2024 Rookie Profile: QB Jayden Daniels (Fantasy Football)

On the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast, we detailed the 2024 QB class giving some quick thoughts on Jayden Daniels but let’s be honest, I needed more space to stretch my legs and give a full discussion on the LSU wonder.

Daniels’ ascension from being OFF people’s draft boards to a consensus top-3 pick is unprecedented…  (Whispers: Actually, the NFL does this all the time with QBs like Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Mitch Trubisky, Blake Bortles) but I’m not here to use those QBs as any type of template.

What makes Daniels different for fantasy purposes and what can we glean from his film is an ongoing process and I hope to give you more clarity on who he could be as a prospect.

Let’s look at his college production, analyze his measurables, and find out what is on his film (or not his film) to hopefully gain a well-rounded, measured perspective on a player likely selected in the top-5 of the NFL Draft.

Editors Note: This article is part of our Rookie Profile series going on until the 2024 NFL Draft. For more on each rookie, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and production profiles found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2024.

College Production Profile

2023 was an all-timer as his 13.6 adjusted yards per attempt tied the all-time NCAA record. Beyond just the eye-popping 40 passing TDs, it was how the TDs were completed as 22 of them went for 20+ air yards and his 146.8 QB rating on 20+ air yard throws was video game numbers type stuff. It’s the best deep ball season of any college QB apart from fellow LSU alum Joe Burrow‘s Heisman-winning season. His rushing production is historic and puts him in rarified air among potential 1st round QBs.

Every 1st round QB since 1995 who surpassed 18+ % of their team’s rushing yardage (best % season). pic.twitter.com/A8QCHrEdIA

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) February 5, 2024

Before we lock only on 2023, how do we explain away his Arizona State days? As the first-ever starting true freshman QB in program history, Daniels showcased some of the deep ball skills we saw on display at LSU on a Sun Devils team that featured future NFLers Eno Benjamin, Frank Darby, Tommy Hudson, and 49ers star Brandon Aiyuk. He technically broke out (per our QBR metrics) and his dual-threat ability was on display including some big-time performances against No. 6 ranked Oregon in late November and a Sun Bowl win over Florida State… and then 2020 happened. Arizona State played just four games in a wasted COVID season. In 2021, ASU came under scrutiny for recruiting violations highlighted by Daniels’ mother helping book some plane tickers for incoming recruits. This was before NIL days so, at the time, Arizona State faced a ton of backlash as Daniels (and others) entered the transfer portal. Do we count that against him in a day and age where transferring is the norm? Certainly not. Is his age concerning?

Measurables

Let’s discuss Jayden Daniels’ production in the context of his physical attributes and age.

His build is unique when compared to recent 1st round-graded prospects in the NFL. While typecasting QBs based on simple height/weight combinations is not exactly beneficial in the process, it is worth noting the “tall and slender” frame has never really included someone with his rushing prowess. Going back to 2000, the highest college rushing yardage for a 1st round QB measuring at 6’3″ or taller and under 220 lbs. is Alex Smith but Daniels should not be comped to the former No. 1 overall pick. Daniels is a unicorn when we mix his production, height/weight, and age. His breakout age (18.7) sounds terrific except that at 23.2, he finds himself in the 20th percentile of QBs drafted in 1st round in 2000.

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Is age a major red flag for fantasy?  Once again, we have to take a collective approach knowing his rushing ability makes him a far different prospect than the majority of pocket passers on that list above. He came into college as the #1 dual-threat QB of his class and chose Arizona State over other big-time schools such as Ohio State, LSU, Penn State, and Florida. It is not ideal but when we mix in a shortened year for COVID (2020) and a transfer to LSU, his timeline at least makes sense.

What’s On Tape

Ok, enough talk about his raw numbers and physical stature. What do we see on the actual football field from Daniels?

My method for watching film is simple: get out a pen and pad of paper. Watch every single drive, view each pass attempt take note of the down and distance, and simply write down what I see. For a QB, I focus on accuracy, aDOT (specifically intermediate area throws), footwork, locating 2nd reads, and how they stand in the pocket under pressure. For Daniels, I took eight of his highest-profile games including two games from 2022 and some monster rushing performances in the SEC.

Games Viewed: Texas A&M (2022), Georgia (2022), Florida State (2023), Mississippi (2023), Missouri (2023), Auburn (2023), Alabama (2023), Florida (2023)

1. The Downfield* Passing Was Unfathomably Great

I’ll explain the asterisk* in a second because there needs to be a caveat explained in his passing profile. When Daniels had time in the pocket, the ball placement and accuracy were unparalleled in college football in 2023. He ranked #1 in catchable target rate without pressure among this year’s draft prospects and the film didn’t lie backing up this claim. While being blessed with the best WRs in the country, Daniels routinely was able to throw it in the breadbasket of Brian Thomas Jr. in this game against Florida.

20+ Yard throws are what the highlight reels will show over and over again but as I’ve mentioned numerous times, the #1 area of the field I judge a QB by is what he does in the intermediate area of the field: 11-19 yards. This is what I loved last year in C.J. Stroud’s Rookie Profile and what certainly translated to the NFL level. Daniels trusts his arm for deep throws but whether it be scheme fit (or Malik Nabers insane ability to take a 5-yard out and turn upfield), the LSU passing game was not predicated on repeatedly attacking this area of the field. You might be asking yourself, “I mean if the dude can throw it 30+ yards downfield, why are you bringing up the 11-19 area?” Well Buster (is it ok if I call you Buster?), this is the NFL where zone coverages occur 70% of the time and Cover 3 looks are the norm.

That intermediate area of the field is what moves the chains and where young QBs struggle the most. I didn’t see a ton of throws between the numbers or in-breaking routes apart from Nabers creating after the catch. He has the size and arm strength but he needs the trust of a coaching staff and opportunities on 3rd and long in this area of the field.

2. His Scramble Rate was Unsustainably High

Let me wordsmith what I just said because it can come across as a bit demeaning to a player who just ran for 1,134 yards and took home a Heisman. Daniels’ fleet feet are apparent from the get-go and as I’ll detail at the end of the evaluation, we know any rushing QB changes how we approach the position in fantasy. His running style is more sudden than incredibly electric and the easiest way to explain that is how he ran. Designed runs and scrambles (non-designed runs) are very different in their effectiveness in the NFL and how NFL defenses can actually respond.  Against Alabama, he got a bit too comfortable picking up huge gains on the ground and paid for it a number of times including one up the gut where two interior defensive linemen rocked his world. (Side note: Malik Nabers was unbelievable in that game picking up crucial 1st downs). Daniels went bonkers in the Florida game with an eye-popping 234 rushing yards but some of the angles from these linebackers made it feel like it was 534 rushing yards. The lack of tackling and discipline defending a QB who is more slight than freakish was downright awful. Daniels can hit the long one but those are not the type of runs I count as a regular occurrence at the next level. Is it an incredible bonus? Sure, but his rushing ability needs some context.

As Nate Tice explained, Daniels’ total number of scrambles (258 since 2019) towers above anyone else in the NCAA over that timeframe. Over the last two seasons at LSU, Daniels averaged 4.8 scrambles per game per PFF. He posted the highest scramble rate (31.7%) of any college QB in their final season with 250+ dropbacks over the last decade. To put those numbers in perspective, I thought comparing Daniels to the league’s premier rushing QB (maybe of all-time) might give us something to look at.

While unscripted rushing plays for QBs can be gold for fantasy purposes, young QBs often default to running rather than staying in the pocket against NFL pass rushes. I’m not here to complain about Daniels taking off to run. However, it is a point of caution if you plan on simply copying and pasting college rushing statistics to the NFL. This style can also invite big hits and presents a potential point of contention for whoever becomes his OC and QB coach at the next level. While operating in the midst of chaos is a trait we love seeing from young QBs, you can bet there will be a narrative at play about “taking what is given” and teaching Daniels to avoid contact when he becomes the franchise cornerstone of a billion-dollar organization.

3. The Growth Was Real

I watched the 2022 film (along with sneaking in some Arizona State film from 2019) just to see how Daniels progressed. Some of my notes from the 2022 season were “he looks scripted” and “first read plays are the norm”. It was 3-step drops and fire away. I never had an issue with his arm strength as he has the innate “flick” motion where the ball just zips to his receivers. While I cannot knock any player for simply doing what they were supposed to do, the eye-popping numbers for Daniels in his Heisman season and the highlight reel plays seemed to go into overdrive. This was a more decisive player (which sometimes was to his detriment) and the thing that clicked was making a decision and running with it. In other words, we want young QBs

He usually possessed the pocket awareness to slide when necessary and shuffling to his right as a thrower was usually beneficial. In the Mississippi game, he had some ups and downs. You wouldn’t know it as this game ended up 55-49(!) by the end with some offensive fireworks if you only box-score watched. Both teams were 3-1 in October but Daniels was inaccurate early in the game starting off 1-of-4 with a fumble on the first two drives. However, the in-game adjustments were what impressed me as Ole Miss gave him a look of Cover 2 & Cover 3 taking away the deep ball. Daniels’ first 20+ air yard completion came in the 2nd quarter (to Nabers of course) when finally he started splicing and dicing on intermediate and short area targets. I was pleased to see other names I respect in the film game come away with a similar conclusion from that Ole Miss game.

One thing I like about Jayden Daniels is that you can see him learning from his mistakes.

Earlier in the game, he took off running instead of getting to the backside dig

Here, he hits it to Nabers with good anticipation and placement pic.twitter.com/mGwi1Krv2I

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) February 23, 2024

What’s Not on Tape

While I’ve been writing for the Fantasy Footballers since 2016 and dabbled in some film work in past for other companies, I think my strength in looking at rookie QBs is asking a simple question: What am I not seeing? Let’s ask big questions and reflect on what our eyes are blinded to. Here are a couple of takeaways from what didn’t show up:

1. Play Action Passing

This is more pointing out what we didn’t see a ton of from Daniels: play-action passing. Was he good on those attempts? Good probably doesn’t apply when your QB Rating is a perfect 158.3 on those attempts. Yes, his Heisman-winning season included perfection (7 passing TDs on PA dropbacks) in most aspects of the game but RPOs are a different category completely to me and it makes sense we didn’t see a ton of Daniels behind center in an offense built on his playmaking ability out of shotgun. Only 16.9% of his attempts in 2023 were play-action, by far the lowest of all of the 2024 QB prospects. In fact, that ranked 155th(!) out of 162 qualifying QBs in the NCAA. For comparison, here is how Daniels looks alongside the other top-5 prospects in this class.

The league average for 2023 was 23.1% of dropbacks so I do want to temper any worry about this statistic. However, young QBs in systems where they are brought along slowly are often closer to 30%, and schemes with highly mobile QBs like Lamar Jackson (28%), Jalen Hurts (26.5%), and Justin Fields (25.9%) follow suit as well. It’s just something to monitor especially if hands with a team like New England at No. 3 overall with new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt. His heavy run schemes from four years in Cleveland were among the highest in play-action passing rate including Joe Flacco (32.9%) and Deshaun Watson (26.5%) ranking in the top 12 among QBs with 200+ dropbacks in 2023. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson (who is one of the few physical comps to Daniels) also stepped in but the team didn’t trust him nearly to the same degree (18.7%) turning his back to defenses and being able to read complex coverages. Daniels is on another level from DTR so don’t hear what I’m not saying. Rather, it’s valuable to see how he handles those reps in pre-season.

2. Real Pressure & Throwing the Ball Away

This might be cheating but whenever I see an electric mobile QB in college, you have to add in the element of how he handles pressure and throwing the ball away at the NFL level. In the eight games I viewed, I counted just four total throwaways. You can look at that challenge in a couple of ways: “Kyle, brother… I mean why throw the ball away when you can go for 500+ yards of total offenses against Florida?!?” It’s the Josh Allen dilemma Dane Brugler has brought up time and time again:

If you like Josh Allen: What an athlete and competitor!
If you dislike Allen: What is he doing? That’ll never work in the NFL.#Polarizing pic.twitter.com/L035cBdOrG

— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) October 30, 2017

Instead of landing at a conclusion, it is worth noting that rookie QBs can be drilled to throw the ball away as evidenced by Bryce Young‘s 51 throwaways, the most in the NFL since Aaron Rodgers in 2018. A whopping 18% of Young’s dropbacks ended in sacks or throwaways, a far cry from the 6.3% from Daniels’ 2023 season at LSU. QBs who slayed in college thanks to a trump card known as “playing well off-script” must be tempered at the next level. Improvisation is both a blessing and a curse: it works until it doesn’t work.

Fantasy Outlook

Based on GrindingtheMocks.com and odds on both DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks, Daniels is trending in the right direction to be a top-3 overall selection in April’s draft. However, we are also at the part of the process where groupthink is at an all-time high. Daniels recently decided to focus solely on his Pro Day although he would be available for interviews and meetings at the NFL combine. I’ve mentioned this stat many times in my rookie QB evaluations over the years but any rookie QB who hits 80+ rushing attempts essentially becomes a top-10 option at the QB position for fantasy. Thus, I slide him ahead of Drake Maye for fantasy purposes and behind Caleb Williams. If you wanted to make the argument that Daniels has a higher ceiling in Year 1 due his penchant for running, I get it. In SuperFlex leagues, he is in the conversation as the 1.03/1.04 rookie pick based on team need.