2024 Rookie Profile: QB Bo Nix (Fantasy Football)

We all know that this is a QB class. It has been touted left and right how many QBs might be drafted in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft to the myriad of QB-needy teams. Teams need that franchise QB –  that Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. After watching Mahomes march down the field to win the Super Bowl with a game-winning drive, it is hard to believe that a team could win the Super Bowl at this point with a Ryan Tannehill or another mid-level quarterback under center. Apologies, Ryan.

Now more than ever, a team needs their guy. Their franchise QB, the one that, when it all is on the line, can bring it home. Spoiler alert: these guys are tough to find. And even worse, sometimes you think you have found your guy and are rudely awakened to reality. Ahem, Bryce Young, anyone?

Lucky for the NFL and head coaches, the 2024 QB class has some talent. There is a lot to choose from this draft season, ranging from what some people say is the best QB prospect in years to a National Champion and many guys in the middle. One such prospect is Oregon’s Bo Nix.

For this series, the writers at The Fantasy Footballers will cover many of the top prospects in the 2024 class. We will examine each player’s production profile, measurables, and film to give an outlook for fantasy football in 2024 and beyond.

Editor’s Note: This article is part of our Rookie Profile series going on until the 2024 NFL Draft. For more on each rookie, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and the production profiles found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2024.

College Production Profile

Nix was born in Arkadelphia, Arkansas, and was a five-star recruit coming out of high school, where his father was his coach. He was crowned Alabama’s Mr. Football in 2018 and signed to play at nearby Auburn University. Even as a true freshman, Nix became the starting QB for Auburn in 2019 and ended the season as the SEC’s Freshman of the Year. His second season at Auburn was not as successful.

Nix initially went to Auburn because his father, Patrick, had spent time as the QB there. He was highly touted as a freshman, and come his second season, he began to feel the pressure that came with high expectations. He left the school having accumulated a 21-13 record over three seasons and transferred to Oregon. 

He had a connection in Eugene with OC Kenny Dillingham, who was Auburn’s offensive coordinator during Nix’s freshman season in 2019, and with two more years of eligibility, he settled into two fantastic seasons under center. They finished 10-3 his first year there and 12-2 during the 2023 season. Oregon won the Fiesta Bowl and lost the PAC-12 Championship to Washington. In 2023, Nix was first-team All-Pac-12, 2023 Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year, and a 2023 Heisman finalist.

Measurables

Several top-tier QBs chose not to throw at the combine. Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels decided not to show off their arm. This allowed Nix to shine in the throwing drills, hoping to improve his draft stock. He hit several deep balls and looked smooth.

What’s on Tape

Games Viewed: Cal (2023), Oregon St. (2023), Washington (2023), ASU (2023), Georgia (2022)

1. A Concise Arm, Especially in Intermediate Throws

Nix had the best completion rate among QBs with at least 100 dropbacks in the 2023 class, completing 77.3% of his passes during his final year at Oregon. He also threw the most TDs with 45 and only three INTs to go with it. The man was successful in getting the ball where he wanted it to go.

He has a strong arm – we saw it on display at the combine – but it isn’t the strongest in the class. He is strong enough to make the throws needed in the NFL, and the accuracy in his throws is apparent in the high-flying Oregon offense.

Accurate underneath and intermediate throws were Nix’s bread and butter, and his 7.6 pressure-to-sack conversion rate was the seventh-best in the nation in 2023. He was only sacked six times during his final year at Oregon. In addition, his 1% turnover-worthy play percentage was first in the nation, even with 2.44 seconds to throw, which was the fourth lowest.

2. Ability to Change His Arm Angle

It is a Patrick Mahomes world, and we’re just living in it. You know what I mean – when they slow down a Mahomes release, and you see his arm at a crazy angle that you didn’t think limbs could bend at. Nix seems to have a little of that. I’m not saying he is Mahomes, but he does seem to have the ability to vary his arm angle and still manage to connect the pass. It looks awkward at times.

This, combined with the fact that he can throw off-platform, often while on the move, puts together some highlight-worthy throws. 

3. He Can (Kind of) Run

This class isn’t chock a block full of running QBs, we don’t have a Lamar Jackson or Anthony Richardson in this draft class, but there were three QBs with over 100 rushing attempts during the 2023 season. Spoiler alert: Bo Nix was not one of them. But wait, hear me out. Even though Nix only had 54 rushing attempts in his final year at Oregon, he turned that into 234 yards. That is 4.3 yards per attempt, the fourth-highest in his class. He isn’t a pure statuesque pocket passer; he can scramble when pushed and isn’t afraid to use his legs if necessary. He even managed six rushing TDs. He is enough of a runner that the defense needs to know that he could take off, and at 6’2” and 214 lbs, he has solid overall athleticism and the size to make it work.

4. Indecisiveness and Inconsistent Feet

As mentioned, Nix can scramble and turn a play into positive yardage with his legs; other times, his footwork looks jumpy and stressful. When he is under pressure, you can see Nix physically tense up, dance on his toes, and recite the inner monologue “no, no, no, don’t tackle me” in his head as a lineman barrels towards him.

This leads to a couple of things. First, it leads to him questioning decisions and often ignoring progressions and big play possibilities for the “safe option.” Don’t hear what I’m not saying – the safe option isn’t bad. There are just several times in his tape when I saw better options materializing if Nix had stayed with it for an extra second.

It also can lead to off-target throws due to his inability to be ready to plant and throw. It is one thing to have the ability to throw off-platform and manufacture connections, but that should be a “use when needed” skill.

What’s Not on Tape

1. Bo Knows Experience 

We could easily dive into a discussion about the importance of college experience for QBs entering the NFL. May I offer you the Trey Lance and Brock Purdy chat? Nix is the most experienced quarterback in the draft this year, having played five years as a starter and starting an NCAA record of 61 games. He has experience leading two different offenses.

We have seen players drafted later than where Nix is projected to go have a real benefit to having more starts under their belt. Coaches will be getting a QB in Nix who has seen a lot and is confident in leading a team. 

Nix had to deal with adversity at Auburn, which was part of the reason that he eventually left the school and headed west to Oregon. The ability to deal with this and simultaneously grow as a player – he got better every year in college, and his completion percentage went up yearly – shows the cornerstone of a solid pro QB. However, with experience comes age, and Nix is older. He will be 24 years old at the time of the draft and has an older breakout age of 22.5, one of the oldest in his class.

2. Under True Pressure

Did his successful collegiate offense inflate Nix’s overall success? It is at least something to consider. In his final year at Oregon, of his 498 total dropbacks, he was only pressured on 79. In comparison, Caleb Williams had 151 dropbacks under pressure, and J.J. McCarthy had 113.

Nix was the only QB with over 450 total dropbacks and under 80 pressured dropbacks. He was not forced to play under pressure and was often aided by the talent around him and the play-calling. He had many safer designed checkdowns; over 22% of his dropbacks were screens, and over 36% were play-action.

It is a chicken or egg question – if he wasn’t forced to make these intricate big throws because he wasn’t asked to, does that mean he can still do it? We must see how Nix performs in the NFL to have this answer.

3. Playing Under Center

Welcome to Eugene, where your QB loves to play shotgun. Nix certainly isn’t the only Duck QB who lived in the shotgun formation and won’t be the last. Justin Herbert never strayed from the shotgun, and another past Oregon QB, Marcus Mariota had a difficult time adjusting to different types of game plans once he made it to the NFL after spending his collegiate career in shotgun formation. Herbert has seemed to do ok for himself, so adapting to a different system in the NFL is possible. Will Nix be more Mariota or Herbert? So much depends on his landing spot and if that team leans into what Nix offers scheme-wise.

4. Down Field Stuff

Nix was blessed with the Oregon offense – he had many easy first reads, screens, and RPOs. At Oregon, he was asked to make shorter throws – which proved quite fruitful – but he doesn’t have a highlight reel chock full of substantial downfield passes. Being accurate in that portion of the field is excellent, but when you don’t see tons of deep connections, it does leave you wondering if he can make those throws happen on an NFL level.

Is this as much of a massive hindrance as some people say? No. In today’s NFL, you want a QB who can methodically lead their team down the field with short and intermediate throws punctuated with well-thought-out runs, but they must be able to capitalize when they see blown coverage down the field. You could see some hesitation before launching a ball deep downfield, and during his final season, only 10.9% of his passes were deep balls, which were throws going for 20 or more yards.

Fantasy Outlook

Nix has a solid chance to be a starting QB in the NFL this season, with several teams dying to hit restart with the position. Even though it is clear that Nix has the tools to lead an NFL offense, his age throws some caution out there when it comes to dynasty.

Depending on his landing spot, he has the potential to be a startable fantasy option, but his lack of splashy plays and high-end potential makes me feel like he might be a “good for the NFL” QB rather than a “good for fantasy” QB. He seems safe. But is safe what you want in fantasy? Just this week, in fantasy court, Andy and Mike were discussing the draft spot of Anthony Richardson this season, with the guys varying drastically on their rankings. When it came down to it, Mike ranked Richardson higher and said you must take a risk to win a championship. Nix seems the opposite of risky. He seems like the seasoned point guard who will call the plays, run the offense, and do what he is told. His only risk might be deciding between oat and regular milk in his morning latte.

Currently, Grindingthemocks.com has Nix going at 15th overall, and NFLMockdraftdatabase.com is forecasting Nix in the 12th spot, heading to Denver. I have also seen Nix mocked to Las Vegas frequently. Both of these places would allow him to prove himself a leader and hopefully become fantasy-relevant. I think Nix’s best contribution to fantasy at this point would be as a second QB in a SuperFlex league.