2024 WR ADP Battles: San Francisco 49ers (Fantasy Football)

In this series of articles, I will be looking at some of the more interesting wide receiver rooms around the league heading into the 2024 season, and discussing if the wideouts being drafted highest truly are the best fantasy options at the position on their respective rosters or if any of their teammates with a lower ADP have a shot at being the number one.

We’re kicking things off in the Bay Area, focusing on two of the truly elite receiving talents currently in the NFL, the San Francisco 49ers duo of Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel Sr…let’s go. 

*All ADP data courtesy of Sleeper using a single-QB 0.5 PPR scoring format.

Deebo Samuel Sr. (ADP 3.06 – WR16)  > Brandon Aiyuk (ADP 2.11 – WR13)

New season, new jersey number, new nameplate (kinda)…same old Deebo? After a sensational second half to the season, one that saw Samuel finish as the overall WR2 in Weeks 10-17, countless fantasy managers would have celebrated a #FootClanTitle and the performance of San Fran’s stud wideout by grabbing a shiny new 49ers jersey with that famous #19 emblazoned across the back. If you were one of them, strap in, as I’ve got some good news and some bad news for you. 

Let’s start with the bad – there will be no Samuel 19 taking to the field at Levi’s Stadium this coming season. Never again will we see #19 take a jet sweep to the house in the famous red, white, and gold of the 49ers…sad times. Thankfully for everyone in Santa Clara and the fantasy world, this will only be as a result of a number change for the sixth-year receiver, as he will now adorn #1 alongside an updated moniker of Samuel Sr in honor of his son who was born in 2021…my apologies if I panicked you there.

New threads@19problemz pic.twitter.com/SMq8P8hbOb

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) March 12, 2024

Now, for the good news, and really I should have said great news. Remember how Deebo finished as the overall WR12 last season despite missing three games due to a shoulder injury? You do? Ok good, as clearly a large part of the fantasy community does not, with Deebo currently being drafted as the overall WR16 heading into August – three spots behind teammate Brandon Aiyuk (WR13) at the position, and almost a full round later in ADP. Don’t hear what I’m not saying, this is not an anti-Aiyuk take, far from it…but can we be so sure he will outscore his more versatile teammate to the extent of meriting a late second-round pick?

Let’s start by looking at last season

The similarity in production between the two wideouts is remarkable. Had Aiyuk not fumbled in Week 14 vs. Seattle, both players would have scored exactly 213.7 fantasy points on the season, tying for the overall WR12. All the more impressive when factoring in George Kittle finishing the year as TE5. Christian McCaffrey was the runaway leader at the running back position…the 49ers offense was legit.

San Francisco ranked fourth in total passing yards last season (4,384) and led the league in yards per attempt (9.3), thanks in no small part to Aiyuk’s 1,342 receiving yards (seventh) and outrageous 17.9 YPR (second only to George Pickens). Heading into 2024, the consensus is for Aiyuk to lead the team in all major receiving categories once again, so why should we be so high on Deebo? I’m glad you asked.

Samuel is a YAC master – his 527 yards after the catch ranked ninth among all wideouts on the season, climbing to number one when adjusted to a per-reception basis (8.8.YAC/R). We’ve come to expect this from Deebo with his usage out of the backfield on shorter passes and dump-offs – since entering the league in 2019 he’s ranked first in YAC per reception every season bar one, his rookie season when he finished a lowly second to A.J. Brown. Despite the introduction of Christian McCaffrey to the offense in 2022 and Brock Purdy’s aDOT climbing to a respectable 8.4 YPA in 2023, Samuel’s YAC/R has held steady at 8.8 for two straight seasons – his unique role and involvement in the short yardage passing game won’t be changing anytime soon.

There are two main factors in Deebo having such impressive numbers upon securing the football. Sure usage/opportunity is one, but the overbearing reason Samuel is so good after the catch is because he is a MAN! In 2023 Deebo ranked fifth in yards after contact (2.9 YACON/R) and tied for second on broken tackles (12) at the position with Tyreek Hill. Aiyuk, who played two games more than his high-T teammate, only managed two (T-43rd). Deebo’s physicality allows him to break tackles and add on those hard yards when hauling in passes near or behind the line of scrimmage, as well as creating opportunities for fantasy production in another facet of the offense…the running game.

Deebo Samuel showing off his ability to get open and make plays after the catch.

Samuel was identified as a @PVSportsStats prime target just as Brock Purdy found his receiver open over the middle (7.5 yards of separation).

Watch Prime Vision w/NGS here: https://t.co/1OMRlpl5d4 pic.twitter.com/o1krK14ss9

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 22, 2023

We already know that Samuel is an imposing threat with the ball in his hands, his YAC numbers attest to that, but just how good is he as a rusher when handling the ball out of the backfield? Since his rookie season in 2019, Samuel has totaled 1,007 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground; the next best in that time period – another Samuel, Curtis, with 567 rushing yards and five scores. 

Deebo is untouchable as a rushing receiver, both figuratively and literally – in 2023 no other wideout ran for over 200 yards, and only CeeDee Lamb, Jayden Reed, and Jakobi Meyers had more than a solitary rushing score…Deebo had five. Yes CMC is the alpha of all running backs in the league and will continue to dominate the workload on this backfield, but Samuel has averaged 40 carries a season at 5.8 YPC since McCaffrey rolled into town, finding the end zone eight times in the process. There simply isn’t another receiver in the league who offers what Deebo does through the air and on the ground.

This isn’t an argument against drafting Brandon Aiyuk, but rather a campaign to highlight the incredible current draft-day value of his teammate. Aiyuk could most certainly outperform his ADP of WR13, after all, he finished as the overall WR15 in 2022 and WR14 last year…and if these trends continue…AAAY! But why gamble on one 49er receiver, who has never finished as a WR1, when you can pick up another who has cracked that ceiling in two of the last three years…almost a full round later? 

In two fewer games in 2023, Deebo saw seventeen red zone targets to Aiyuk’s nine, and despite Aiyuk being perceived by many as the “big play” threat over the middle in the 49ers’ aerial attack, Samuel had three more plays of 40+ yards on the year. There is little to no doubt in my mind that Brandon Aiyuk will eclipse 80 receptions in 2024 for at least 1,200 receiving yards, but with the passing touchdown distribution being split so evenly between San Francisco’s big four by Brock Purdy, it’s tough to envisage Aiyuk surpassing his career-high mark of eight TDs set in 2022. Deebo on the other hand should continue to see plenty of scoring opportunities in both the passing and rushing aspects of the 49ers’ offense, giving him a much higher ceiling than any other weapon on the roster not named Christian McCaffrey.

At the time of writing, Brandon Aiyuk is embroiled in a “will he, won’t he” style dispute with the 49ers over a contract extension or a potential trade. It is highly unlikely Aiyuk will be playing anywhere else in 2024, or miss any of the regular season via a hold-out – however, his well-publicized non-participation to begin training camp may have an impact on his, and Deebo’s ADPs come draft day. Keep your fingers crossed that Aiyuk and San Francisco find common ground sooner rather than later to quell any fantasy manager’s concerns, and ensure his ADP remains higher than Deebo’s, allowing you to take the true fantasy WR1 in this offense at a bargain WR2 price.