2024 WR ADP Battles: Green Bay Packers (Fantasy Football)

Welcome to the next entry in this series of articles taking a deeper look at some of the running back and wide receiver rooms around the league that pose more questions than answers as we head into the 2024 season. I’ll be discussing if the players being taken first in fantasy drafts truly are the best options at the position on their respective rosters, or if any of their teammates with a lower ADP have a realistic shot at being the number one.

Last time out we focused on the 49ers, a team with two wide receivers being drafted inside the top 16 at the position. This week, we’re going a little bit further down the draft board as we head to the great Midwest and analyze a wide receiver room with only one guy inside the top 36. Strap on your cheeseheads, we’re off to Lambeau to talk all things Packers.

*All ADP data courtesy of Sleeper using a single-QB, 0.5-PPR scoring format.

View the full ADP Battles series if you’re interested in reading more about teams with high concentrations of fantasy-relevant players!

Christian Watson (ADP 9.05 – WR46) > Jayden Reed (ADP 6.10 – WR34)

They can’t keep getting away with it…well, it turns out they can and have, as once again the Green Bay Packers have casually unearthed a franchise quarterback to replace a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Fresh off a four-year, $220m contract extension that makes him the highest-paid player in the National Football League – Jordan Love, the controversial former first-round draft pick, will look to build on his impressive first full season as the starter in Green Bay, where he went 9-8…a goal shared with fantasy managers following his overall QB5 finish from last year.

Love is currently being drafted as the 10th quarterback off the board (ADP 8.02), a potential bargain given his output in 2023, particularly when you consider the bountiful array of weapons he will have at his disposal entering his fifth season in the green and gold. With a wide receiver room boasting Jayden Reed (WR23 in his rookie year), Romeo Doubs (finished WR or better seven times as a rookie), and Christian Watson (back-to-back WR1 weeks after Thanksgiving), alongside sophomore tight end Luke Musgrave (TE1 finish 40% of starts last year) – the path for Love to once again be a top-five QB is relatively clear. If the former Utah State product can emulate his 2023 stat line of 32 passing touchdowns and over 4,100 yards, then at least one of his main weapons will significantly outperform their current ADP come the end of the season…and with the sincerest of apologies to Andy Holloway after his pick on this year’s Ice and Fire episode, my money is going on that weapon being Christian Watson.

As we can see from the above ADP data, the fantasy community is largely unsure of what to do with the Packers’ pass-catchers heading into August. Despite being a top-15 passing offense in 2023, and retaining key personnel in the offensive line, not a single wideout on this roster has come close to cracking the WR2 ceiling as we approach draft season. Although there is a significant air of optimism surrounding Jordan Love and his receivers, fantasy managers are right to be cautious when declaring an alpha in this wideout group, for no other reason than we have seen very little of this Green Bay aerial offense on the field together at the same time and fully healthy.

Jayden Reed truthers will be quick to point out that the rookie pass-catcher finished as a WR2 or better seven times on the year, however, it cannot be overlooked that five of those performances came in weeks where Christian Watson was missing through injury. In Green Bay’s nine wins last season, Reed and Watson were only on the field together for four of them, and in two of those, Watson finished as a WR1. In wins with Watson on the field, Reed ranked as the WR47, WR11, WR25, and WR52…when this team wins, it is Christian Watson who is the main beneficiary in the passing game, not the former Michigan State man. With the Packers projected win total for 2024 currently sitting at a healthy 9.5, it reasons that Watson should once again have a number of opportunities to outperform his compatriot in games where Green Bay is favored.

If you’ve purchased the Ultimate Draft Kit and checked out Jayden Reed’s player profile (and if you haven’t, why not?), you’ll see there are fears at Ballers HQ that the Packers hierarchy may view Reed primarily as a slot receiver – potentially putting a significant limitation on his upside for the year ahead. Despite posting a relatively healthy 5.2 YAC/R, Reed’s 12.4 total yards per reception on the season was only good enough to finish 47th at the position. In contrast, Watson’s 15.1 YPR was T-19th alongside superstars Tyreek Hill and Tank Dell, highlighting that when targeted (and actually able to haul in the rock), the Packers’ #9 was in the relative elite, far outperforming his current draft position of WR46. I briefly mentioned Watson actually being able to catch the football…unfortunately for my fellow Watson truthers, this is part of the article that I have to come clean and peel back the very shiny curtain I’ve made for our champion, and behind that curtain is a flaming hot dumpster fire with the words Catch Percentage spray-painted across the side.

Watson’s catch rate of 53% was bad…historically bad. There were a combined 115 wide receivers and tight ends who earned 45 or more looks in the 2023 season – of those, our man Christian ranked 109th…woof. Coming out of the bye week, something just looked off, and while it would be easy to pin the blame on injuries (and there were plenty) – it cannot be overlooked that in the four-game stretch between Weeks 7-10, Watson hauled in only 9/22 targets (41%), and ranked as the WR73 in that period. Lest we forget, this was a guy, who as a rookie, managed a respectable league average 62% catch rate from an Aaron Rodgers who was very much on the decline. Statting out his 17-game pace with that catch rate isn’t pretty, but even with the historically low percentage, Watson was on track to finish as the overall WR34, well ahead of his current ADP for the season ahead. I may be sticking my neck out slightly, and it could be time for some Mike Wright inspired titanium underpants, but I don’t see a scenario where Watson doesn’t positively regress to at least a 60% catch rate in 2024 – a mark that if had he hit last year, would have seen him finish around WR27…ahead of Jayden Reed.

I’ve mentioned Jayden Reed’s impressive YAC/R of 5.2 yards, placing him firmly in the top 20 at the position. Despite Christian Watson not being quite as productive as his teammate after the catch (3.8 YAC/R), his aDOT of 15.42 yards being a full 5.1 yards ahead of Reed across the course of the season more than makes up for this moving forward. With Reed likely to work predominantly out of the slot now that the Packers have a fully fit receiver corps, it’s not unrealistic to predict his aDOT will take a further hit entering his sophomore year. I envisage Reed’s average depth of target most likely resembling Keenan Allen (9.64 YDS) or Chris Godwin (9.01 YDS) in his second year, creating a further disparity with Watson, who will undoubtedly take up a larger role on the outside and retain a relatively stable depth of target over the course of the season.

Reed and Watson were the only two wideouts on the roster to have a single play over 40 yards in 2023 at four-a-piece…with Watson playing seven fewer games. Jordan Love may not possess the big arm strength of Justin Herbert or Josh Allen, but he can sling it, and when he does, it will be Christian Watson on the end of those deep shots more often than not.

Jordan Love rolls out and finds a wide open Christian Watson for 77 yards!

: #GBvsLV on ESPN/ABC
: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/ZjjXbjW0ad pic.twitter.com/Y1FrjP2d6x

— NFL (@NFL) October 10, 2023

“Your best ability is availability, and if you’re not on the field, they can’t use you.” Who would have had George Kittle down as not only an elite tight end but also a modern-day philosopher? Jokes aside, the ability to stay healthy is one that simply can’t be taught, and after missing a third of all available games in his first two years with hamstring problems, fantasy managers are well within their rights to be sticking those red flags beside Christian Watson’s name on their cheat sheets. Since being drafted in the second round in 2022, Watson has had no fewer than four separate spells on the sidelines due to hamstring issues, the same injury which caused him to sit out the first three games of 2023, and miss the last five. Watson has a risk factor of 7.2 in this year’s UDK – the only two wideouts with a higher rating…the soon-to-be suspended Rashee Rice, and “Quge” a.k.a. Quentin Johnston. That’s not an esteemed company to be in. Yes, Watson and his paper hamstrings may turn out to be a huge bust, forcing him to sit and watch as Jordan Love and Jayden Reed become the latest QB/WR combo to join the Breakfast Club…but this is a guy who between Weeks 11-13 last year was the overall WR8, averaging 14.7 FPPG in that stretch, and he’s going in the middle of the ninth round. Will Reed finish the season as the WR1 on this team, quite possibly…is there a legitimate chance that Christian Watson is finally healthy and leads all Green Bay receivers in fantasy, most definitely.