2024 NFL Draft Rookie Profile: WR Xavier Worthy

Most analysts talk about the depth of the 2024 wide receiver class, and Xavier Worthy is one of those interesting wide receivers who could be a late first-round rookie pick in dynasty leagues. With game-breaking speed and big play ability, he offers plenty of upside for fantasy football. Will his talents translate to the NFL, or will he become John Ross 2.0? There is plenty of divide on Worthy as a prospect, so let’s look at his profile to see what we may expect from Worthy at the next level.

College Production

Xavier Worthy started his college career hot as a freshman, garnering attention from the dynasty fantasy football community. His dominance in his freshman season led to a breakout age of 18.4 (97th percentile) per PlayerProfiler. We love to see wide receivers break out early in their collegiate careers. Unfortunately, Worthy didn’t improve upon that production in the two years following. His sophomore season was disappointing as he had 221 fewer receiving yards but only two fewer receptions. Worthy did perform well in his junior season, but most will still say that it was disappointing when considering the hype following his freshman year.

 

 

 

 

Although Worthy’s best season was his freshman season, there is some hope that he can be a factor in the NFL. It’s good to see names like Christian Kirk and T.Y. Hilton on this list and if Worthy were to have success similar to Hilton, then that would be a big win for dynasty managers who draft him.

NFL Next Gen Grades

NFL Next Gen Stats has grades for a prospect’s production and athleticism and then combines it for an overall grade. Worthy received a modest 81 production score (74th percentile of wide receivers since 2014). Worthy ranks fifth in the 2024 class in production grade.

Important Metric Thresholds

Xavier Worthy is close to average across other important metric thresholds. He is a fourth-tier wide receiver prospect in Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, which is disappointing but does not mean he won’t succeed at the next level. Worthy ranks highly in this class in career receiving yards market share but is average to below average in other career metrics, leading to a solid overall analytical profile. In the 2024 class, Worthy ranks as the:

• WR2 in career team receiving yards market share
• WR4 in career yards per team pass attempt
• WR7(T) in career EPA per team pass attempt
• WR12 in career yards per route run
• WR12(T) in career first downs per route run

Measurables

One of the biggest stories from the 2024 NFL Combine was Xavier Worthy’s record-breaking 4.21 40-yard dash. Since running at the combine, his draft stock seemingly continues to rise. It’s easy to get excited about speed, but as Scott Barrett has pointed out, speed alone does not equate to fantasy points. Does this mean that Worthy won’t ever have a 1,000-yard season? No, but we cannot be so enamored with his speed that we don’t dive further into his overall prospect profile.

The Fastest Wide Receivers in NFL Combine History

Round 1 picks: 7
Day 2 picks: 19
1,000-yard WRs: 1 (highlighted in bold) pic.twitter.com/pjaXVqFFau

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 2, 2024

Other aspects of Worthy’s measurables are less desirable than his speed. At 5’11” and 165 pounds, he has a small frame. His BMI is 23, below the threshold of 25 we typically like to see. Low BMI does not mean you cannot play football in the NFL. However, only some players have become elite fantasy assets with smaller frames like this. DeVonta Smith is a recent example of a true impact wide receiver with a smaller frame. The issue is that wide receivers with smaller frames have a lower hit rate. Per NFL Draft Buzz, Worthy’s hands measured at 8.75 inches (21st percentile) and had a 41-inch vertical (96th percentile).

What’s on Tape

Games Watched: 2023 – TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas, Alabama, Oklahoma St, Washington

I walked away from watching Xavier Worthy’s film neither impressed nor disappointed. He is a solid prospect with plenty of upside and risk. Let’s examine the tape and consider Worthy’s potential strengths and weaknesses.

1. Deep Threat Ability

Any speedster will likely be a threat to take the top off the defense, and Worthy is no different. Opposing defenses clearly respected his ability to stretch the field, and he consistently won when going deep. His speed is too much for most corners to recover with an accurate throw.

Part of Worthy’s issues with consistently producing downfield was Quinn Ewers’s failure to hit Worthy in stride. When researching Worthy, I saw plenty of Ewers bashing; some of it is warranted. Of quarterbacks in the Power Five conferences, Ewers ranked 38th in PFF Grade when throwing 20+ yards down the field and was tied for 76th in adjusted completion percentage (33.3%). You can probably cut up tape for other receivers that would make their quarterback look bad, so I don’t want to sound like this is an excuse for any lack of production. I just think it’s worth bringing up since it is frequently brought up by others when evaluating Worthy.

2. Making Big Plays

Worthy only needs one missed tackle or a little space to make a big-time play with the ball in his hands. His speed can make defenders look like they took the wrong angle, and if they do, it will likely result in a significant gain. Per PFF, 34.45% of his receptions were from screens in Worthy’s final two seasons at Texas. A high percentage of a player’s total receptions coming from screens can be viewed as a negative, but Worthy is more than a screen merchant. With his big play ability, it’s no wonder Texas tried to get the ball in his hands as quickly as possible.

What Not on Tape

1. Beating Press Coverage

Most film analysts agree that Worthy struggles against press coverage due to his small frame, which will be a weakness at the next level. Per Reception Perception, Worthy had a 59.5% success rate against press coverage (28th percentile). In the NFL, beating press coverage will only get more difficult. Worthy played in the slot 37.7% of the time in his final season and could win when lining up wide, but as he transitions into the pros, he may become more of a slot receiver if he has difficulties adjusting.

2. Winning Contested Catch Situations

Over the past two seasons, Worthy has only caught nine of 32 contested targets (28%). With his smaller frame, I could see these situations becoming increasingly difficult for him to win. He struggles to attack the ball at the high point and cannot be trusted by the quarterback in 50/50 situations.

Fantasy Outlook

Will Xavier Worthy have a career like Jaylen Waddle‘s, or will he be more of a John Ross? Maybe somewhere in between? His immediate fantasy potential will be tied heavily to the team he gets drafted to. In Worthy’s first season, I would be surprised if he finishes as a top-24 wide receiver. I view him as more of a top-36 type of player who will be hard to trust in lineups immediately because of inconsistencies. In dynasty leagues, he will likely be a solid pick as a late first-round or early second-round rookie pick.