2024 NFL Draft Betting Guide: Mock 2.0 (Fantasy Football)

The 2024 NFL Draft is just a couple of days away! The first round kicks off on Thursday, April 25, and things are starting to crystalize in terms of what Round 1 might look like after the first 32 names are called. Because betting on the NFL Draft is an information based market, it can be extremely valuable to source Big Boards and mock drafts of the top NFL Draft scouts and companies around the industry. While that’s one piece of the equation, the betting market can also be an indicator of the top 32 picks each year, so I do use it as part of my process.

In this mock draft, I used betting odds from various sportsbooks as well as information from around the league to try to figure out what the first round might look like on Thursday night. If you’re interested in our process and official plays, be sure to check out our 2024 NFL Draft Props article and listen to The Fantasy Footballers DFS and Betting Podcast, which is out every Friday. Without further ado, Mock 2.0 is live! You can see what’s changed over the last few weeks by checking out my Mock 1.0.

*Odds accurate at time of publishing*

1. Chicago Bears – QB Caleb Williams, USC

Betting Market: Number 1 Overall Pick (-10000)
Analysis: Justin Fields is now in Pittsburgh. Williams will be the pick as the Bears’ new franchise QB.

2. Washington Commanders – QB Jayden Daniels, LSU

Betting Market: Daniels to be the 2nd overall pick (-1200)
Analysis: In my Mock 1.0, I had Daniels going to Washington, but as we get closer to draft night, I think there’s some variability in who this pick could be. Truthfully, we probably won’t know the pick until Thursday night, which is what Adam Peters prefers. For those of you that were involved in the 2021 NFL Draft when Peters was in San Francisco, this should feel eerily similar. With that said, it’s hard to ignore the steam coming from major sources like Schrager, Daniel Jeremiah, Adam Schefter, etc. I’ll follow the chalk and go with the Heisman winner.

3. New England Patriots – QB Drake Maye, UNC

Betting Market: Drake Maye to be the 3rd overall pick (-320)
Analysis: There’s a lot of rumblings that owner Robert Kraft wants the team to stand pat and take a QB. Despite the “reports” that the Pats are open for business in terms of trading back, I think they stay here and take either Daniels or Maye – whoever is available at this pick. In this exercise with Maye off the board, Maye is the pick, though J.J. McCarthy is picking up steam as a potential selection.

4. Arizona Cardinals – WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

Betting Market: Marvin Harrison Jr. to be the 4th overall pick (-220)
Analysis: The Cardinals are in desperate need of a true WR1, and there may not be a better one in this class than Marv. Sure, they could trade back if a certain QB falls to this pick, but if they go back to 11 for example, can they guarantee that they’ll be able to come back up for one of the ‘Big Three’ in this class? Arizona already has 11 picks in this draft, including six picks in the top-90, so they don’t necessarily need to accumulate more assets. It’s time to get Kyler a true alpha WR1.

5. Minnesota Vikings (Via Trade) – J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Betting Market: J.J. McCarthy Draft Position O/U 5.5
Analysis: There’s rumors that the Vikings and the Chargers already have a handshake agreement in place prior to the start of the draft to make a deal if the right guy falls to #5. It’s no secret that the Vikings are in need of a QB after Kirk Cousins left for Atlanta, and now they’ve got two first round picks to go get one after making a deal with Houston a few weeks ago. The Chargers have holes all over the roster, so moving back makes all the sense in the world here.

6. New York Giants – WR Malik Nabers, LSU

Betting Market: Nabers to be the 6th overall pick (+170)
Analysis: This could very well be either Nabers or Rome Odunze, whoever is higher on the Giants’ board. I understand that they’ve done their homework on the top QB prospects in this class, but in this exercise, the top four prospects are off the board. The Giants haven’t had a legit playmaker at WR since Odell Beckham left years ago. Nabers is a plug and play spark plug who would inject some life into a Giants offense that ranked 31st last year in the rate of drives that resulted in three-and-out (41.7%).

7. Tennessee Titans – OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame

Betting Market: Joe Alt O/U 7.5 (U7.5 heavily juiced)
Analysis: Alt is the consensus OT1 in this class, and while this is arguably the chalkiest pick in the mock draft streets, it’s easy to understand why. The Titans are in desperate need of a LT after Andre Dillard ranked 38th out of 38 qualified left tackles in pressure rate allowed last season per PFF, and he’s now in Green Bay. I could see the Titans going with Odunze or Nabers, but after signing Calvin Ridley to a massive deal in free agency, perhaps the Titans prioritize WR in Round 1. If they want to continue to upgrade the pass catching group, a strong prospect should be available when they pick 38th overall in Round 2.

8. New York Jets (Via Trade) – WR Rome Odunze, Washington

Betting Market: Rome Odunze Draft Position O/U 8.5
Analysis: I had this exact move in my Mock 1.0, and I think it just makes too much sense, so I’m going back to the well here. New York is clearly in win now mode with Aaron Rodgers, and this coaching staff is perhaps not so quietly on the hot seat to produce right now. The team signed Mike Williams in free agency, yet it’s a one-year deal, and he’s coming off a torn ACL. Behind Garrett Wilson and Big Mike, this team has nothing in terms of pass catchers. Odunze could be a legit difference maker to help get this team over the hump in 2024 and beyond. It’s no secret the Bears are in on Odunze if he falls to nine, so it’s certainly possible the Jets try to jump Chicago. Atlanta would only be moving back two spots in this exercise, which would still allow them to grab one of the top defensive players in this class.

It’s draft week: The #Jets are on the clock in three days. Think pass catcher. pic.twitter.com/28dW1aQDEl

— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) April 22, 2024

9. Chicago Bears – DT II Byron Murphy, Texas

Betting Market: Byron Murphy to be the 9th overall pick (+185)
Analysis: Rome Odunze to the Bears has become one of the most obvious chalk picks in the mock draft industry, but there’s a realistic scenario where Odunze is long gone before Chicago is on the clock with the ninth overall pick. If that’s the case, the Bears could look to OT or take a defensive lineman. While Dallas Turner is the top rated pass rusher in consensus big boards, Byron Murphy is screaming up draft boards, and is a good fit in Matt Eberflus’ system, which focuses on pressure from the inside out. Sure, they spent a second round pick on DT Zacch Pickens last year, but he played just a fraction of the snaps and starter Justin Jones vacates 740 total snaps from last season.

10. Atlanta Falcons (Via Trade) – DE Laiatu Latu, UCLA

Betting Market: Latu to be a top-10 pick (+250)
Analysis: The Falcons were 32nd in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate last season and haven’t had a top tier edge rusher since….???? The chalk pick in the consensus mock draft industry is to slide Dallas Turner to Atlanta at 8, and while I certainly think he could be the pick for Atlanta, there’s lots of rumblings behind the scenes that Latu is their top ranked edge player. Current DC Jimmy Lake coached Latu when he was at Washington, so he obviously has a fan in the building. The big question is whether or not Atlanta has medically cleared Latu from his neck injury, which required a fusion surgery a few years ago.

11. Los Angeles Chargers (Via Trade) – OT JC Latham, Alabama

Betting Market: JC Latham O/U 14.5
Analysis: If the Chargers move back, I expect them to land in this 11-13ish range, which is a prime spot to take one of the great offensive tackle prospects in this class. This Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers team is going to prioritize the run and build through the trenches. With LT Rashawn Slater already locked in, this club could use an upgrade on the right side of the line where Latham primarily played in college. Harbaugh and the Wolverines saw Latham first hand in the College Football Playoffs this year and likely appreciates his dominant run-blocking profile.

12. Denver Broncos – EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama

Betting Market: Dallas Turner Draft Position O/U 9.5
Analysis: The Broncos would love to move up for one of the top QBs in this class, but in this exercise, they’re not able to get into the top five. It’s possible they take Bo Nix with this pick, but with holes all over the roster and major question marks about Nix’s profile, the Broncos are in a position to take best player available. In this exercise, they add some talent off the edge in the form of ‘Bama’s Dallas Turner.

13. Las Vegas Raiders – CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama

Betting Market: Terrion Arnold O/U 15.5
Analysis: Head coach, Antonio Pierce, has publicly called adding a CB1, a “priority” then went to Bama’s Pro Day to see Arnold in person after meeting with him at the Combine. This pick could easily be an offensive tackle in a great class or the QB Michael Penix, but for this exercise, Arnold is the pick over Quinyon Mitchell given GM Tom Telesco’s tendency to draft players from power five schools. In his last four drafts in LA, he took exactly one player from a non–Power Five school. In this mock, he goes to the SEC for Arnold out of ‘Bama.

14. New Orleans Saints – OT Olu Fashanu, Penn State

Betting Market: Saints first draft position? Offensive Line (-400)
Analysis: The Saints are seemingly backed into a corner when it comes to their Round 1 draft plans. There may not be a more obvious need in the draft than the Saints needing an offensive tackle, especially with Ryan Ramcyzk’s status up in the air following knee surgery. Former first rounder Trevor Penning was benched at times last year, and in a deep tackle class, I see them using the 14th overall pick to bolster the O-line.

15. Indianapolis Colts – TE Brock Bowers, Georgia

Betting Market: Colts first draft position? TE (+380)
Analysis: Most NFL Draft analysts have said the absolute floor for a guy like Bowers is 15 to Indy. In this exercise, I have the Jets and Broncos passing on Bowers and “falling” to the Colts at 15. I’ve heard the Colts would prefer to move back and potentially target a guy like Brian Thomas Jr., but if Bowers is there, I expect them to stand pat and get one of the best TE prospects we’ve seen in quite some time.

16. Seattle Seahawks – EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State

Betting Market: Jared Verse Draft Position O/U 16.5
Analysis: Most mocks have the Seahawks taking an offensive lineman, and while I do think that’s very likely, I would not dismiss GM Jon Schneider investing in the defensive line, something he’s done frequently during his time in Seattle. New head coach, Mike Macdonald, who comes over from Baltimore is a defensive minded-head coach, which could also point to a defensive player with this selection.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama

Betting Market: Jaguars first draft position? Cornerback (-170)
Analysis: I fully expect the Jags to take Terrion Arnold if he’s available at 17, but in this exercise, they take his teammate in Kool-Aid. He’s a guy with a wide range of outcomes, but there’s some rumblings that the team is high on him and he fits a major need for a defense that struggled to defend the pass last year.

18. Cincinnati Bengals – Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo

Betting Market: Bengals first position drafted? Cornerback (+550)
Analysis: The Bengals could go any number of directions with this pick – OL, DT, CB, or WR are in play. Late in the process, cornerback is starting to gain steam as a potential first round pick for Cincy. They’re heavily linked to Byron Murphy, but with him long gone, they turn their attention to Mitchell, who would be a day one starter for a secondary that gave up a ton of explosive plays last year.

19. Los Angeles Rams – OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State

Betting Market: Rams first position drafted? Offensive Line (+115)
Analysis: I think most expect the Rams to take a defensive player to replace Aaron Donald, but one thing that I thought was interesting was that in his first mock, Peter Schrager “guaranteed” the Rams would take an offensive player with the 19th pick if they don’t trade back. Of course, it’s difficult to know how much stock to put into that, but with most of the top defensive prospects off the board here, I have the Rams improving their offensive line with a guy like Fuaga.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – IOL Graham Barton, Duke

Betting Market: Steelers first position drafted? Offensive Line (-280)
Analysis: The Steelers are one of the NFL franchises who frequently draft off their top-3o visit list. They’ve met with almost all of the top offensive linemen in this class, so it seems like they’ll be adding to their starting O-line in Round 1 then addressing WR on day two. Barton has been a steady riser throughout the draft process and has positional flexibility, which is something Pittsburgh could covet given Barton’s ability to play center, which is a glaring need on this offensive line. If it’s not Barton, I expect the pick to be Amarius Mims.

21. Miami Dolphins – OL, Troy Fautanu, Washington

Betting Market: Dolphins first draft position? Offensive Line (-180)
Analysis: The Dolphins are a bit of a wild card in this draft. They lack a true WR3 and they could really use some help on the offensive line as well as on the defensive line after their top edge rushers suffered season-ending injuries last year. In this mock, Fautanu fills a major need for Miami given his ability to play guard or tackle. I have Fautanu falling a bit in my mock, given some reports on medical concerns about his knee, but I would not be shocked to see him go as high as 10th overall to the Jets.

22. Philadelphia Eagles – OT Amarius Mims, Georgia

Betting Market: Eagles first draft position? Offensive Line (+170)
Analysis: I could easily see this pick being a defensive back, and there’s some rumors that the Eagles could move up a few spots if their CB of choice is available. In this exercise, I’m going to follow the trends with Howie Roseman, who is always interested in replenishing the offensive line before it’s an actual need. Lane Johnson has been battling a groin injury for a couple of years and is only getting older. Philly beat Jimmy Kempski recently wrote a mailbag article listing the top prospects he thinks the Eagles could take in Round 1 and listed Mims as one of those options. He’s inexperienced, but this is the perfect landing spot for a guy with massive upside who doesn’t have to start Week 1. You know, Howie does have a thing for Georgia prospects…

23. Los Angeles Chargers (Via Trade) – CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa

Betting Market: Cooper DeJean O/U 23.5
Analysis: DeJean feels like a bit of a wild card in this draft. I could see him going as high as 16 to Seattle, dropping to Philly at 22, or falling to someone like Green Bay at 25. Regardless of where he goes, he is trending towards a R1 lock after crushing his Pro Day. A versatile weapon, Cooper can play any number of positions in Jim Harbaugh’s defense and help improve a pass defense that was one of the worst in football in 2023.

24. Dallas Cowboys – OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma

Betting Market: Cowboys first drafted position? Offensive Line (-250)
Analysis: Obviously, the Cowboys lost Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz in the offseason, so it’s not surprising to see them do a ton of homework on these offensive tackle prospects, including Guyton. He fills an obvious void along the offensive line.

25. Green Bay Packers – OT Jordan Morgan, Arizona

Betting Market: Packers first drafted position? Offensive Line (-180)
Analysis: We know the Packers prioritize highly athletic prospects under their current GM. Morgan fits the bill with a 9.24 RAS. He can play tackle or guard at the next level, and Green Bay needs to bolster their O-line to continue to help Jordan Love take a step forward.

Jordan Morgan is a OT prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 9.24 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 105 out of 1377 OT from 1987 to 2024. https://t.co/PiANHIbxQR pic.twitter.com/YB5lJPoHoy

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 19, 2024

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – C Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon

Betting Market: JPJ to be a first round pick? Yes (-195)
Analysis: JPJ has a wide range of outcomes in this draft. I’ve heard some teams have a first round grade on him while others have him with a third round grade. Early in the process, he looked like a round one lock then he faded a bit and now is gaining steam again. Connecting some dots here – The Bucs met formally with Jackson Powers-Johnson at the NFL Scouting Combine and also had him in for a Top 30 visit in the same offseason that Ryan Jensen retired.

27. Arizona Cardinals – CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson

Betting Market: Nate Wiggins Draft Position O/U 28.5
Analysis: Wiggins is a bit undersized, but there’s a lot of scouts who like his tape and think he’s a Round 1 talent. I could see the Cardinals going offensive line here, moving up for an edge player or taking a corner. We know this secondary has holes everywhere and while they did sign Sean Murphy-Bunting in free agency, they’re still in need of another corner.

28. Buffalo Bills – WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU

Betting Market: Bills first draft position? Wide Receiver (-240)
Analysis: It’s no secret that the Bills need a WR after trading Stefon Diggs to the Texans. I do think the Bills may need to move up a few spots in order to secure Thomas in this draft. However, we could see him slip into the 20s given that there’s been some reporting about a shoulder injury that might require a procedure prior to the start of the season. Either way, the betting markets definitely think the Bills walk away from Round 1 with a WR. It’s hard to disagree.

29. Detroit Lions – DL Darius Robinson, Missouri

Betting Market: Darius Robinson Draft Position O/U 28.5
Analysis: I don’t have a strong stance that Robinson is the Lions’ guy, but his draft position is right around this mark, and he got an invite to the draft to be in the Green Room on Thursday night, suggesting he’s likely to go Round 1. Robinson did very well at his Pro Day to solidify his draft stock. With experience as an EDGE player and a DT in college, Robinson has the versatility to earn snaps right away as a rookie to continue to bolster the Lions’ pass rush.

30. Baltimore Ravens – EDGE Chop Robinson, Penn State

Betting Market: Chop Robinson Draft Position O/U 25.5
Analysis: It seems to happen year over year that the Ravens get a talented player to fall to them in Round 1. I think the Ravens would prefer to go offensive line if possible, but in this exercise, most of the top prospects are off the board. It’s possible they trade up, but we know this front office is more than willing to let the draft fall to them and take best player available.

31. San Francisco 49ers – WR Xavier Worthy, Texas

Betting Market: Xavier Worthy draft position O/U 28.5
Analysis: This late in the first round, it’s always difficult to project specific players to teams, and Worthy is a fringe first rounder. However, we know the NFL always values speed and tends to overvalue the 40-yard dash, which Worthy obviously crushed. The Brandon Aiyuk rumors are a factor here in placing Worthy to SF, but to be completely honest, he’s a difficult prospect to place. Either way, I think he’s speed vaults him into Round 1 on Thursday night.

32. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Kingsley Suamataia, BYU

Betting Market: Chiefs first draft position? Offensive Line (+110)
Analysis: Another pick I had in my Mock 1.0, Suamataia fits a need at LT for the Chiefs to help protect Pat Mahomes’ blind side. He’s a fringe first rounder, but Tom Pelissero reported on Tuesday morning that the BYU tackle is a sneaky candidate to slide into Round 1, and I’ve heard his visits with the Chiefs have gone well.

Also Considered:

• WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas
• WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia
• WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
• WR Xavier Legette, South Carolina
• C Zach Frazier, West Virginia
• QB Bo Nix, Oregon
• QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
• DT Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois
• LB Edgerrin Cooper, Texas A&M