2024 NFL Season Long Player Prop Bets (Fantasy Football)

Betting on the NFL is becoming increasingly more difficult as the years go by and as the markets adjust. However, one market that remains beatable is player props, specifically season long player props. Over the last two years, we’ve gone went 17-9 in this market, focusing primarily on taking unders. There’s no doubt that across a multiple year sample, unders are going to hit at a much higher rate than overs when trying to project what might happen over the course of a full season. Why is that? There’s many things that can go wrong for a player across an 18-week regular season.

Here are a few:

• Injuries happen in the NFL – that’s just a fact, especially at the RB position. We’ll be searching for unders for backs given that it’s rare a back plays all 17 games. Most will miss 2-3 at a minimum based on historical numbers.
• Teammates missing time – If a starting QB goes down, that entire offense is likely to suffer, especially a WR, who’s target quality could be negatively impacted. Similarly, if one or multiple starting offensive linemen go down, the running back’s efficiency could suffer.
• Coaching and scheme change – These can change a player’s usage (targets, carries, etc.)

For an over to hit on a season long outlook, so much has to go right. No doubt, unders are the way to go if you’re looking to profit in this market. Be sure to line shop for the best odds if you have access to multiple books to always grab the best number and odds!

For this article, I typically look at Andy, Mike and Jason’s Premium Projections in the Ultimate Draft Kit and compared them to the Vegas odds then added some context around the projection and the associated bet. We’re releasing this article earlier than usual, so we don’t have full projections available until June 1. Once those projections are available in the UDK, we’ll have a much larger menu of bets and data to support those wagers. Be sure to bookmark this page and check back frequently as I’ll be adding more throughout the offseason.

In addition, be sure to join the #Props channel in Discord so you can be notified as soon as we take a bet, ensuring you get the best line. Best of luck with all your wagers!

*Lines accurate at time of publishing*

1. Bo Nix U18.5 Passing TDs (-125)

Sportsbook: DraftKings
Date: 4/29/24
Analysis: Since 2020, rookie QBs with 8+ games started have gone 3-10 against this number. The only ones who threw for 19+ TDs as a rookie over the last four years? C.J. Stroud, Mac Jones and Justin Herbert. For reference, this bet will cash so long as Nix plays at least one snap in the 2024 season; he does not need to start Week 1. Nix enters a Broncos offense completely void of difference makers at the skill position on a run-first team. In 2023, Sean Payton’s Broncos ranked 26th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and 27th in pass attempts per game.

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