Best ball on Underdog has been around for a few seasons now, and we’ve got some pretty strong supporting data showing that zero RB teams just work over there. We know we need quality WRs who are capable of putting up strong seasons in order to not only advance in the regular season but also advance in the playoffs where the money is so top-heavy in these tournaments. On top of that, running back is arguably the easiest position to replace with later-round options in terms of fantasy points, so we should be heavily allocating our draft picks to this subset of the player pool.
Before we get into our favorite later-round RB targets for 2024, let’s dive into some of that best ball data from Underdog over the last three seasons using Rotoviz’s Underdog Advance Rate Explorer.
The First RB Selected After Round 6
As you can see, teams that have waited to draft their first running back on Underdog until Round 7 or later have done quite well with well above average advance rates both in the regular season and in the playoffs.
The Second RB Selected Before Round 7
Not surprisingly based on our last chart which highlighted how valuable it is to pass on RBs early, teams that have drafted two RBs in the early rounds have not done well, at least relative to baseline expectations. This chart above highlights that teams who have drafted at least two RBs in Rounds 1-6 have had below-average advance rates. But what about a ‘Hero RB’ or an ‘Anchor RB’ strategy?
RB2 Selected After Round 6
Yep, that works! This chart pretty strongly highlights that drafters choosing to invest early and often in RBs have done quite poorly. It is possible to draft one elite RB early and do well on Underdog, but drafting multiple RBs prior to Round 7 was been detrimental to advance rates. Drafting your RB2 after Round 7 has historically been a strong bet.
So, to summarize, the data overwhelmingly agrees that in best ball formats, later-round RBs are crucial to success. With that in mind, we should aggressively be targeting RBs that go in the Round 8 or later range while being mindful of the ones we decide to click in the early rounds.
In this article, which is exclusively part of the Ultimate Draft Kit+, we’ll highlight our favorite later-round RB targets for 2024 and continuously update this article throughout the summer as news breaks and ADPs change. For more best ball content, be sure to subscribe to the DFS & Betting Podcast and check out our 2024 Best Ball Rankings.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Positional ADP: RB28
Overall ADP: 94.0
A fixture of zero RB teams in 2023, we’re going right back to the well with Warren again in 2024. Simply put, Warren was one of the most efficient and effective backs in the NFL last year. Among 69 RBs with 50+ rush attempts, Warren ranked third in yards after contact per attempt, fourth in breakaway rush rate, and second in missed tackles forced per attempt. On top of being one of the league’s most efficient runners, Warren is also a great pass catcher out of the backfield, ranking eighth in yards per route run with a very solid 1.41 mark in that metric.
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