2024 Rookie Profile: Brian Thomas Jr. (Fantasy Football)

The 2024 NFL Draft class looks loaded at wide receiver, with nine of them projected to go in the top 40 picks according to NFL Mock Draft Database. It would take seven of them to get selected in the first 32 to tie the record for most receivers taken in the first round. Blue chip prospects Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze have been on the NFL radar for years, but there’s a logjam of talented wide receivers behind them who have arrived on the scene more recently.

Brian Thomas Jr. is part of that group and has arguably improved his draft stock more than any other wideout over the last calendar year. Beginning with his breakout role in the nation’s top offense at LSU and aided by his head-turning performance at the combine, Thomas is considered by many to be the fourth-best receiver in this class and a surefire first-round pick. Let’s dive into his production, measurables, and film to see what we might expect from Thomas in future fantasy seasons.

Editor’s Note: This article is part of our Rookie Profile series going on until the 2024 NFL Draft. For more on each rookie, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and the production profiles found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2024.

College Production Profile

Thomas attended high school in Walker, Louisiana, just down the road from LSU. He was a stud on the football field but also ran track and was a stand-out basketball player, proving to be a true all-around athlete. It was an easy recruiting choice for the Tigers to bring on the homegrown four-star recruit.

He didn’t explode onto the scene as a freshman, but Thomas did make nine starts and caught at least one pass in each game of his debut season. He caught 28 passes, the same total as fellow freshman Malik Nabers. He had essentially the same production as a sophomore, while Nabers stole the show with his second-season breakout.

It was his junior year when Thomas took off. He led the nation with 17 receiving touchdowns, despite catching 21 fewer passes than his running mate Nabers. His yards per route run took a massive jump, up to 2.61 in his third collegiate season. It was clear that he was ready to level up and enter the NFL Draft.

Measurables

Checking in at 6’3” tall and 209 pounds at the combine, Thomas is well above the physical thresholds for a WR1 that can be found in the UDK Dynasty Pass. What sets him apart is how fast he ran at that size. His weight-adjusted speed and relative athletic (RAS) scores are some of the best we’ve ever seen.

Brian Thomas Jr. ran an absurd 4.34 at 6-2, 209 and had the 10th best overall RAS (relative athletic score) of 3,063 WRs from 1987 to now and ALSO has tape that translates to the NFL game .. and yet this WR class is SO stacked he can’t even break into the Top 3 at WR. https://t.co/lY6MuoZvlY

— Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) March 3, 2024

It’s safe to say that Thomas has all of the physical tools to succeed at the NFL level.

What’s on Tape

Games Viewed: Arkansas, Army, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama, Florida, Texas A&M.

1. Route Variety

Thomas is not a one-trick pony. When defensive backs play soft coverage, he’s adept at quick stops, comebacks, and slants. When they try to press him, he has the footwork and agility to break away (more on that below). He can excel from the slot, but he lined up out wide at least 85% of the time each season at LSU. There’s no need for him to be typecast in the NFL, he can do it all.

2. Creating Release With Footwork.

The first time I watched his film, the footwork didn’t jump off the screen. I was too concerned with his physicality and what he did at the catch point. When I went back and watched again, I realized that potentially his best trait is his get-off and the separation he immediately generates, especially when pressed. You can see it at the beginning of the clip below, which will also be referenced in his next best trait.

3. Strong but Inconsistent Hands

The clip above displays Thomas plucking the ball out of the air and securing it for the touchdown. His hands are soft enough to catch a deep fade in stride and strong enough to wrestle it away from a defender, but they were inconsistent. He had a 15.2% drop rate as a freshman but lowered it to a 6.8% rate as a junior. It isn’t ideal, and he put some bad drops on film, but he improved year over year in college.

What’s Not on Tape

1. Consistent High Pointing

Thomas can go up and get a jump ball, but he doesn’t always do so. The clip above shows a great example of his ability, but he frequently went for the “basket catch” approach. The following clip shows a deep ball that, while contested, he could have tried to go up and get. Instead, he waits for the ball to come to him while the defensive backs do their jobs.

2. Yards After the Catch

There weren’t many examples of Thomas making big plays out of short catches. Simply put, Thomas isn’t a YAC guy. His 5.7 YAC/rec ranked 64th amongst 126 collegiate receivers with at least 75 targets in 2023. While that isn’t great, it isn’t that far behind Malik Nabers (6.6) or Marvin Harrison Jr. (6.4) and is slightly ahead of Rome Odunze (5.6).

Fantasy Outlook

Thomas has all the traits of a typical NFL wide receiver. Size, athleticism, pedigree – he checks all the boxes. If mock drafts are to be believed, he’ll be selected in the first round of the draft. That usually leads to immediate opportunity in today’s NFL. As with all rookies, his landing spot will ultimately make a tremendous impact. He fits the bill of a true alpha, but there aren’t many teams in the back half of the first round in need of that type of wideout. His value will skyrocket if he lands in a place like Jacksonville or Pittsburgh, but could take a hit if he’s drafted to be a WR2 somewhere alongside a proven veteran. It’s a wide range of outcomes for Thomas, but he has all the tools to be a WR1 in fantasy for years to come if everything lines up.