2024 Rookie Profile: RB Braelon Allen (Fantasy Football)

The 2024 NFL Draft could have as many as six quarterbacks selected in the first round. As mentioned in my Rookie Profile of Brian Thomas Jr., nine wide receivers could be off the board within the first 40 picks. The biggest hole in this class, at least from a skill position perspective, is the running back position. According to NFL Mock Draft Database, no running back shows up until number 60 on the consensus big board of incoming rookies as of this writing.

While it is likely that a running back will not be drafted in the first round, there are a handful that will go off the board in rounds two and three. Braelon Allen is in the mix to get day two draft capital. The phenom out of Wisconsin will be the youngest skill position player drafted in 2024 and has arguably the highest ceiling of this running back class. Let’s dive into his production, measurables, and film to see what we might expect from Allen in future fantasy seasons.

Editor’s Note: This article is part of our Rookie Profile series going on until the 2024 NFL Draft. For more on each rookie, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and the production profiles found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2024.

College Production Profile

Allen was initially set to join Wisconsin’s 2022 recruiting class, but when he started to hang clean 405 pounds as a 16-year-old, it was evident that he was physically ready to play at the next level. He reclassified and joined the Badgers in the fall of 2021 at just 17 years old.

He played sparingly in the first four games of his college career but burst onto the scene with 131 yards and a touchdown in his fifth game which was against Illinois. He never looked back, averaging 135 yards per game and 7.0 yards per carry over the final nine games of his freshman campaign before turning 18. He followed it up with a career-high 230 carries for 1,242 rushing yards as a sophomore.

During Allen’s first two seasons, Wisconsin ran an offensive system that featured the quarterback under center and frequently included multiple fullbacks and tight ends in the formation. That completely changed in his junior season when the Badgers brought in Head Coach Luke Fickell and Offensive Coordinator Phil Longo. They installed their version of the air raid, coined the “Dairy Raid” offense, which almost exclusively featured shotgun formations with three or more wide receivers on the field. Wisconsin transformed from a run-heavy team to a pass-first team under the new regime, as shown in the table below.

The change led to Allen seeing the fewest carries of his college career, though he still averaged 5.4 yards per carry and found the end zone 12 times. He also caught a career-high 28 passes.

Measurables

Allen isn’t quite Derrick Henry, but he’s bigger than most running backs currently in the NFL. In fact, at 235 pounds, he’s the heaviest running back in this draft class. Unfortunately, he chose not to run the 40-yard dash at the combine, then passed on it again at Wisconsin’s Pro Day on March 15. He reasoned that an ankle injury didn’t give him enough time to train the way he wanted and that his tape would do the talking for him.

No I am 100%, but the time frame to properly train for the 40 and shuttles was too small of a window for me to perform the way I would have wanted to, due to my ankle injury. Sorry to all the 40 yard dash warriors but we’ll let the tape talk. https://t.co/vdUNQD181n

— Braelon Allen (@BraelonAllen) March 16, 2024

What’s on Tape

Games Viewed: Northwestern (2021), Nebraska (2021), Ohio State (2022), Buffalo (2023), Illinois (2023), Ohio State (2023), Purdue (2023)

1. Can Deliver a Blow

Given his size and strength, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Allen can truck a defender with the best of them. It often takes more than one tackler to bring him down and he’s far more likely to lower his shoulder to finish a run than step out of bounds. Of Allen’s 3,207 rushing yards over three seasons at Wisconsin, 2,022 came after contact.

2. Tremendous Feet for His Size

Allen can get by on more than just pure power. He may not be the most nimble back in the class, but he’s impressively light on his feet. He can make jump cuts to open lanes or juke a defender in space. His quick feet are on display in the clip below.

3. Checkdowns, Dump-offs, and Swings

Allen got minimal work through the air in his first two seasons, totaling just 17 receptions on 26 targets. Those numbers increased significantly to 28 receptions on 30 targets in his final season. Those aren’t elite pass-catching numbers for a running back, but they confirm he’s capable enough. The majority of those receptions, however, came on checkdowns, dump-offs, or the occasional swing pass. He rarely ever ran a downfield route. He is a natural pass catcher with good hands, but that won’t likely be where he racks up fantasy points in the NFL.

What’s Not on Tape

1. Breakaway Speed

He isn’t slow, but Allen isn’t running away from the fastest DBs. It’s tough to put any measurable value on his speed without having a 40-time or speed score to refer to. The best we can do is watch the film, where he does occasionally get run down from behind. You can see an example of that in the clip below. He breaks away after demolishing a safety but doesn’t have the speed to take it to the house.

2. Big Games Against Top Competition

Playing in the Big Ten, Michigan and Ohio State are some of the best competition in the country. Allen hadn’t yet found the field when the Badgers took on the Wolverines in his freshman season, where he carried the ball just five times for 19 yards. In two games against the Buckeyes, Allen put up 215 yards on 33 carries. That seems great until you consider the 75-yard touchdown run in garbage time while getting blown out in 2022. There weren’t many opportunities, but Allen never put up big numbers against the best of the best.

Fantasy Outlook

To forecast Allen’s fantasy outlook in the NFL, let’s consider his age and potential draft capital, two valuable data points that Marvin Elequin dives into in his Dynasy Lifecycle of Running Backs article. In that article, you’ll find the chart below, which shows running back breakouts by age.

Allen will play his entire rookie season at 20 years old, an age that has never seen a breakout running back season over the span of Marvin’s study. That may seem like a bad sign, but not so fast. There is only one running back in NFL history to even carry the ball at 20 years old.

How wild is it that Braelon Allen will play his entire rookie season at 20 years old?

The only player to ever carry the ball in an NFL game at 20 years old is Andy Livingston (2 att, -3 yards) in 1964 for the Bears.

We have essentially no data for a 20-year-old RB in the NFL pic.twitter.com/cbOytwL4E6

— Aaron Larson (@aalarson) March 27, 2024

There are simply no comparables to Allen when it comes to age.

As for draft capital, we can be pretty certain that Allen won’t go in the first round, That dings him a bit, but as long as he goes on day two (rounds two and three), he’ll have hope for fantasy. Per Marvin’s study, day-two running backs have a hit rate of 43.1%. Another thing to monitor will be how many running backs go ahead of Allen in this relatively weak draft class at the position. If he falls to day three, it will be far less likely for Allen to have fantasy relevance.

Of course, his landing spot will be a vital piece of information as well. Volume and opportunity are king for fantasy running backs. If he’s drafted to a team devoid of a proven NFL lead back, like the Cowboys, Chargers, or Raiders, Allen could be in for a big workload as a rookie. That would lead to immediate fantasy value. Conversely, landing in a backup role or as part of a committee would mean it could take longer for Allen to break out, if ever. 

Ultimately, Allen has the physical tools to be a lead back in the NFL, and that role is gold for fantasy football. The league will tell us how they truly value him in the draft. If he’s selected in the second round to a running back needy team, he could get steamed up to the RB1 in fantasy rookie drafts. That would give him the potential to be worth a late first-round pick. If it doesn’t go well for him on draft day, he could fall out of the top five RBs in the class.