2024 RB ADP Battles: Detroit Lions (Fantasy Football)

After an incredible 2023 season, everyone wants a piece of the Detroit Lions offense heading into 2024. Like the city of Detroit, this offense is built on the hard work and dedication of many. While playmakers Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown may highlight the offense with game-changing throws and catches, it is the ground game that truly elevates the unit past all others.

View the full ADP Battles series if you’re interested in reading more about teams with high concentrations of fantasy-relevant players!

In 2023, we saw two new members of the Lions thrive in fantasy football. David Montgomery joined the team in free agency and provided early-down reliability between the tackles with an incredibly efficient 4.6 yards per carry. Jahmyr Gibbs was drafted with the 12th overall pick in 2023, providing play-caller Ben Johnson with a very versatile weapon. Due to his smaller frame, the Lions used Gibbs much more in the passing game in addition to his work in the ground game. Together, the pair led a powerful “thunder and lightning” rushing attack reminiscent of the one led by Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara in the late 2010s.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery were LETHAL last season

: @NFL | @Lions pic.twitter.com/tCkvBLyQv1

— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) July 27, 2024

This article will dive into the backs and their statistics as well as why they are so efficient for fantasy. We’ll also take a look into the sustainability of their fantasy value and finally make a decision at the end of which back is a better value at ADP.

By the Numbers

Below is a brief breakdown of the backs’ stats from 2023 (fantasy points are half-PPR).

While the pair was equally efficient in terms of fantasy PPG, the road to get there was much different. Gibbs was more efficient on the ground and utilized much more in the air. Meanwhile, David Montgomery found himself with a lot more volume, getting nearly 40 more rushes than Gibbs in one fewer game.

Volume

Below is a graph of the pair’s opportunities across each week.

Though Jahmyr Gibbs had a slower start in his usage, he received and maintained a high volume of targets and rushes for the last three-quarters of the season, even eclipsing David Montgomery in later weeks.

David Montgomery missed three games, including Week 7 and Week 8, where Jahmyr Gibbs capitalized and broke out. In those two games, Gibbs finished as the RB3 and RB1, accruing 37 rushes for 220 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. In addition, he also accumulated 14 catches and 95 yards on 15 targets in the air. Montgomery thrived in Week 5 during one of Gibbs’ two missed games, finishing as the RB5.

Jahmyr Gibbs in two games as the starter:

• 32% Opportunity Share
• 15% Target Share
• 62% Rushing Share
• 68% Route Participation
• 15.3 Expected Fantasy Points

Gibbs has been an RB1 in Usage without David Montgomery in the lineup
pic.twitter.com/LtXtqhF9Qf

— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) October 24, 2023

In 2024, each running back will have week-winning upside should their counterpart miss a week.

More importantly, Jahmyr Gibbs really started to take the reins in the red zone as the season progressed. Outside of a spike week against the Buccaneers in Week 6 (when Gibbs was injured), Montgomery’s red zone opportunities remained pretty static.

Something that benefits the value of both backs is that the Lions don’t have a true “goal line rusher.” Though it was assumed this would be the role of Montgomery due to his bigger frame, Gibbs had a fair share of attempts from in close. In 2023, David Montgomery was given 28 rushes from five yards and in, while Jahmyr Gibbs had 11. Gibbs received many more of these valuable rushes later in the year, despite a smaller frame. This could be a trend moving forward, raising his fantasy ceiling.

Efficiency

While both backs are incredibly efficient in terms of yards per carry, it’s important to look at more advanced stats to see who is truly running better.

Success rate is a good indicator of whether a play is successful based on the down and distance remaining on any given play. David Montgomery was pretty static over the course of the season, while Jahmyr Gibbs had some pretty steady growth after a slower start. Overall, both backs found themselves over the league average (represented by the black dotted line in the graph) more times than not. While both backs are very talented on their own, they wouldn’t put up the numbers they do without the rest of the offense around them.

Situation

What will be changing in 2024 regarding the Lions offense? Not a lot. First off, Ben Johnson, who is widely touted in the league as one of the best play-callers, is staying for 2024 despite numerous head coaching offers.

One of my favorite thing about watching Ben Johnson’s offense is his creativity with constraint or counters on plays the Lions ran in the previous week pic.twitter.com/e6U9CGleii

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) January 26, 2024

In 2023, Detroit ranked second in PFF’s run-block rating, a stat imperative to the success of their rushers. All but one of the five starting members of the offensive line are returning. Joining the team to fill Jonah Jackson’s void is former Pro Bowl guard Kevin Zeitler. This is likely a slight upgrade at the position.

The situation in 2024 will be nearly the same, if not better, for Detroit running backs.

Conclusion

The Detroit backfield is fueled by incredible talent, versatility, blocking, and scheming. The situation should be nearly the same going into 2024, and both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs look to have point totals that are sustainable for the next few seasons.

.@MontgomerDavid really wasn’t letting @Jahmyr_Gibbs1 be the only Lions RB to show out on Sunday.

(via @nflfilms) pic.twitter.com/nl4GoPJp1x

— NFL (@NFL) November 15, 2023

Though they ended with nearly identical point totals, Gibbs (RB4 in ADP) and Montgomery (RB20 in ADP) are currently being drafted four rounds apart in half-PPR formats on Sleeper. There are a couple of different reasons for this discrepancy.

Gibbs has a higher ceiling because he is a playmaker who provides a higher chance of breaking off big-chunk plays and long touchdowns. His passing volume is also very attractive to drafters, especially in half or full PPR scoring formats. Gibbs may be more fun to watch, but Montgomery’s solid ground gains add up over the course of each game, and he often finds himself with a heightened floor relative to Gibbs because of the large volume of carries he receives.

Another potential thought for drafters is that Jahmyr Gibbs will get a spike in workload due to his superior efficiency. While Gibbs will likely be trusted more this year, I’d suspect the opportunities to look very similar to the tail end of last year. Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes know what they’ve got in these two running backs, and they’ll do all they can in order to keep them healthy as long as they both remain efficient.

#Lions GM Brad Holmes on Jahmyr Gibbs:

“I definitely would expect him to see more of a load, but David Montgomery will still be here, too. Dan [Campbell] and I love that 1-2 punch of him and David… I think he’s got much more to offer in the passing game, so most likely you’ll… pic.twitter.com/RXisJIVXZa

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 13, 2024

While Gibbs may see a slight uptick in touches, this backfield will likely remain as a committee. Overall, I think both running backs will be great for fantasy football this year. However, at cost, David Montgomery looks to be quite underrated relative to Jahmyr Gibbs and thus the better pick in 2024.