2024 RB ADP Battles: Pittsburgh Steelers (Fantasy Football)

The Steelers made some big moves this offseason, improving the offensive line through the draft, investing in not one but two quarterbacks, trading away their number one receiver, and bringing in a new offensive coordinator. With all these changes, the Steelers’ running backs are looking like a steal (no pun intended) in fantasy drafts. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are being drafted at their floors right now. Last season, they finished back-to-back at 29th and 30th, but they’re currently being picked as RB24 and RB30. With the new offensive scheme, a stronger line, and improved quarterback play, there’s a real chance they’ll outperform their ADPs this season. So, which one should you pick? Let’s break it down and figure out which back is the best value for your fantasy team.

View the full ADP Battles series if you’re interested in reading more about teams with high concentrations of fantasy-relevant players!

By the Numbers

As I mentioned above, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren finished last year back-to-back as RB29 and RB30. They didn’t, however, see the same amount of carries or red zone usage. Let’s break it down:

Volume

Najee Harris has proven himself to be the workhorse, handling a heavy workload for the past three seasons. Last season, Najee Harris had over 100 more carries than Jaylen Warren, totaling 225 carries for 1,035 yards and averaging 11.5 fantasy points per game. He also had the majority of the red zone touches, ranking eighth overall among RBs according to PlayerProfiler. While Harris may not break off many long runs, his goal-line opportunities and consistent usage are hard to ignore. On the other hand, Warren had more work as a receiver, finishing the season with 61 receptions for 370 yards compared to Harris’s 29 receptions for 170 yards.

Even in this offense, I would be more than happy with Najee Harris as my RB1. pic.twitter.com/2dxfyFwoPt

— Joe Beldner (@JoeBeldner) August 28, 2022

Efficiency

Warren made the most of his opportunities as the change-of-pace back, averaging 5.3 yards per carry compared to Najee Harris‘ 4.1. He ranked first in juke rate and third in breakaway run rate. Warren outproduced Najee Harris on fewer carries and was the more efficient back. However, Harris did see an improvement in efficiency toward the end of the season, averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game from Week 16 to Week 18. Harris also played through injury, which may have affected his early-season performance. Despite this, Warren’s explosiveness in the backfield is undeniable. Harris can wear down a defense and handle the bulk of the carries, allowing Warren to excel in the receiving game and make an impact with his occasional touches. The question remains: Can Warren cut further into Harris’ workload?

Jaylen Warren among 69 RBs with 50+ rush attempts in 2023
3rd in yards after contact per attempt
4th in breakaway rush rate
2nd in missed tackles forced per attempt pic.twitter.com/KvkrUl3o7H

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) July 10, 2024

Situation

The Steelers’ offense was tough to watch last year — excruciating, if we’re being honest. They ranked 27th in points per game and 25th in total yards. Some of the blame falls on Matt Canada, who lost his position as offensive coordinator halfway through the season. Poor quarterback play didn’t help either; Kenny Pickett threw only six touchdowns in 13 games. The Steelers relied heavily on the running game, averaging 28.6 rush attempts per game, which ranked ninth in the league. So, what changes for 2024? Well, there’s hope for positive touchdown regression.

The Steelers made some big moves this offseason. They brought in Arthur Smith, the former head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, as their new offensive coordinator. In the draft, they focused on strengthening their offensive line by selecting OT Troy Fautanu in the first round and center Zach Frazier in the second. One of the biggest surprises was trading away wide receiver Diontae Johnson, their top target for a while. With Johnson gone, it seems the Steelers might lean more on their running game, which aligns with Arthur Smith’s style from his time with the Titans and Falcons — both teams finished in the top three in rushing attempts under Smith.

They also made bold changes at quarterback, parting ways with Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph to bring in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Either one is an improvement over Pickett and should help boost the offense and create more scoring opportunities.

The Steelers also go into the season with no contract extension for Najee Harris, who is in the final year of his rookie contract. This is what we call a prove-it year. Typically, players in this position are highly motivated to prove their worth and secure a lucrative extension, either with their current team or as a free agent.

Najee Harris Snap Rate, Opportunities & FPPG

Snaps: 84% > 66% > 53%
Opportunities: 23.6 > 19.1 > 17.3
FPPG: 15.5 > 11.9 > 10.6

5th year option declined… pic.twitter.com/C8aZzWRtja

— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) May 9, 2024

Conclusion

I’m targeting Najee Harris myself because of the guaranteed workload, especially in this offense led by Arthur Smith, who heavily utilized a grinder back during his tenure with the Titans and Falcons. I expect Harris to continue to get those valuable red zone touches, and more of them this year in a more efficient offense. Yes, Jaylen Warren is more efficient with his touches, but Harris, in a prove-it year after the Steelers denied his fifth-year option, has the pedigree and trust of the offense to get the majority of the work. I don’t see this changing. Jaylen Warren was an undrafted free agent and is undersized at 5’8″ and 207 lbs. With improved quarterback play and a more balanced attack, Harris should see more scoring opportunities, enhancing his touchdown potential.

If you miss on Harris, grab Warren.  I believe Jaylen Warren will also outproduce his ADP in this new and improved offense, and if Harris were to go down to injury, he could be a league winner. Betting on injury isn’t how I play fantasy, so it’s Harris first for me, but Warren is a great insurance policy plus.