2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Odds, Polls, and Analysis for Next President

Table of Contents:

• Odds for the 2024 Presidential Election
• How Does the Electoral System Work?
• 2024 Election Timeline: Key Events
• Candidate Profiles: Trump and Harris
• Latest Election Polls
• Key Issues for the 2024 Election
• Battleground States
• Expert Predictions and Betting Picks

How Is the US President Elected?

If you want to bet on the next US president odds in 2024, you should know how the system works.

To elect the president, each state votes for who it wants to elect as president. Once the state’s votes are counted, the state’s government will select delegates to cast votes on behalf of the state’s voters.

Each state then sends its delegates to cast their state’s votes for president. The state delegates who vote on behalf of their states’ votes make up the electoral college.

It’s important to understand that the next US president is decided by the number of delegates, not the number of votes.

Next, I’ll explain the major milestones of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. It’s had many unique twists and turns, making it one of the most thrilling elections in modern history.

Trump began his career as a real estate mogul and became a household name with his TV show, The Apprentice. That show convinced many who voted for him in 2016 that they had watched him run his business. His promises to be tough on China and immigration policy appealed to blue collar workers who had lost jobs to global competition and low-wage workers.

Trump was elected president in 2016, where he relied on a Republican Congress to pass tax cut legislation and appoint Supreme Court justices who would have far-reaching policy effects beyond his presidency. After being voted out during the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump is seeking a second term with the backing of the Republican Party.

Harris was a prosecutor in California, and her law career has been a foundational part of her pitch to the American people. She became California’s attorney general in 2011. Then she was elected to the Senate in 2017 and ran for president in the 2020 Democratic primary.

She lost, but not before creating memorable debate moments against Joe Biden, like her “I was that little girl” story about bussing policy. Her strength on the debate stage made her a standout candidate, and Biden selected her to be Vice President. Harris was the natural next Democratic candidate when Biden withdrew from the 2024 race.

• FiveThirtyEight: This is a great hub for polls. You can see how different polls rank the candidates nationally and in each state.

• Ipsos: Ipsos is a prominent polling organization that often partners with other organizations and newspapers.

• Marquette Law School Polls: Marquette Law School offers polls that had lower error rates than many other polls in 2016 and 2020. Its snapshots of voters should be taken seriously.

Harris supports the bipartisan border security bill that failed in spring 2024. During her September 10 debate with Trump, Harris said “…that bill would have put 1,500 more border agents on the border to help those folks who are working there right now over time trying to do their job. It would have allowed us to stem the flow of fentanyl coming into the United States.” Harris also supports an earned path to citizenship.

Trump supports increased border security and proposed a plan to execute mass deportations of illegal migrants in the United States. He proposed to “start with one million” of the estimated 11 million migrants in the United States illegally. Trump has also supported legal action against sanctuary cities.

Immigration is one of the most important issues to Republican voters. If Harris can emphasize border security support, she could win conservative voters in key swing states in the mid-west and the Sun Belt.

Harris supports reinstating the protections in Roe v. Wade through federal legislation. She wants a federal policy that offers a baseline of protections for patients seeking abortions and reproductive care.

Trump has previously taken credit for Roe v. Wade’s overturn. He appointed the Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn it. In the September 10 debate, Trump said:

“…each individual state is voting. It’s the vote of the people now. It’s not tied up in the federal government. I did a great service in doing it.”

Abortion protections galvanized voters across the political spectrum. Kansas, a conservative state, voted to reject a state constitutional amendment that would’ve stated Kansas protects no right to abortions in 2022. The candidates’ handling of abortion seem more likely to move the odds in favor of Harris instead of Trump.

The economy is consistently one of the most important issues to voters across American elections.

In the September 10 presidential debate, Harris proposed a $6,000 child tax credit and a $50,000 tax cut for small businesses. In the same debate, Trump proposed new tariffs on China and additional tax cuts.

Whichever candidate can convince working-class Americans they’ll be better for them will pull the presidential betting odds in their direction. Which candidate will do that is currently a tossup.

When asked during the September 10 debate whether he wanted Ukraine to win its war against Russia, Trump said “I want the war to stop.” He didn’t commit to supporting one side or the other in the conflict.

Harris supported Ukraine’s victory and pledged to continue supporting it militarily. She also spoke about Ukraine’s strategic value in keeping Russia from invading neighboring Poland, a NATO country the United States is treaty-bound to defend if attacked.

Overall, just under a third of American voters believe the United States is spending too much supporting Ukraine’s military. Republicans are split roughly half and half. Support for Ukraine is more distant than domestic issues, but it’ll remain a small influence on odds. Victory or concessions for one side or the other could make this a much larger issue in the election.

After Hamas’ October 7 attack, murder, rape, and kidnapping of Israeli citizens, Israel launched a war to return the hostages and disable Hamas militarily.

Harris reaffirmed her support for a ceasefire deal that includes the return of Israeli hostages and for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine in her September 10 debate. She also pledged to support Israel in attacks from Iran and its proxies.

Trump alleged in the debate that Israel would “not exist within two year from now” if Harris were elected. The Guardian reported that Trump’s positions include cutting off aid to Palestine and barring refugees from Gaza.

Israel’s war in Gaza has split the Democratic Party, and injustices against the Palestinians could undermine Progressive support for Harris. A ceasefire and hostage return would be a major foreign policy victory that would likely boost Harris’ odds going into the election.

• Democrat +165
• Republican -220

Since Arizona is on the United States’ southern border, two of the biggest issues will be immigration and how candidates will address the fentanyl crisis. Economic issues will also loom large over Arizonans.

Polls find Trump ahead by almost two points, so the state is leaning Republican. However, the Democratic Senate candidate is six to eight points ahead of his Republican challenger. There could be an opening for Harris to improve her standing, especially if she can mobilize John McCain Republicans on Election Day.

Still, it looks like Arizona is Trump’s to lose, and the odds reflect that. I don’t recommend betting on the state as of mid-October.

• Democrat +150
• Republican -200

A March 2024 Marist poll found the top issues to Georgian voters included preserving democracy, immigration, and inflation as among the most important issues to them going into the election.

Georgia is the site for one of Trump’s federal indictments. He’s accused of directing a conspiracy to overturn the lawful election of Biden in 2020.

Immigration is a crucial issue to Republicans, so it’s naturally important to many Georgians. Finally, many voters were impacted by inflation and supply chain disruptions caused by lingering COVID outbreaks and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Polls show Trump leading Harris in Georgia. The margin is fairly slow, but this is another swing state that’s slowly showing a rise in Republican support. The -200 available for Trump isn’t high enough to back him, while the +150 for Harris is probably fair value, so again, I can’t recommend a wager on Georgia.

• Democrat -120
• Republican -110

An EPIC-MRA state poll surveyed Michiganders and asked them to name the most important issue to them. The top three issues were:

1. Inflation and the cost of living – 31%
2. Immigration and the southern border – 17%
3. Protecting abortion rights – 12%

Polls have Trump leading slightly in Michigan after Harris was ahead by about three points in September. The Democrats looked poised to win the state, but the tables might be turning. It’s a coin flip right now, so only bet on prices higher than +100 for any candidate.

• Democrat -125
• Republican -105

A state poll found that 39% of Nevadans ranked education as the most important electoral issue. It was followed by the economy and jobs at 16.2% and 12.7% respectively.

Nevada’s education system is consistently ranked among the worst in the United States. It came in 47^th in the 2024 Kids Count Data Book. Candidates will need to link their economic plans to improving education in Nevada to flip voters in this state.

Polls show Trump with a slim lead in Nevada, but the state remains virtually up for grabs and the top online betting sites offer slightly lower odds for the Democratic candidate. It’s hard to justify a bet for any candidate to win here at odds lower than +100.

• Democrat +140
• Republican -185

In an April 2024 High Point University poll, North Carolina voters listed inflation, national security, school safety, healthcare in general, and supporting veterans as the most important issues for Washington, D.C. representatives to confront.

Most polls from September and October have Trump slightly ahead, but a price of -185 is not high enough. In fact, the difference is currently a point or two, so the odds of +140 for the Democrats are the better choice.

• Democrat; +100
• Republican; -130

According to a Commonwealth Foundation poll, Pennsylvanian voters are focused on inflation and the cost of living, crime, and the economy in general. Both candidates have campaign angles to appeal to these concerns, but the latest polls show 3-4 points in favor of Trump.

This is a big enough lead for the -130 available for the Republican to be worth a bet. It equals an implied probability of 56.62%, while Trump is more likely around a 60% favorite.

• Democrat -120
• Republican -110

A Marquette Law School Poll completed in September 2024 found that the most important issue to Wisconsin voters were the economy, followed by abortion policy, then immigration and border security. Forty-one percent of respondents listed the economy as the most important issue. Only 15% and 12% of respondents listed abortion and immigration respectively as their most important issues.

This will be one of the closest states in the upcoming election, with all polls from September and October showing virtual equal numbers for both candidates. Similarly to other swing states, you need +100 or higher to even consider any candidate.

While Trump has spent much of the campaign revisiting old grievances, Harris initially galvanized a Democratic Party after Joe Biden stepped down. Polls, odds, prediction markets, and Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House pointed to a very marginal Harris victory shortly after she officially got the candidacy.

However, the initial boost seems to be fading as of mid-October. Trump has turned the tables in most swing stages, according to the polls, so he is a slight favorite to win. The current odds of -130 reflect that well, so there’s no value in backing either candidate with a bet.

The situation is similar with the winning party market.

Trump has taken the Republican Party and made it his own. Not a single previous Republican presidential candidate spoke at the Republican National Convention. Much of Trump’s family and closest allies got speaking spots instead.

Meanwhile the Democrats were ready to unite against the former president, but the problem is that Kamala Harris might not be the candidate to take full advantage of the situation.

She is trying to position herself as the candidate who can bring change on key issues related to the economy and immigration, but her role as a vice president in the past four years is hurting her candidacy.

As a result, the Republicans are slightly more likely to win, but the odds reflect that and don’t provide good opportunities as of mid-October. However, that’s not the case with the popular vote! Let’s talk about that.

Democrats have won the popular vote in seven of the last eight elections. In two elections, Democrats won the popular vote but lost the election: once in 2000 and again in 2016. Broadly, Democratic policies are popular with more Americans, but those Americans are concentrated in the cities and suburbs.

Democrats are favored to win the popular vote again in 2024, and they probably will. The odds for such an outcome were very low for most of the campaign, but you can get -290 as of mid-October. That’s just high enough to be worth it, so this is our recommended bet for the upcoming election.