2024 Nobel Peace Prize Betting Odds and Predictions

Zelenskyy, 46, was elected to office after winning the Ukrainian presidential election convincingly with 73 percent of the vote in April 2019⁵. Three years later, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which started in February 2014.

The former actor and comedian inherited a politically tense situation, with the Kremlin increasingly becoming concerned with Zelenskyy’s pro-West stance. Since Feb. 24, 2022, the Ukrainian president has remained an active figure in the face of Russia’s invasion.

Despite many political pundits expecting a quick and easy win for Putin, Ukraine’s 46-year-old president has stood up to Russian hostilities for more than two years. The conflict has reached a stalemate, with neither side making significant gains on the frontline.

Zelenskyy’s commitment has been widely heralded around the world. Note that he has been the favorite to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in past years! He was the clear favorite to win a year ago, but came up short.

Ukraine’s leader was on the front page of Time Magazine in 2022, but the Norwegian Nobel Committee hasn’t given Zelenskyy the nod.

The Ukrainian president’s odds have improved over the months, as Zelenskyy is now +400 after +800 earlier in the year. That being said, it’s hard to see how 2024 would be a different result for Zelenskyy than last year’s Nobel Peace Prize announcement.

One of the least-known favorites near the top of the Nobel Peace Prize odds, Ilham Tohti, 54, is a top contender to win in 2024.

Although Tohti is not a leading favorite alongside Navalny and Zelenskyy, he deserves high marks on your shortlist of 2024 Nobel Peace Prize bets.

The Uyghur activist is currently serving a life sentence in China after being convicted of separatism in September 2014. Tohti was jailed shortly after he was awarded the Martin Ennals Award for human rights.

In 2019, Tohti earned a prestigious award from the European Union. He was honored with the Sakharov Prize — the highest human rights award bestowed on an individual in Europe.

9 years ago today Professor Ilham Tohti was arrested for his promotion of peaceful dialogue on the discrimination of Uyghur people.

Nearly a decade later, Professor Tohti remains in detention. Our thoughts are with his family, who we join in demanding his immediate release. pic.twitter.com/MIiSpFMeKn

— Stop Uyghur Genocide (@UyghurStop) January 15, 2023

Tohti has been on China’s radar for more than two decades of trying to understand and build bridges between the Uyghurs and Han Chinese ethnic groups.

The economics professor at Central University used various means to draw attention to the Uyghurs’ plight and treatment in China, including the inability to gain meaningful employment and practice their religion peacefully.

The owner and operator of the website “Uyghur Online”, Tohti educated the public about the ongoing tension between the ethnic groups in China. The website was shut down multiple times — the last being in 2014 in conjunction with his arrest⁶.

Two U.S. lawmakers Rep. Chris Smith and Sen. Jeff Merkley are responsible for Tohti’s Nobel Peace Prize nomination. They are top members of the U.S. Congressional-Executive Commission on China⁷.

Ilham Tohti’s prison guard jailed.Ghopur Abdurishit was a guard in No.1 prison where Ilham Tohti is imprisoned. He was the only Uyghur guard among other Han guards. He got detained Feb 1 2024, for leaking his info to others.This confirms that up to Feb, 2024 Tohti is still alive. pic.twitter.com/KFTpfMjabf

— Abduweli Ayup (@AbduwelA) September 15, 2024

Tohti’s whereabouts are currently unknown, but evidence reveals that he is alive as of February.

Plenty of money has flowed in on Tohti’s Nobel Peace Prize 2024 odds recently, so his chances are improving, according to online betting sites. His implied probability shifted from 7.7% to 16.7% after his price moved from +1200 to +500!

Belarusian political activist Svitlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Nobel Peace Prize odds have been on the move, too. The staunch opponent to the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, Tsikhanouskaya has braved authoritarian rule in opposition to the Belarus’ government.

In 2020, Tsikanouskaya ran as an independent candidate against Lukashenko. She quickly asserted herself as a candidate for Lukashenko’s opponents in Belarus to rally behind. With Tsikanouskaya’s husband sentenced to prison for 18 years for social unrest and inciting violence, her mission took on a new meaning.

“I must admit, I am also sometimes frozen with fear. In those moments I think of my husband and thousands of political prisoners” powerful words by Svitlana Tsikhanouskaya. She said her biggest inspiration is Maria Kolesnikova, who today celebrates her 41 birthday behind bars pic.twitter.com/BAutl8q5ee

— Natalia Smolentceva (@ananats) April 24, 2023

As widespread protests spread throughout Belarus, Tsikanouskaya’s life was in serious danger. Consequently, she departed Belarus and was welcomed in Lithuania due to her well-being in danger in her home country.

Tsikanouskaya has been recognized by the European Parliament as the Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus. In March, the European Parliament and Tsikanouskaya signed a Letter of Intent in support of the democratic forces of Belarus.

European Parliament President Metsola stated, “Belarus will not become the forgotten corner of Europe.”

At +500, Tsikanouskaya is one of the better 2024 Nobel Peace Prize picks on the board. She is on my shortlist of potential winners of this prestigious award!