2024 Rookie Profile: WR Adonai Mitchell (Fantasy Football)

The 2024 NFL Draft class features a notably deep pool of wide receivers, extending from top-tier talents to a distinct and crowded following tier that is particularly challenging to navigate. Within this tier, numerous players showcase impressive skills, traits, and potential, yet are accompanied by discernible weaknesses and red flags hindering their ascent to the upper echelons of prospects. In this array of talents, one tantalizing standout is Adonai Mitchell, the lanky wide receiver from the University of Texas.

With imposing size and intriguing athletic attributes, Mitchell embodies the kind of player that sparks anticipation and excitement heading into draft season. While acknowledging his evident potential and strengths, it is equally crucial to identify and scrutinize the red flags that might impede Mitchell from reaching superstardom at the next level.

Editor’s Note: This article is part of our Rookie Profile series going on until the 2024 NFL Draft. For more on each rookie, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and the production profiles found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2024.

College Production Profile

Mitchell was initially a three-star recruit prior to joining the Georgia Bulldogs, contributing to two national championship victories. As a true freshman in 2021, he quickly earned a role with the team, tallying 29 receptions for 426 yards and four touchdowns. He sustained his momentum into the 2022 season, emerging as a significant touchdown threat; however, his progress was halted by a high ankle sprain, cutting his season short. He concluded the 2022 season with just nine receptions totaling 134 yards. Nonetheless, he remarkably scored three touchdowns on this limited number of catches (33.3% TD reception rate).

In pursuit of more opportunities, Mitchell made the strategic move to head west, transferring to the University of Texas before the 2023 season. In his 14-game tenure with the Longhorns, he experienced his most productive collegiate season, securing 55 receptions for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns. Despite his impressive performance, Mitchell often played second fiddle to teammate Xavier Worthy. Mitchell concluded the 2023 season with 33 fewer targets, 20 fewer receptions, and 169 fewer receiving yards than his talented teammate.

2023 Season Metrics:

• Average Depth of Target (aDOT): 16.0
• Drop Percentage: 1.8%
• Yards per Route Run: 1.72
• Target Rate vs. Zone: 15.2%
• Yards per Route Run vs. Zone: 1.75
• Target Rate vs. Man: 17.2%
• Yards per Route vs. Man: 1.08
• Yards Per Team Pass Attempt: 1.78
• Targets Per Route Run: 18.5%
• Contested Catch Rate: 36.4%
• Yards per Reception Average: 15.4

Measurables

*Note: this article will be updated once we get official NFL Combine testing data in early March. 

Standing at an imposing 6’4″ and 196 lbs, Mitchell meets the desired size threshold for a true X wide receiver. He effectively leverages and utilizes his height and lengthy arms, particularly noticeable at the catch point where he employs his elongated frame to shield the ball from defenders. With that said, there is room for improvement as he could benefit from adding some muscle mass to avoid being overpowered at the professional level. He also unfortunately boasts one of the more undesirable breakout ages among the top wide receiver prospects in this year’s class at 21.9.

What’s on Tape

Games Viewed: BYU (2023), Alabama (2023), TCU (2023), Ohio State (2022)

1. Strong Hands

Mitchell recorded just one drop on 86 targets in 2023 (1.8%), showcasing one of the lowest drop percentages among relevant prospects in his class. Despite this commendable stat, it is worth noting that Mitchell frequently relies on body catches, a technique that is generally considered undesirable. 

2. Vertical Threat/Ball Tracking Ability

Coupled with his reliable hands and physical running style, Mitchell inherently possesses the skill to be a vertical threat, thriving with a quarterback unafraid to unleash deep passes and let it fly. However, without added muscle, there is concern that he might face challenges against professional-level defenders who could exploit his physical limitations. Notably, he showcased an exceptional aDOT (16) in 2023, with only Jermaine Burton (20.2), Devontez Walker (18.2), and Javon Baker (17.1) among relevant wide receivers in this class boasting higher averages.

3. Smooth Runner

Despite occasional inconsistency in route effort, Mitchell exhibits remarkable smoothness in his running style. He gracefully glides downfield, akin to a gazelle, employing long, fluid strides. With loose hips and decent agility relative to his size, he compensates for not being the fastest vertical threat in the class. While he possesses desirable long speed, his notable height and long arms contribute to his effectiveness. However, despite his impressive speed for his height, there are instances where his footwork may appear sluggish on certain routes.

4. Clutch Performer

Mitchell demonstrated a remarkable clutch gene by scoring touchdowns in all five playoff games throughout his collegiate career. Notably, he showcased his skills against Alabama in 2023, where he faced off against potential first-round cornerback prospect Kool-Aid McKinstrey. In that game, Mitchell delivered an impressive performance, tallying three receptions for 78 yards and two touchdowns. He also seemed to have a knack for showing up when his team needed him most late in games. Two years ago, he secured a 40-yard, go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter of the College Football Playoff (CFP) national championship game against Alabama. In the previous season, he sealed the victory with a touchdown against Ohio State in the CFP semifinal. Just over a month ago, he executed a fade pass for a score, bringing Texas within reach of the Washington Huskies midway through the fourth quarter of the CFP semifinal.

What’s Not on Tape

1. Yards After Catch

Locating instances in Mitchell’s tape where he gains yards after initial contact proves to be a challenging task. It appears he either found ample space after securing a deep ball or succumbed to the first contact. Notably, he recorded an alarmingly low yards per route run average of 1.72 in 2023, a performance deemed subpar in the NFL and particularly questionable against Big 12 competition. To provide context, two standout prospects in this class, Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr., both doubled his average, underscoring the disparity in their effectiveness.

2. Ability to Win vs. Zone

Despite his performance against man coverage not shining by any means, Mitchell’s metrics take a noticeable dip when confronted with zone coverage in 2023. Despite running 270 routes against zone coverage, placing him near the top of the class, he saw targets on only 15.2% of these routes. Furthermore, his yards per route run against zone coverage averaged a meager 1.75, ranking him at the very bottom of the class. This discrepancy strongly suggests potential challenges for him at the next level.

3. Run Blocking Ability

While demonstrating an eagerness to block at times, Mitchell often struggles to secure his position and gets overpowered, primarily due to his weight. While he somewhat compensates with physicality, the extent to which this will translate to the next level remains uncertain. Nonetheless, he does not avoid contact and can showcase commendable physicality when the situation demands. There exists significant potential for improvement in this facet of his game, particularly through more consistent effort.

4. Consistency

One of the primary concerns I have regarding Mitchell as a prospect stems from his inconsistency across multiple facets of his game. In several games, he appeared to lose interest, resulting in a noticeable lack of necessary effort. Nowhere is this more apparent than in his route running, where he frequently exhibited a tendency towards laziness and sloppiness when things were not going his way.

Fantasy Outlook

When evaluating Mitchell’s potential to overcome the red flags in his profile, my outlook for his dynasty and 2024 fantasy performance is rather pessimistic. If drafted by a struggling team that aims to rely on him as their primary target, I anticipate he would face significant challenges in this role. On the other hand, joining a team with a reliable quarterback with established receiving options could offer a more favorable path to success. In such a scenario, he might become a boom-or-bust option in fantasy lineups, primarily dependent on connecting for deep touchdowns. This prediction is supported by the fact that Mitchell only averaged 3.93 receptions per game in 2023 while maintaining an average of just over 60 yards per game. His reliance on splash plays with limited volume could still warrant flex appeal in the right matchups. Acknowledging this, the challenge lies in establishing himself as a true outlier, as most players heavily reliant on deep-ball receptions find it difficult to sustain consistent relevance as fantasy contributors.

While envisioning Mitchell’s potential success, it is important to consider an alternate path. Distinguishing between “can’t do” and “didn’t do” in collegiate production and trends is key. Despite his college production being predominantly from the outside and away from the line of scrimmage, there is a possibility that he possesses the capacity to line up elsewhere and execute a more diverse range of routes. There is a chance that a coach or team might identify untapped abilities in him, allowing him to evolve into a more multifaceted and nuanced player. However, out of 511 total snaps in 2023, Mitchell operated from the slot on only 94 occasions, spending the majority (417 snaps) lined up out wide. It seems more likely that this will be his utilization at the next level. Yet, when analyzing and considering prospects with the potential for growth, it is worth acknowledging the possibility of them becoming something greater than their current role suggests.

Added muscle mass could elevate Mitchell into an end zone threat at the next level given his height and athleticism. However, he seems more of a project than an immediate contributor. Although his physical attributes warrant consideration in the first round of rookie drafts, my preference leans toward selecting him in the second round. The critical factors influencing his early success at the next level will be his landing spot and draft capital. Current projections place him in the late-first to early-second round in most NFL mock drafts. Even in an ideal draft scenario such as the Buffalo Bills or Kansas City Chiefs, I harbor doubts about his potential to evolve into a consistently reliable fantasy asset. Ultimately, Mitchell is likely to offer more value to an NFL team than to your fantasy roster.