The 2024 WNBA Finals odds are set as the matchup is finalized. The top two teams in the league face off as the New York Liberty take on the Minnesota Lynx, starting on Thursday, October 10!
I’ll take a look at the various betting markets, such as Finals MVP, some props, and of course, the winner odds. I’ll give you my WNBA Finals predictions and best bets at the end of this article.
WNBA 2024 Finals Series Betting Odds
You can find several WNBA betting markets for the Finals. I’ll dig into the winner odds, as well as MVP, Game 1/Series doubles, and the correct score of the series.
WNBA Championship 2024 Winner Odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| New York Liberty | -310 |
| Minnesota Lynx | +225 |
Despite the Minnesota Lynx finishing just two games behind the New York Liberty in the regular-season standings, and the Lynx have a 3-1 record against New York this season, the Liberty are considerable favorites at Bovada.
The Liberty (-310) are a known entity, as they lost to the Las Vegas Aces in last year’s Finals. They also have Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, both Olympians and major names in the WNBA. Their WNBA Finals odds give the Liberty an implied probability of 75.6% to win!
But the Lynx (+225) are a tough team, and Nepheesa Collier has been the second-best player in the league behind MVP A’ja Wilson of the Aces. Minnesota has an implied chance of 30.8% to win the franchise’s fifth title, which would give them the record!
This is a great price if you think Minnesota can win this series, which they can.
WNBA Finals 2024 MVP Odds
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | +110 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | +200 |
| Napheesa Collier | +250 |
| Jonquel Jones | +3500 |
| Kayla McBride | +6000 |
| Courtney Williams | +8000 |
| Betnijah Laney-Hamilton | +12500 |
| Leonie Fiebich | +12500 |
The Liberty also leads the WNBA Finals MVP odds at Bovada, as Stewart (+110) is the favorite, followed by Ionescu (+200). Collier (+250) isn’t far behind, then there is a steep drop-off to New York’s Jonquel Jones (+3500).
The MVP is, most likely, going to come from the trio of Stewart, Ionescu, and Collier, as those three will have the biggest impact on the games. But that’s not to say they won’t need help from the role players on their respective teams.
It is possible, as Las Vegas’ Chelsea Gray won the Finals MVP in 2022, and you could have found her at outlandish WNBA betting odds of +10000! However, Gray was simply spectacular, averaging 21.7 points and 7.0 assists as the Aces defeated Connecticut in the Finals series.
However, I’m steadfast in my belief that either Stewart, Ionescu, or Collier will win the WNBA Finals MVP award this season! Stewart has averaged 20.0 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and she played some great defense as the Liberty avenged their Finals loss to the Aces. Ionescu is New York’s engine, averaging 20.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. She’s also hit 46.5% of her three-point attempts.
Collier is putting up massive numbers in the postseason, averaging 27.1 points and 9.6 boards, along with 2.0 blocks. The former UConn star (Collier and Stewart were teammates for one year at UConn) became the first player to get at least 25 points and 10 boards in three consecutive playoff games.
More WNBA Finals Betting Odds
Bovada has a host of WNBA Finals betting odds and markets, and I’m going to examine the Game 1/Series double, and the correct score of the finals.
You can find these markets and the rest at Bovada, by navigating to Sports > Basketball > WNBA Series Prices.
Game 1 and Series Doubles
| OUTCOME | ODDS |
|---|---|
| New York Liberty/New York Liberty | -160 |
| Minnesota Lynx/Minnesota Lynx | +425 |
| Minnesota Lynx/New York Liberty | +500 |
| New York Liberty/Minnesota Lynx | +500 |
The first market I’ll consider is the Game 1 series double. The Liberty are favored at home at -260 on the moneyline to win Game 1, and -6.0 on the spread. New York was 16-4 overall at home this season, and 4-0 in the playoffs. One of those regular-season losses at home came against the Lynx, who won 88-79 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn on September 15. Stewart had a massive game with 38 points and 18 rebounds, but Ionescu had a bad game, going 4-of-21 from the field, and 2-of-12 from three-point land.
Minnesota is 1-1 in their two road games so far this season, and they were 14-6 away from home in the regular season. This is a close, tight-knit team that also beat the Liberty 94-89 in the Commissioner’s Cup final on June 25. The Liberty were the home team, even though the game was moved from Brooklyn to the UBS Arena in Elmont, New York, because the NBA Draft was being held there.
New York will remember that, and the other two losses to the Lynx this season, and look to avenge those as they did the Finals loss to Las Vegas.
Series Correct Score
| OUTCOME | ODDS |
|---|---|
| New York Liberty 3-0 | +250 |
| New York Liberty 3-1 | +300 |
| New York Liberty 3-2 | +290 |
| Minnesota Lynx 3-0 | +1400 |
| Minnesota Lynx 3-1 | +550 |
| Minnesota Lynx 3-2 | +550 |
A Lynx sweep has the largest odds at +1400, while a Liberty sweep is a bit overvalued at +250. Both teams will win at least one game in this series, as they match up extremely well against each other.
With the Liberty being favored to win the series overall, it’s not surprising that the odds in this market are skewed towards New York. But that means there is definitely value in betting the Lynx.
Minnesota Lynx: Can the Underdog Upset the Odds?
The Lynx, which has won four titles as a franchise, know who they are. They are powered by Collier, who also won the Defensive Player of the Year award and was second to Wilson in MVP voting. But the Lynx are more successful when their role players get involved.
Courtney Williams has averaged 13.7 points and 5.7 assists, while Kayla McBride has added 13.6 points and 4.1 assists. Bridget Carleton is averaging 10.0 points, although she is struggling with her long-range shooting. Alanna Smith is huge in the post, blocking 2.3 shots per game. The Lynx have also faced a tough time, as they needed five games to beat Connecticut.
Minnesota was second in the league during the regular season, allowing 75.6 points per game. That has gone up to 82.3 points in the postseason against Phoenix and Connecticut. If they get away from their defensive principles, the Lynx could get in trouble.
The onus is on head coach Cheryl Reeve to keep them focused, but she knows what she’s doing. Reeve is a four-time WNBA champion with the Lynx, and she’s won Coach of the Year four times as well. She was also the head coach of the United States team that won gold this summer in Paris.
New York Liberty: Can the Favorite Soak the Pressure?
The Liberty would love to win the franchise’s first WNBA title, as they’re 0-5 in the Finals. Stewart was their leader in the regular season, but Ionescu has stepped up over the playoffs, becoming the team’s emotional leader. When she’s hitting her three-point shots, and jumping passing lanes on defense, Ionescu sparks the crowd, which is fine for Stewart, who is more of a quiet type.
Jonquel Jones won the WNBA MVP award in 2021, and is a five-time All-Star, but she has taken on a secondary role behind Stewart and Ionescu. A native of the Bahamas, Jones is averaging 13.5 points and 8.7 rebounds, while shooting 46.7% from three-point land. She has worked hard to become a good long-range shooter, which creates space for everyone. Leonie Fiebich is a three-point assassin, hitting 59.1% of her attempts, while Courtney Vandersloot and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton chip in with valuable minutes.
New York was third in the regular season in points allowed at 76.5, and they lead the postseason at 78.2 points allowed. The Liberty were locked in defensively against the Aces. They’ll need more of the same against Collier and the Lynx. Head coach Sandy Brondello won the 2014 WNBA title with Phoenix, so she knows what it takes. Brondello also coached her native Australia to a bronze medal at the Olympics this summer.
2024 WNBA Finals Predictions and Best Bets
Now that I’ve analyzed these markets, it’s time to make some 2024 WNBA Finals predictions!
WNBA Finals Winner Predictions and Betting Pick
I’m going with the Liberty to finally win their first franchise title. New York largely has the team that lost to Las Vegas in last year’s Finals, and added Fiebich from Germany. None of Minnesota’s core players have won in the Finals, and only Williams has been to one, in 2019 with Connecticut.
The Liberty will be hungry, and that hunger, along with their experience will propel them to the WNBA title!
WNBA Finals MVP Prediction and Betting Pick
With my WNBA Finals prediction being the Liberty, I’ll take Sabrina Ionescu at +200 to win Finals MVP. If she continues to play as she has been, Ionescu’s odds hold more value than Stewart. I think Ionescu should be favored, but I’ll take the value!
More WNBA Finals Predictions
For the WNBA betting props I examined, I’ll take the Game 1/Series double of New York Liberty/New York Liberty at -160. The Barclays crowd will be pumped up for Thursday’s Game 1, and that’ll carry the Liberty to a win. Of course, I also have New York winning the series.
As for the correct series score, I’m going with the New York Liberty 3-1 at +300. Minnesota is too good to get swept. I’ll think the Liberty take the first two at home, then Minnesota fights back for a Game 3 win before New York clinches it on the road as they did in Las Vegas.
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