5 picks and best bets to make right now for the 2024 NFL season, inc. Cowboys vs Browns & 49ers vs Bills

After a long and eventful offseason, the 2024 NFL campaign is just around the corner. The grueling battle for the Lombardi Trophy begins on September 5 with Thursday Night Football featuring the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs to kick off the campaign. Could this AFC Championship Game rematch be a preview of what’s to come next January? It’s quite possible.

With most of the offseason moves in the rearview mirror, it’s time to look at the Game of Year market and take a look at our best bets for both Week 1 and beyond. There is plenty of value to be had on betting into these lines in advance, as they’ll likely move significantly as the season progresses. Let’s dive into the Game of the Year market and take a look at the best NFL odds and my 5 best NFL picks to make before Week 1.

Week 1: Cleveland Browns -1.5 over Dallas Cowboys (-110)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. 

There has been some sharp money in the market pushing this number up slightly as we get closer to Week 1, and it’s easy to see why. It was not exactly an offseason to remember for the Dallas Cowboys, and I expect those bad vibes to continue into their season opener against a Browns team that should approach this game like it’s their Super Bowl.

The Cowboys have had no trouble muscling up and defending their home turf in the Mike McCarthy era. However, that level of dominance has not translated to much success on the road, particularly against playoff caliber teams. Don’t expect that to change to open the season, as a lack of a strong running game and a clear dependence on one wide receiver (CeeDee Lamb) could doom Dallas in a matchup against the league’s best defense away from the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium. For my money, Cleveland may not even need solid quarterback play from Deshaun Watson to cover this short number at home.

Week 5: Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 over New Orleans Saints (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. 

The Saints are in no man’s land, which is arguably the worst position you can be in as an NFL franchise. That’s what having Derek Carr gets you in today’s day and age, but at least New Orleans gets the benefit of having one of the easiest schedules in the league this season based on opponent win totals. However, one of the worst spots on this schedule comes in Week 5 when the Saints will head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs on Monday Night Football.

This will not only be the second straight road game for New Orleans, but the Saints will also be playing their fourth straight game against a team projected to make the postseason. Throw in the fact that Kansas City has a bye week on deck, so there will be no overlook for Andy Reid’s team in this spot. Look for Patrick Mahomes and company to put on a show under the lights with the nation watching.

Week 6: Detroit Lions ML over Dallas Cowboys (+100)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. 

We’re fading the Cowboys again in one of the best revenge spots of the season in Week 6. The Detroit Lions absolutely should’ve beaten the Dallas on the road last season, but ultimately fell short thanks to some untimely officiating gaffes. This time around, the Lions are in prime position to take advantage of a Cowboys team that will be coming off a road game in prime time against Pittsburgh the previous week with the 49ers on deck.

Conversely, Detroit will have had a bye the previous week, giving offensive coordinator Ben Johnson plenty of time to cook up the perfect offensive game plan to attack this Dallas defense that I’m projecting to have some major issues in the secondary. As long as the Lions offensive line can keep Jared Goff protected for the majority of the contest, he should have no trouble spreading the ball around and having plenty of success in this dome environment. I’ll gladly take the Lions as underdogs, as the line could flip by game week.

Week 12: Chicago Bears -3 over Minnesota Vikings (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. 

I’m not exactly a long term believer on the Chicago Bears this season, but we’re getting a fantastic scheduling spot to back Caleb Williams and company against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 12. The Vikings have one of the toughest schedules in football and they’ll head into this game after having already played two consecutive road games against Jacksonville and Tennessee. Now, Minnesota will head to Soldier Field for a matchup against a divisional foe in the cold after a couple of warmer weather encounters against much different offenses.

Despite my trepidation with the market love for the Bears heading into this season, Williams should be much more equipped to handle business as a favorite by this point in the campaign. Furthermore, the Vikings quarterback situation could be a real issue by this stage in the season, so I’ll grab the field goal with the Bears before any possible movement down the road.

Week 13: Buffalo Bills ML over San Francisco 49ers (+110)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. 

This is a line that I could see being flipped by the time we get to late November, so why not take a shot with one of the best home teams in football? Prior to this Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 13, the 49ers will have played a 5-game stretch consisting of the Chiefs, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Packers. Not only are 4 of those 5 teams playoff teams from a season ago, but the 49ers will have just played the Packers at Lambeau Field in a massive revenge spot for Green Bay the week prior to this contest. On the other hand, the Bills will be coming off a much-needed bye week after completing a pivotal 8-game stretch of their schedule.

There’s an argument to be made that the 49ers are overvalued in the market heading into this season, so this number could easily be Bills -2.5 by the time we hit kickoff. Yes, Buffalo can be frustrating in close games against lesser competition, but Josh Allen and company have typically risen to the occasion in these home spots (see: last season vs Miami & Dallas), so it’s hard not to back the Bills as home underdogs in this one.

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