2024 Dynasty Ultimatums: 5 RBs Entering Make-or-Break Fantasy Seasons

Welcome back to our Dynasty Ultimatums series! Last season, we introduced this series to spotlight players on the brink of pivotal fantasy seasons, providing insights into their future dynasty outlooks. Reflecting on last year’s article, many of the running backs featured succumbed to injuries that hindered their seasons and future prospects. Conversely, some players exceeded expectations and boosted their dynasty value.

The running backs analyzed in 2023 included D’Andre Swift, Dameon Pierce, Cam Akers, JK Dobbins, and De’Von Achane. Of these, only Swift and Achane met their ultimatum requirements, significantly improving their fantasy value heading into the 2024 season. In contrast, Pierce was irrelevant for most of the fantasy season, while Akers and Dobbins suffered significant injury setbacks, casting doubt on their ability to secure substantial roles with their teams moving forward.

As the 2024 NFL season approaches, it brings a host of questions about the fate of many notable players. For dynasty managers, maintaining realistic expectations for these controversial players is crucial. It can be tough to lose faith in players we once had high hopes for, but setting dynasty ultimatums can help us manage our rosters more effectively. In this article, we will explore controversial running backs entering make-or-break seasons, outlining the specific goals they need to achieve to meet their current expectations.

Check out the first article from this series, featuring quarterbacks.

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams (23.8 y.o.)

Current Contract: Rookie (2022-2025), 4 yr(s) / $3,970,404

Free Agent: 2026 / UFA

Few feelings compare to watching a late-round running back, initially considered a long shot, transform into a fantasy football superstar. Despite the rarity of such occurrences, akin to finding a four-leaf clover or witnessing a shooting star, those who gambled on Kyren Williams hit the jackpot with his remarkable 2023 season. After a rookie year with limited playing time, Williams seized his sophomore opportunity as the Los Angeles Rams’ lead back. He led the NFL in rushing yards per game average (95.3), scored 15 touchdowns in just 12 games, and finished as the RB2 in average fantasy points per game with 19.9. At only 23 years old and playing in one of the most fantasy-friendly offenses in the league, Williams should profile to be a top-tier asset in dynasty leagues for years to come. However, despite his potential, significant red flags and warning signs could jeopardize his sustained success and elite production moving forward.

As a fifth-round draft pick, the odds of Williams maintaining a featured role in the NFL are certainly stacked against him. We have seen countless late-round running backs emerge with promising seasons only to fall down the depth chart, get replaced by backs with higher draft capital, and eventually fade into irrelevance in dynasty leagues. However, there have been notable outliers at the position who have sustained top-tier relevance, such as Austin Ekeler, who was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Los Angeles Chargers in 2017. While Williams’ skillset and size almost mirror Ekeler’s in several ways, following a similar career path will be challenging.

This potential issue is compounded when considering how the Rams have managed the running back position since Todd Gurley‘s departure from superstardom in 2019. Since then, the Rams have not had a running back lead the team in rushing yards in consecutive seasons, despite Cam Akers being the top rusher in 2020 and 2022. Although Akers might have sustained more seasons as the team’s top back if not for significant injuries, he was drafted with this expectation as a second-round pick. Williams aims to be the first Rams running back in the last five years to be the team’s top rusher in back-to-back seasons, but he will face considerable competition on the team’s depth chart heading into 2024.

Now to address the elephant in the room, or rather, the wolverine, if we take collegiate mascots into consideration. Although it was anticipated that the Rams might bolster their running back depth in the draft, they not only addressed the position but also invested high draft capital in one of the class’s more exciting prospects. The team used their third-round pick on Blake Corum from the University of Michigan, who led the nation in rushing touchdowns and was instrumental in his program’s national championship victory. While it is premature to claim Corum is better than Williams, he does surpass him in draft capital and weight, profiling as a powerful goal line back. This specific area of expertise could pose a significant issue for Williams’ fantasy outlook in 2024, considering that 37% of his fantasy points last season came from touchdowns. If Corum can replicate his collegiate success in the NFL, it could significantly diminish Williams’ weekly upside.

Ultimately, Williams must prove he is indeed “that dude” by securing the lead back responsibilities over the incoming rookie in 2024. This is reminiscent of Dameon Pierce‘s position in last year’s article in several ways. Despite a highly promising rookie season, I doubted Pierce could replicate his success due to his fourth-round draft capital and a new coaching staff that did not select him. Faced with these challenges, Pierce needed an exceptional season to secure his role as the team’s future lead back. Unfortunately, he fell short, finishing as the RB52 in total points in 2023, far from his top-15 dynasty ultimatum.

Fortunately, I do not foresee a similar fate for Williams in the upcoming season. I believe Williams is a significantly more talented player who has already earned his head coach’s trust. With this in mind, we are raising the bar for his fantasy ultimatum, due to last year’s elite production. Williams must finish the 2024 season as a top-10 running back while fending off Corum for lead back duties. While I am more than eager to take advantage of his slipping ADP in redraft leagues, Williams’ dynasty outlook concerns me. This is primarily due to his expiring rookie contract, his continued difficulty in staying healthy, and the team’s lack of need to commit to him, given his low draft capital. He is more of a hold for competing teams due to his potential immediate outlook, but I would consider selling him if you are planning a rebuild. This could be most advantageous after a few high-scoring weeks in the 2024 season or before your league’s trade deadline. Ultimately, despite my hope for his continued NFL success, there are enough red flags in Williams’ profile to make me cautious about his long-term dynasty outlook.

Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (24.8 y.o.)

Current Contract: Rookie (2022-2025), 4 yr(s) / $4,403,932

Free Agent: 2026 / UFA

After four seasons of the Josh Jacobs show in the Las Vegas Raiders‘ backfield, a new featured back is set to headline Sin City in 2024. Zamir White, who had limited opportunities during his first two NFL seasons, was thrust into the starting role when Jacobs missed Weeks 15-18 due to injury last season. White seized the opportunity, averaging 21 carries for 99.25 yards and 0.25 touchdowns over those four games, and finished as a top-20 running back in each contest he started. With Jacobs now out of the picture, he leaves behind 56% of the team’s carries and 10% of its targets. With minimal competition on the depth chart, White is poised for a massive opportunity as the Raiders’ RB1 in 2024.

Averaging just over 24 opportunities per game in his brief stint as the team’s starter, White is poised for one of the league’s larger workloads in the upcoming season. Last year, only four running backs averaged over 20 touches per game: Kyren Williams (21.7), Christian McCaffrey (21.2), Josh Jacobs (20.8), and Saquon Barkley (20.6). Jacobs’ inclusion near the top of this list suggests a similar bell cow role for White if he proves capable. White has already earned the trust of Head Coach Antonio Pierce and will benefit from their new offensive coordinator, Luke Getsy, who ranked in the top two in rush rate during his two seasons with the Chicago Bears. Given the new coaching staff and the absence of an established quarterback, it is reasonable to expect the Raiders to adopt a ground-and-pound approach in 2024, aiming to establish the run early and often. In fantasy football, opportunity is key, and White is expected to see plenty in the upcoming season.

While White looked spectacular in his four-game sample last season, it is fair to question his talent and whether he can succeed in a featured role. We have seen numerous backup running backs excel in limited roles or as injury replacements, only to falter when promoted to full-time starters. This was most recently the case with Alexander Mattison of the Minnesota Vikings, who is now expected to serve as White’s primary backup in Las Vegas. Like Kyren Williams, White must prove he deserves a future contract despite his low draft capital. However, White also needs to demonstrate that he can perform at a starting caliber in the NFL for an entire season, leaving little room for error. If he fails to do so, a promising opportunity could quickly vanish, reminiscent of the fate of numerous backup running backs who, upon being promoted to full-time starters, failed to meet expectations.

Due to this, his dynasty ultimatum is to finish as a top-20 running back in 2024, demonstrating he can handle a larger workload and thrive. At almost 25 years old, he is certainly on the older side for a running back who has yet to have a breakout season. Nevertheless, he is expected to see one of the largest workloads in the league next season for a team aiming to establish the run. White will need to develop his skills in the passing game to cope with several projected negative game scripts where the team is chasing points, as well as a potentially lower-scoring offense that could limit his touchdown opportunities. Overall, White could very well return RB2 value in 2024, but this might also be his peak season and value. Therefore, unless you are competing for a championship, selling him high might be the best move to capitalize on his maximum trade value.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers (26.4 y.o.)

Current Contract: Free Agent (2024-2027), 4 yr(s) / $48,000,000

Free Agent: 2028 / UFA

Assessing Josh Jacobs in dynasty leagues presents a unique challenge. While his fantasy output has been inconsistent over the years, he has managed to finish as a top-20 running back in four of his five NFL seasons. Notably, his standout performance came in 2022 when he finished as the RB3 for the season and led the league with nearly 1,700 rushing yards. Criticizing his RB27 ranking in total fantasy points for 2023 would be unfair, given that he only played 13 games. However, concerning metrics such as his 3.45 yards per carry last season suggests Jacobs may be experiencing a decline despite his relatively youthful age. Now, with a fresh start in Green Bay, Jacobs faces the critical task of proving whether this perceived decline is factual or if he can rejuvenate his career in a better offensive environment.

After spending his first five professional seasons with the Raiders, Jacobs will be taking snaps behind Jordan Love with the Green Bay Packers in 2024. Heading into his second season as Green Bay’s starter after a breakout campaign in 2023, expectations are sky-high for Love and this potent offense. Due to this, Jacobs should have several touchdown opportunities in 2024 if the team maintains its current pace. He signed a lucrative four-year contract worth up to $48 million with Green Bay, which appears very promising on paper. However, it is significant to note that the majority of the guaranteed money is only in his first year, making it easier for the Packers to move on if he fails to prove his worth in his initial season with the team. Although Jacobs is currently valued as an RB1 in dynasty leagues, his future might be more uncertain than it appears at first glance.

Adding to the uncertainty, the Packers selected MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of this year’s draft. The incoming rookie had an impressive career at USC and was the fourth running back selected, following Jonathon Brooks, Trey Benson, and Blake Corum. Given his draft capital and perceived talent, Lloyd is expected to carve out a significant role in the offense. AJ Dillon also remains on the depth chart and will likely see some work despite his declining efficiency in recent years. If Lloyd proves his worth in his rookie year, it could pose a greater threat to Jacobs’ fantasy upside than many anticipate. Jacobs is accustomed to one of the league’s heaviest workloads, which has helped mask some inefficiencies for fantasy purposes. However, this could change for the worse in Green Bay. Since 2019, Matt LaFleur’s offenses have featured nearly 50-50 splits between two backs, with no season exceeding a 62% share for any player. This pattern held when Aaron Jones shared the backfield with Jamaal Williams and later with Dillon.

While Jacobs might secure a larger piece of the pie to begin the season due to Lloyd being a rookie, trends suggest an eventual timeshare is likely. Therefore, Jacobs must improve his efficiency or risk the team turning to their rookie in the latter half of the year. If Lloyd receives more opportunities or significantly outperforms Jacobs, it is conceivable the team could transition to Lloyd as their primary back. This scenario is further supported by Green Bay having one of the youngest offensive cores in the league, which would be complemented by the younger Lloyd. Consequently, Jacobs’ dynasty ultimatum is to finish as a top-15 running back in 2024, proving that he is still a fringe RB1 for fantasy football and deserves to play out the rest of his contract. If he improves his efficiency metrics and produces at an elite level, there is little reason for the team to move on from him, barring potential financial obstacles.

Ultimately, Jacobs has the potential to finish as an RB1 in the upcoming season, but he carries some red flags and enough risk that the wheels could potentially fall off. Not only is he coming off his worst season in the NFL, but he has also accumulated over 1,500 touches in his five-year career. These factors could suggest a potential expedited decline for Jacobs, especially considering his heavy workload early in his career, which likely led to significant wear and tear on his body. Therefore, it might be wise to trade him to a competing team if you are considering maximizing his current trade value or eyeing a rebuild. Conversely, he is still young enough to have several seasons of productive play if he can reclaim his prior form.

Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints (22.0 y.o.)

Current Contract: Rookie (2023-2026), 4 yr(s) / $5,654,319

Free Agent: 2027 / UFA

Kendre Miller has been rapidly gaining traction among astute dynasty managers as a sneaky buy-low trade target for the 2024 season. Despite my high regard for him as a prospect, his draft journey was ultimately overshadowed by ongoing recovery from an ACL surgery sustained during his final collegiate season. Unfortunately, his injury troubles persisted into his rookie year, sidelining him for nine games due to a high ankle sprain suffered in preseason. Although he saw limited action until the final week of the 2023 season, Miller left a lasting impression, displaying his immense potential by rushing 13 times for 73 yards and a touchdown while filling in for the injured Alvin Kamara. While Kamara is slated to remain the team’s starting running back in 2024, various metrics hint that Miller could emerge as a hidden gem, offering substantial value at a bargain price for the upcoming season and beyond. 

Despite boasting an illustrious career that has translated advantageously to fantasy football, Alvin Kamara’s days as an elite fantasy asset are inevitably drawing to a close. Approaching the age of 29, Kamara has already reached the dreaded age cliff at which running backs typically experience drastic declines, as highlighted in Marvin Elequin‘s must-read article “The Dynasty Lifecycle of Running Backs (Fantasy Football),” shown in the chart above. While he managed to lead all running backs in targets per game (6.6) and receptions per game (5.7) in 2023, his rushing numbers have seen a significant downturn. In fact, his yards per touch (4.5) hit the lowest mark of his entire career, signaling potential warning signs of an impending decline. If this downward trend persists for the veteran running back, it could open up a substantial opportunity for Miller as he enters his second professional season. Furthermore, Kamara still has two years remaining on his current contract with the Saints, but his cap hit is set to skyrocket to $29 million in 2025. Consequently, the team will need to restructure this deal to mitigate their ongoing financial challenges.

At just 22 years old and now fully recovered from his major injury setbacks, Miller should enter 2024 at full strength. Given these favorable circumstances, it is reasonable to expect him to demonstrate that he is a more capable rusher than the aging Kamara. If he can establish himself as a more efficient runner and secure goal line responsibilities, he could exceed initial fantasy season expectations. While Jamaal Williams would profile to take on a similar role, Miller should easily surpass him in opportunities, particularly as Williams appears to be well past his prime. Consequently, it is imperative for Miller to secure a significantly more prominent role in the offense in his second year with the team. Furthermore, it is worth noting that an injury to Kamara in the upcoming season could present a substantial opportunity for Miller. Such an event would offer a direct pathway for him to showcase his ability as the team’s starter and force the Saints to make a decision about their future direction. Ultimately, Miller must prove to his team and dynasty managers that he possesses the skill set required to be the team’s primary running back in the foreseeable future. If he fails to see increased opportunities in the upcoming season, there is little reason for the team not to address the position in the draft or explore alternative options via free agency or trade.

While he may still have an opportunity to contend for the starting role in 2025 should Kamara retain it in 2024, Miller’s dynasty ultimatum is to finish as a top-35 running back in the upcoming season. Coincidentally, Tyjae Spears concluded as the WR35 in total points last year, encountering obstacles akin to what I envision for Miller in 2024. Spears served as the primary backup to the aging Derrick Henry for the Tennessee Titans but had a significant enough role to showcase glimpses of his potential and deliver several fantasy-relevant weeks. While Spears impressed last season, the team ultimately opted to sign Tony Pollard, dampening some excitement for Spears to assume a bell cow role in his sophomore campaign. While Spears may emerge as the more valuable of the two backs moving forward, it has certainly cast some doubt on dynasty managers who were hoping he would be the undisputed most valuable back to roster on the team. It is worth noting that a similar fate could await Miller, even if Kamara were to age out or switch teams. Given this, if a team in your league were to offer a first-round pick for Miller’s services, I would be strongly inclined to accept, despite the prosperous potential discussed. Alternatively, it might be advisable to hold onto him if offered a lesser return and see how his future plays out.

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos (24.2 y.o.)

Current Contract: Rookie (2021-2024), 4 yr(s) / $8,865,753

Free Agent: 2025 / UFA

The rise and fall of Javonte Williams’ dynasty value is nothing short of a travesty. After being selected in the second round by the Denver Broncos in the 2021 NFL Draft, Williams delivered an impressive rookie season in the Mile High City, emerging as one of the league’s most talented young running backs. Unfortunately, like many promising young backs who once showed immense potential, injuries have severely hindered his performance over the past couple of seasons.

Despite the impression that he has been in the league for a long time, Williams is still just 24 years old (younger than Zamir White by a few months) and has now fully recovered from the devastating knee injury that saw him tear his ACL, PCL, and LCL in 2022. His statistics were down last season, which was expected given the short recovery timeline from such a significant injury. While there remains hope that Williams can return to his former prowess, there are equal, if not greater, reasons to be concerned about his future dynasty outlook due to various metrics and potentially unfortunate circumstances surrounding his 2024 season and beyond.

Reflecting on his forgettable 2023 season, Williams managed just three rushing touchdowns and averaged only 3.6 yards per carry and 3.8 yards per touch. Despite these efficiency issues, he still received significant volume with 275 opportunities last season. Even with lackluster efficiency, Williams still managed to surpass 1,000 yards from scrimmage in 16 games. Before his injury, Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry over the first two seasons of his career. Now, two years removed from his knee injury, the hope is that Williams can return to his pre-injury efficiency levels, which metrics suggest is highly possible given his recovery timeline. However, even if he shows improvement in the upcoming season, several concerning factors could hinder his fantasy upside and dynasty outlook moving forward.

Williams enters the 2024 season in a contract year, playing under a coaching staff that did not draft him. It will be crucial for him to impress and prove he deserves a new deal to remain the team’s starting running back beyond this season. This challenge becomes even more daunting given the direction of the offense heading into 2024. Denver has finally moved on from the costly Russell Wilson experiment and handed the reins to rookie Bo Nix. While Nix has the potential to exceed expectations, he is still a rookie and was relatively unheralded throughout the draft process, despite being a first-round pick. Additionally, the team’s receiving corps is considered one of the least productive and unproven in the league, making touchdown opportunities scarce. This puts even more pressure on Williams to be significantly more productive with his touches in 2024 to help mitigate these potential obstacles.

While it is still possible, it might be challenging for Williams to see as many opportunities as he did last season. The emergence of undrafted free agent Jaleel McLaughlin has created concern about Williams’ potential to receive bell cow usage. In 2023, McLaughlin led all running backs in targets per route run (37%) and averaged 5.4 yards per carry. Despite his productive play and elite efficiency, his smaller stature will likely limit him to around 10-12 touches per game moving forward. However, his skills in the passing game could potentially hinder Williams’ weekly fantasy upside. Samaje Perine, although a potential cap casualty, saw a surprising number of opportunities last season. In fact, the only running backs with more receiving yards than Perine (455) in 2023 were Breece Hall (591), Christian McCaffrey (564), Rachaad White (549), Bijan Robinson (487), Travis Etienne (476), and Alvin Kamara (466). Even if Perine is cut, his high usage in the passing game while Williams was active could continue with another player on the roster in 2024. This role could be filled by undrafted free agent Blake Watson, who has been catching attention in deeper dynasty leagues. Watson was extremely productive at the University of Memphis, and Head Coach Sean Payton recently compared him to Alvin Kamara in the passing game. Additionally, the team drafted Audric Estimé in the fifth round, who could also carve out a role in the offense. Ultimately, while Williams might be the most talented running back on the team’s depth chart, several capable backs on the roster could vie for playing time in the upcoming season.

Given Williams’ contract year and the precarious circumstances that could negatively impact his 2024 performance, he must exceed expectations and overcome obstacles to achieve a highly productive season. Considering the recent trends in the running back market, it appears unlikely a team will invest significant money in him to be their starting running back if he has another inefficient season. Therefore, his dynasty ultimatum is to finish as a top-20 running back in 2024. This would be ten spots higher than his finish last season and his best fantasy finish since his rookie year in 2021 when he ranked as the RB17. Although his current cost in dynasty is far lower than it was pre-injury, it remains uncertain whether he can maintain a starting role with a team beyond this season. If you can acquire him at a low cost for the upcoming season, he has the potential to return RB2 value and can be a valuable depth piece for a championship-destined roster. However, this appears to be a calculated risk with a limited ceiling at this point in time.

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