2024 NFL Draft Rookie Profile: RB Ray Davis (Fantasy Football)

The story of Re’Mahn Walter Zhamar Jamar Davis is different than the stories of other college football players who declared for the NFL draft. It doesn’t have anything to do with his height, weight, or experience – Davis grew up homeless, roaming the streets of San Francisco, taking care of his siblings to the extent that he could at a young age. At eight years old, he was a ward of the state, and by 12, he was living in a homeless shelter with two of his 14 siblings.

A long road of supportive adults, solid mentorships, and good choices led to an opportunity to attend Trinity-Pawling, an all-boys prep school in New York, where he participated in basketball, baseball, track, and football. After graduation, his first college offer came as a scholarship from Purdue. Davis ended up at Temple, Vanderbilt, and finally, Kentucky, playing football consistently at all three. Davis enters the draft this season after a college career no one saw coming.

In a year with no true RB stars, where does Davis fall?

For this series, the writers at The Fantasy Footballers will be covering many of the top prospects in the 2024 class. We will look at each player’s production profile, measurables, and film to give an outlook for fantasy football in 2024 and beyond.

Editor’s Note: This article is part of our Rookie Profile series going on until the 2024 NFL Draft. For more on each rookie, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and the production profiles found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2024.

College Production Profile

Davis has a lot of numbers to look at – he has logged time at three colleges during his young career. He started at Temple, where he had a solid first season, rushing for close to 1,000 yards and ten total TDs. After four games in his second season, Davis entered the transfer portal and ended up at Vanderbilt. His time on the field that season in Nashville was short-lived, unfortunately, as he quickly injured his knee and missed most of the season.

He began to shine in his second year at Vanderbilt, finishing as a semifinalist for the SEC Comeback Player of the Year after running for 1,042 yards. Davis decided to enter the transfer portal for the second time and finished his college career as a Kentucky Wildcat.

Davis had a strong year at Kentucky, finishing with 1,129 yards on the ground and 323 through the air. He had 21 total TDs and a solid 751 yards after contact.

Measurables

Davis had a decent showing at the combine, with his personal highlight being his 40-yard dash time. He was the 10th fastest among the RBs there.

What’s on Tape

Games Viewed: Florida (2023), Alabama (2023), Georgia (2023)

1. He Can Catch 

Davis is not a prolific pass catcher, but as we know, any little bit helps with fantasy value. Davis ties for fourth with the most targets among RBs in his class with 39. This is the highest of his career – however, the previous year at Vanderbilt, he did have 37, so seeing a couple of years of solid production in the receiving game makes you hopeful that this is the start of a trend instead of a one-off.  He had at least one reception in 25 straight games played.

Davis converted the 39 targets his final year at Kentucky into 32 receptions and 324 yards with a respectable 1.28 Y/RR for an RB. And his catches aren’t just always those easy dump-off RB catches we usually see. The man ran routes and looked confident doing so.

2. Contact Balance 

Once Davis gets the ball in his hands, he is stable and has solid contact balance due partly to his low center of gravity and overall size. This contact balance translates into some powerful runs. Several times in his tape, you see him grinding out extra yards when he looks to be stopped in his tracks. After being caught by defenders near the sideline, he always manages to dance for a couple of extra yards before falling forward and out of bounds.

3. Success After Contact

This good overall balance has led Davis to be successful after contact. His 3.81 YCO/A led to 751 yards after contact during his final year at Kentucky, the seventh-best in his draft class. Davis has solid vision when it comes to identifying holes in the defense, and after aggressively committing, he almost always manages to push through for yardage, often dragging a couple of players with him.

What’s Not on Tape

1. High End Speed

Davis has speed but lacks the true breakaway speed you want to see in NFL RBs when they hit the open field. His acceleration and long speed are average, and there is something slightly labored about how he runs. I constantly held my breath, asking, “Is he gonna make it, or is he gonna get run down?” while watching some of his longer runs. Spoiler alert – it is a close call many times. When Davis gets to the NFL, he will have to figure out a way to put the pedal down, or else he will get caught by the bigger, faster defenders.

2. Sponsored by AARP

Davis will be an elder stateman heading into his rookie season in the NFL. He is 24.4 years old, one of the oldest in his class, with a breakout age of 19.8, which now seems eons ago. But there has been plenty of tread on those tires at a position in the NFL with a clear shelf life. Davis has over 800 college touches and a past knee injury to boot. This injury made him lose most of his 2021 season at Vanderbilt (he played only three games), so it could remove some of the tread.

In addition, he is the first player in Division I that has run for over 900 yards at three different schools.  If he is going to be successful in the NFL he has to do it from the word go, or he will quickly become an afterthought. Rookie RBs that enter the NFL at that age rarely see success. Since 2007, there have only been 19 RBs who were drafted at 24 or older. And no, we aren’t looking at fantasy must-starts here – Andre Ellington and James Starks were usable, but there wasn’t a big clamor to draft Kenjon Barner or Kiero Small in rookie drafts.

Even though Davis is older, if he falls into the right situation, there is more than a zero percent chance he could succeed immediately at the professional level. He is one of the more polished RBs in the draft, with experience in multiple offenses. Davis has shown that once inserted into an offense, he can quickly take the lead. He posted a 21% dominator in 2019 as a freshman at Temple. He lost playing time his sophomore year due to entering the transfer portal and then a subsequent injury, but he had a 26% dominator rating in 2022 and an insane 40% dominator rating in his last year at Kentucky.

Notable Rookie RB Prospects in order of touches per game:

• Jonathon Brooks – 21.2
• Audric Estime – 18.8
• Ray Davis – 17.8
• Blake Corum – 17.7
• Bucky Irving – 17.5
• Braelon Allen – 17.4
• Jaylen Wright – 13.1
• Trey Benson – 12.0
• MarShawn Lloyd – 11.6 pic.twitter.com/dOWusAPJCp

— Alfredo Brown (@ThePretendGM) March 29, 2024

3. His Ability to Overcome

Davis’ story will pull at your heartstrings – how can it not – but it does not substitute for success or lack thereof on the field. However, it must be considered when looking at Davis from a mile-high view. The man has the drive and passion to better himself and succeed. If there is a hunger in an athlete to improve, that man can contribute to an NFL team. The question is, can he also contribute to your fantasy team?

At the combine, Davis spoke about his drive.

“I don’t dwell on celebrating the small wins. Once you celebrate the small wins, you become complacent. Once you become complacent, you won’t get to where you need to go. If I sit here and try to celebrate that I’ve made it, then truthfully — what is there to celebrate? I’m supposed to be here.” said Davis.

Fantasy Outlook

The chance of Davis being the RB1 for a team right out of the gate this season is slim. I see more of a chance of Davis being part of a committee, but I could see a world where his dependability, perhaps combined with an injury to another RB, thrusts Davis into a starting role. Davis is solid but not spectacular. He is efficient but not mind-blowing. However, if given the opportunity, he could produce.

Because of his age, if you are considering Davis in fantasy, your best bet would be as a redraft option as opposed to dynasty. You don’t want to hold on to a 24-year-old rookie RB with the hopes of him becoming a starter and helping your dynasty team down the road. That isn’t going to happen. However, depending on his landing spot in redraft, he might be worth a late-round dart throw. If he has talent, use him now and then unload him quickly if you can.

We could see a Tyler Allgeier-type situation with Davis. Allgeier entered the league as a big body bruiser, with a height and weight similar to Davis, and we saw him finish his rookie season with 1,035 rushing yards and three TDs. If you take a chance on Davis late in your draft, you might be happy with that outcome. 

According to nflmockdraftdatabase.com, Davis is currently 118th on their consensus big board and the 10th RB off the board. I foresee Davis being drafted in the late third or early fourth round, which doesn’t give him excellent draft capital, but we are in a year of rookie RBs where we will see very few of them garnering fantastic draft capital.