali (Round 5)

2023 Offensive Ranks

PPG Pass Att Pass Yards Pass TDs Rush Att Rush Yards Rush TDs
4 30 21 12 1 1 4

The Todd Monken experience proved successful in year one, revitalizing the Ravens’ offense. Lamar Jackson silenced all doubt of his passing abilities, putting up career-highs in completion percentage (67.2%) and yards (3,678), along with 24 passing TDs, seven interceptions, and finishing fourth in the league with a 102.7 passer rating.

For fantasy purposes, this didn’t result in the Madden-esque rushing numbers we’ve grown accustomed to, but it still ended with the QB4 overall finish and proved Lamar has another level to his game. Perhaps we’ll never again see the 1,000+ yard rusher from ’19 and ’20, but his 821 rushing yards and five touchdowns helped propel him back into top-five status at the position, which is where his ADP appropriately lies today. Although we all love the highlight-reel rushing attempts, Lamar’s adapted play style may prolong his career in real-life football (if anyone cares about that), and he remains one of the most exciting and electric playmakers this league has ever seen.

The signing of RB Derrick Henry has seemingly masked the loss of three prominent starters on the Ravens’ OL. After entering the ’23 season with PFF’s fifth-ranked offensive line, they will be entering this season ranked 25th. The team invested a round-two pick on OT Roger Rosengarten, but their success on the ground will be an interesting storyline as we enter the ’24 season.

Zay Flowers #breakoutSZN is upon us, after finishing WR30 last season. Flowers showed elite talent in flashes but was the clear-cut second receiving option on this team when Mark Andrews was on the field. What was still a respectable 22% target share with Andrews would skyrocket to 28% when Andrews missed time. What’s concerning with these numbers is that despite a solid 24.4% target share on the season, he still only finished as WR30. Comparing this to someone like DeVonta Smith who had a lower target share (22.4%), but still finished as WR20, I have hesitation about what Flowers’ ceiling could look like. On the flip side, the team lost WR Odell Beckham to Miami this offseason, leaving 4.6 vacated targets/game, which could/should only benefit Flowers. He is an extremely exciting player who will deliver week-winning games, but he will need to take another leap to enter the mid-range WR2 outcome that many are predicting for him.

Although the community seems to be fading Mark Andrews, he still finished as the TE13 last season, despite only playing 10 games. Let me restate that. Mark Andrews missed seven games last season and was almost a TE1.

The dip in value (Andrews will be entering his age-29 season) can only be due to injury concern after a cringe-worthy ankle and fibula injury in Week 11, leading to the eventual ban of the “hip-drop tackle.” While certainly not at full strength, it was promising to see Andrews suit up for the Ravens’ playoff game against the Chiefs, leading us to believe that he should be entering this season once again at full health. Andrews’ 11.3 PPG came in fourth of all TEs (Sam Laporta finished first at 11.5 PPG), which is where his ADP currently lies; however, I can vouch that he just went off the board as TE7 in my #SFB14 draft. Andrews is and will be the number one target in this offense, and if you’re willing to overlook the injury risk, you may just end up with a steal of a draft pick, with TE1 overall upside.

The Ravens’ opening schedule is going to be rough. They open the season at KC, followed by Las Vegas at home, on the road at Dallas, then at home against Buffalo. These are four straight defenses that will likely present challenges for the Ravens’ offense. If you choose to fade any of the above players in your draft, it could be wise to monitor their early-season performances and begin making offers around Week 3 if your league-mates are feeling discouraged.

2024 Vegas Projected Win Total: 10.5 

Cleveland Browns (11-6)

Player Additions: WR Jerry Jeudy, QB Jameis Winston, RB Nyheim Hines, RB D’Onta Foreman
Player Subtractions: TE Harrison Bryant, QB Joe Flacco
Rookies: WR Jamari Thrash (Round 5)

2023 Offensive Ranks

PPG Pass Att Pass Yards Pass TDs Rush Att Rush Yards Rush TDs
11 5 19 17 4 12 14

The Browns defied all odds last season, making the playoffs at 11-6 while starting five different QBs and losing star RB Nick Chubb in Week 2. QB Joe Flacco revitalized his career, departing mid-movie night with his family to post QB2 overall numbers from Weeks 13 through 17 (he did not play Week 18). This led to a one-year contract in Indianapolis, where he will back up and mentor emerging star, Anthony Richardson.

Deshaun Watson has all the tools to put together a QB1 season, leaving little room for any more excuses. He will be playing behind PFF’s fourth-ranked offensive line, has a solid run game, an above-average WR room, and the number one-ranked defense in yards allowed/game. The Browns brought over new OC Ken Dorsey (most recently in Buffalo), who has helped in the development of both Cam Newton and Josh Allen and has already spoken of a new scheme, built strictly for Watson’s play style. We’ve all seen Watson’s upside, with five top-12 finishes in his last 11 full games, but the community (and the Browns) are growing impatient.

This RB room is going to be…confusing. RB Nick Chubb is currently going off the board first at RB29, while Jerome Ford remains on the board for several more rounds at RB41. If the Browns are smart, they would learn a lesson from Denver and Baltimore (Javonte Williams and J.K. Dobbins), and allow Chubb to continue his rehab by starting the season on the PUP. With a competent Ford and the addition of D’Onta Foreman, they have a serviceable backfield that could allow for the full rehabilitation for a 28-year-old RB coming off a catastrophic injury.

The WR room will once again be headlined by Amari Cooper, who finished last season as WR14 and is currently being drafted at WR24. This discrepancy is far too high for someone who has consistently shown WR1 upside, and will once again be the top target earner on their team. The general consensus is that Cooper was only productive with Flacco, however in the five full games that Cooper and Watson played together, they were on pace for 1,600 yards and seven touchdowns. Fantasy managers should be ecstatic with taking Cooper as the WR2 or even WR3 on their teams this season.

The Browns also added WR Jerry Jeudy to an (arguably) far-too-lucrative contract, however, perhaps a change of scenery will help the former first-round pick’s production. This addition does not concern me for Cooper or Njoku but does lower the dynasty stock of anyone holding out hope on Cedric Tillman and/or Elijah Moore.

TE David Njoku was amazing to close out the ’23 season, finishing as TE6 on the year. Although a lot of his monster games did come with Flacco at the helm, he has finally cemented himself into that low-end TE1 category, with top-five upside. Njoku did not have the same rapport with Watson that Cooper did, however, it is evident he should be an integral part of their game plan moving forward, and I expect the Browns to make that a priority. At a current price tag of TE10, Njoku could be a great value for anyone hoping to wait a bit at the position.

2024 Vegas Projected Win Total: 9.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

Player Additions: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, WR Van Jefferson, WR Quez Watkins, WR Cordarrelle Patterson
Player Subtractions: QB Kenny Pickett, QB Mason Rudolph, QB Mitch Trubisky, WR Diontae Johnson, WR Allen Robinson
Rookies: WR Roman Wilson (Round 3)

2023 Offensive Ranks

PPG Pass Att Pass Yards Pass TDs Rush Att Rush Yards Rush TDs
27 29 27 30 9 13 11

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off one of the most impressive and hard-to-watch seasons in recent NFL history. Credit to Mike Tomlin, who was able to weather the Matt Canada storm for 2.5 years, continuing his streak of 17 straight seasons over .500. Impressive stuff, right there.

The Steelers revamped their QB room heading into ’24, trading Kenny Pickett to Philadelphia, allowing Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky to walk in free agency, and replacing them with other failed experiments, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Although neither of these signings is incredibly inspiring, they are certainly upgrades, and I do have to commend the Steelers for these moves. They are bringing in a seasoned veteran along with an athletic, former first-round pick; both of which are on team-friendly deals. This is the definition of a low-risk, high-reward situation:

  • Best case scenario: Wilson is great all year and performs like the Super Bowl-winning Wilson of old.
      • Fields waits in the wings and learns from the experienced player ahead of him.
  • Middling scenario: Wilson is decent, but is replaced by Fields sometime midseason.
      • Wilson serves as a mentor, while the team sees what they have in Fields.
  • Worst case scenario: The middling scenario plays out, and both of them are just actually terrible.
      • They move on from both and re-address the QB position next year, at very little cost.

The RB room will be once again led by the dynamic duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, which hit second gear the moment Canada was removed from the equation. As much as we all collectively hate new OC Arthur Smith, he has always built an impressive run game. Is it ever the player we want or expect it to be? No, it’s not. Will it be extremely aggravating? Yes, it will. But Pittsburgh invested heavily into their offensive line this offseason, now ranking ninth via PFF, which presents solid value for both of these players at their current ADPs.

George Pickens has been thrust into the WR1 role of this team. While Pickens’ 1,140 yards and five touchdowns look great on paper, this was done in an extremely inconsistent fashion, displaying one of the highest ceilings and lowest floors on a week-to-week basis. With that said, the trade of WR Diontae Johnson (to Carolina) tells us all we need to know about how the team views him. With journeyman Van Jefferson and third-round pick Roman Wilson as the only immediate replacements, we can safely project Pickens to resume his eight or more targets/game that he averaged without Diontae on the field. Cue the Russell Wilson moonball, and be prepared for another year of incredible highlight catches from Pickens.

The one player falling under the radar here is Pat Freiermuth. Currently going off the board as TE16, the ‘Muth is one of my favorite “punt” options available at TE. He was a highly-touted college prospect drafted in the second round, who put up TE13 and TE8 numbers in his first two seasons as a pro. He did have a down year in ’23 due to a myriad of injuries, but who could have a good year on a team that could only muster 13 passing touchdowns? With an improvement at the QB position and Diontae vacating a 23.5% target share (including a 26.3% red zone share), Freiermuth slides in as the potential number two receiving option on this team, and may become the top red zone target right away.

2024 Vegas Projected Win Total: 8.5

Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)

Player Additions: TE Mike Gesicki, RB Zack Moss
Player Subtractions: RB Joe Mixon, WR Tyler Boyd
Rookies: WR Jermaine Burton (Round 3), TE Erick All (Round 4), TE Tanner McLachlan (Round 6)

2023 Offensive Ranks

PPG Pass Att Pass Yards Pass TDs Rush Att Rush Yards Rush TDs
16 7 12 13 30 31 19

Although Jake Browning proved a reasonable replacement for Joe Burrow, he stood no chance against the true juggernauts of the NFL. Burrow faced an unfortunate series of events last year, playing through a strained calf in training camp, followed by a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11. Presumably entering this season at full health, we have to expect a bounce-back year for this entire offense, putting Burrow firmly back in the top-10 rankings we saw in ’21 and ’22.

The loss of Joe Mixon was mourned quickly in Cincy, with the addition of Zack Moss following the most productive season of his career in Indianapolis. While I like the landing spot, the contract, and the guaranteed touches for Moss, I do have concerns about a player joining his third team in as many seasons. As good as Moss looked (in a short sample size), the Colts have a far superior offensive line, and this move was made for budgetary reasons, as Cincinnati tries to figure out extensions for both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. This also doubled down on Chase Brown as the change-of-pace back moving forward. While Brown does not have the size or skill set to be a true every-down back, he has elite speed and could provide high upside with the six to 10 touches/game the team was manufacturing for him down the stretch. While neither may be a true difference maker, both of these RBs could return value at their ADP, especially for those in the “zero RB” camp.

The WR room is comprised once again of superstar Ja’Marr Chase and camp holdout Tee Higgins. With Burrow healthy, I am treating Chase as a top-three or four WR once again, while Higgins is being criminally undervalued at WR29. Coming off an injury-riddled ’23 season, Higgins put up WR22 and WR17 seasons in ’21 and ’22, respectively. While these may not be elite numbers, this is a value I’m happy to target as my WR2 or (ideally) WR3. Higgins is entering a contract year and will be highly motivated to perform at a high level and stay on the field. Meanwhile, Jermaine Burton is a name to familiarize yourself with. Burton is a player who slipped in the draft due to off-the-field concerns, but was taken in the third round, and is someone most analysts are predicting to replace Higgins next season. Burton is simply a dynasty stash at the moment, but given the departure of Tyler Boyd, he could see playing time (in 3WR sets) sooner rather than later.

The addition of Mike Gesicki muddies an already crowded TE room of mediocrity, alongside Tanner Hudson and Drew Sample. All three of these players are better in real life than in fantasy, and will all likely eat into each other’s workload. Unless we see a dramatic return to form from Gesicki, they will all be off my radar in standard drafts.

2024 Vegas Projected Win Total: 10.5

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