2024 NFL Draft Rookie Profile: QB J.J. McCarthy

J.J. McCarthy, one of the most intriguing prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft, led Michigan to a National Championship in his third collegiate season. Not long ago, McCarthy was viewed as a late first or second-round pick. Eventually, the hype ramped up, and we now see him consistently mocked in the top-five picks of the NFL draft. It will be interesting to see how it plays out on draft day and whether or not a team trades up for him or he ends up sliding down the board. Either way, we are here to discuss his potential outlook for fantasy purposes, so let’s look at his profile and fantasy outlook. 

Editors Note: This article is part of our Rookie Profile series going on until the 2024 NFL Draft. For more on each rookie, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and production profiles found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2024.

Production Profile

24/7 Sports rated J.J. McCarthy as a four-star recruit in the 2021 recruiting class (sixth overall quarterback). McCarthy had a very successful high school career, winning a state and national championship while holding a 34-2 record. 

McCarthy continued to win games at the collegiate level, going 17-1 as a starter in two seasons. He played 11 games in his freshman season but didn’t start any. Unfortunately, the “red flag” that comes up despite all of the success is his lack of production due to Michigan’s run-heavy offense. NFL Next Gen grades production, and McCarthy received an 84, the second-lowest of the top six quarterback prospects. 

While the production is less than we would like, McCarthy does look good in several metrics. The above table charts quarterbacks drafted in the first three rounds since 2014. As you can see, he is primarily green across the board, which is a good sign. The data is from Campus 2 Canton and PFF. 

The two areas he lacked in comparison to other quarterbacks were team rushing yards market share and PFF’s Big Time Throw Percentage. McCarthy does have the athleticism to pick up yards on the ground. However, that wasn’t a part of his game while at Michigan. He could run more at the NFL level if in a particular system, as he has the ability. Regarding the big-time throw rate metric, PFF charts throws of high difficulty and value, and McCarthy was average but did meet the threshold you would like to see. For comparison, Patrick Mahomes also had a 5.7% big-time throw rate. I am in no way comparing McCarthy to Mahomes, just adding context. 

McCarthy ranks third in the 2024 class in career expected points added per play and expected points added per pass play. EPA is a metric that measures a player’s value and impact on their offense and scoring. McCarthy also had a solid sack rate, which does tend to translate to the NFL. Below is where McCarthy ranks among the top six quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

• QB3 in Career EPA Per Pass Play
• QB3 in Career EPA Per Play
• QB3 in Career ESPN QBR
• QB4 in Career Adjusted Yards Per Attempt
• QB5 in Career Team Rush Yards Market Share
• QB3 in Final Two Years Sack Rate
• QB5 in Final Two Years Big Time Throw Rate

Measurables

McCarthy is 6’2″, weighs 219 lbs, and has good athleticism. His hand size is in the ninth percentile, at nine inches. While McCarthy did not run an official 40-yard dash, Fox Sports claims in an article that J.J. McCarthy reportedly ran a 4.48 40-yard dash before the 2023 season began. As I said before, just because he didn’t rush the ball at Michigan doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t be able to pick up those extra fantasy points on the ground occasionally. Michigan was a run-heavy team, so it makes sense he didn’t have a sizeable rushing yard market share.

What’s on Tape

Games Watched (2023): Iowa (Big 10 Championship), Alabama (CFP Semifinals), Washington (National Championship), Michigan St., Ohio St.

When watching McCarthy’s film, I wanted to watch the post-season games and a couple of regular-season games to get a mixture. While the box score may not show that he did much, McCarthy played a vital role in Michigan’s success and made big-time throws in big-time games when asked (even though he wasn’t asked frequently). When watching the tape, I watch how a quarterback performs in the pocket, how accurate their throws are, and how they handle decision-making. 

1. Arm Talent

While J.J. McCarthy may get the “game manager” title thrown at him, he does have plenty of arm talent and had multiple “wow” throws. The clip below is from the National Championship game against Washington. McCarthy steps into a perfect throw, just over the defender, where his receiver catches the ball in stride, allowing yards after the catch. 

 

2. Pocket Awareness

I liked what I saw from McCarthy while he navigated the pocket. He knew when to step up to avoid pressure or even escape the pocket completely and improvise. McCarthy was also able to make throws even with pressure in his face. The clip below exemplifies that, but I have mixed feelings about it. This play could have resulted in an interception, but it was a good throw in tight coverage with pressure in his face. 

3. Making Plays on the Run

I mentioned McCarthy’s ability to extend plays outside of the pocket earlier, and I believe he has the talent to continue making plays on the run at the next level. In the play below, McCarthy senses the pressure, avoids the sack, keeps his eyes downfield, and throws a dot to his receiver for the touchdown. 

What’s Not on Tape

1. Rushing Production

I have repeatedly discussed how McCarthy may be an underrated runner and could provide some rushing upside in the NFL. While rushing production is not evident when watching most of his games, I did find a couple of plays that displayed his ability. The play below demonstrates his speed and ability to get up the field. However, I don’t like seeing him take the hit that he did at the end. Rushing is a skill that McCarthy can refine and add to his game to be a solid dual-threat quarterback. 

2. Managing Red Zone Opportunities 

Matt Waldman’s tweet below points out that McCarthy needs to improve both in the red zone and when backed up to his own end zone. Matt is a respected film scout, and I think he points out something valid that McCarthy may need to work on. 

JJ McCarthy must improve his red zone gm. pic.twitter.com/5QuZocwgS8

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) January 22, 2024

Fantasy Outlook

Regarding J.J. McCarthy’s fantasy outlook, he has the potential to be a solid QB2 with upside, and his landing spot could increase that upside. If his new team utilizes his athleticism and speed, he could have top-12 upside. As a dynasty asset, I wouldn’t expect consistent production in year one, but McCarthy could become valuable, mainly in SuperFlex leagues. The best possible scenario would be the Minnesota Vikings trading up for McCarthy, which would quickly inflate his fantasy value. McCarthy will likely be picked somewhere in the 1.05-1.08 range in SuperFlex dynasty rookie drafts.