The NFL MVP odds for 2024-25 move up and down, so our team makes sure to follow them and share fresh predictions regularly. Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens took home the trophy last season, but can he do it again?
With the NFL loaded with elite quarterbacks, the MVP race has never been hotter. That will be the case again heading into the 2024-2025 season with several top quarterbacks looking for their first-ever MVP trophy.
But who is the best value on the board? Which sleeper should everyone keep an eye on this season? Keep reading to find the answers!
NFL MVP 2024-25 Betting Odds
The following NFL MVP odds for 2024-25 are courtesy of Bovada:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | +350 |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | +450 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +600 |
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | +700 |
| Jayden Daniels (WSH) | +1200 |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | +1400 |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | +1600 |
| Sam Darnold (MIN) | +1800 |
| Jared Goff (DET) | +2000 |
| Jordan Love (GB) | +2500 |
The updated NFL MVP odds have experienced a shift in the online betting markets over the last two weeks. Patrick Mahomes (+350) remains the clear favorite to win MVP, but he has regressed from +275 to +350 since Week 5. Currently, the Chiefs quarterback has an implied probability of 22.2% to win MVP.
Elsewhere, Josh Allen’s MVP odds (+600) took a big hit following a 23-20 loss to the Texans at NRG Stadium two weeks ago. Allen, who was favored after the Bills got out to a 3-0 start, now has the third-best price at the best NFL betting sites. The Bills’ latest win over the Jets, 23-20, saw Allen’s MVP odds improve from +700 to +600, though.
Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson (+450) has surged after holding a +2800 price through the schedule’s first few weeks!
But who is the best bet on the board for the upcoming season? And who is a sleeper worth watching? Let’s dive into the favorites next.
You can find up-to-date odds to win NFL MVP at Bovada by navigating to All Sports > Football > NFL Awards & League Leaders > Most Valuable Player.
NFL MVP Betting Favorites for 2024-25
We have a few obvious candidates for the award, according to both the bookmakers and common sense. You simply can’t ignore them when betting on the NFL MVP, so let’s see what they have to offer.
Patrick Mahomes (+350)
In terms of overall value, there isn’t a more valuable quarterback in the NFL than Patrick Mahomes. The three-time Super Bowl champion is the No. 1 player in this position, and he’s been that for the last five seasons. He has also cashed in on a lucrative $450 million contract that pays him nearly $25,000 per hour!
Patrick Mahomes’ Super Bowl Workout pic.twitter.com/LZyNOhVJ8c
— Men’s Health Mag (@MensHealthMag) September 30, 2024
Has Mahomes looked like an MVP-caliber quarterback through five weeks? He has certainly looked in fine shape, but I can’t justify backing Kansas’ quarterback as the favorite at this moment.
Mahomes has passed for 1,235 yards, six touchdowns, and six interceptions on 69.4% completions. While what Mahomes is doing despite an array of injuries on the Chiefs is impressive, the MVP numbers haven’t translated.
Still, he is the NFL’s top quarterback, so it makes sense that he is the current favorite. He’s going to win another MVP award at some point. The only question is if it’s this year or later down the road.
Public sentiment was initially high on Mahomes’ 2024-25 NFL MVP odds this season, as he’s become a larger favorite over the last few months. After improving from +600 in the spring to +525,
Mahomes’ price dropped to +500, and then +275, after the Week 2 win over the Bengals. However, Mahomes’ odds to win NFL MVP have decreased from +275 to +350 over the last two weeks.
First Mahomes’ pick of the seasonpic.twitter.com/VMELYrpzgA
— The Sports Geek (@TheSports_Geek) September 6, 2024
The offense is banged up with injuries to RB Isiah Pacheco, WR Marquise Brown, and WR Rashee Rice. Rookie WR Xavier Worthy has developed into Mahomes’ favorite deep target. The long ball is something that Mahomes has lacked since Tyreek Hill left, but Worthy is beginning to fill the void.
In addition to high MVP aspirations, Mahomes and the Chiefs are favorites to win the 2025 AFC Championship to head back to the Super Bowl! Most certainly, the Chiefs and Mahomes will be a popular selection in The Sports Geek’s free NFL pick’em contest this year. Nevertheless, Mahomes’ odds to win NFL MVP aren’t much of a value proposition at +350.
Lamar Jackson (+450)
Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson is back in the MVP discussions after a fantastic performance in Week 4. Jackson’s NFL MVP odds have improved considerably this season. Previously a longshot at +2800, he is down to +450 to repeat as MVP.
In 2023-24, he won MVP with 49 of 50 first-place votes. This made Jackson the NFL’s first two-time unanimous MVP! He is back in contention, and the way I see it, Jackson should be the betting favorite to win the top individual award in the NFL.
The quarterback’s performance against the Bengals in Week 5 is a game-changer for the NFL MVP betting markets at sports betting sites. He passed for 348 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions in a wild 41-38 win in overtime. Jackson also ran for 55 yards on the ground to send his 2024-25 NFL MVP odds riding high.
Lamar Jackson just did thispic.twitter.com/FqfugGN9fz
— The Sports Geek (@TheSports_Geek) October 6, 2024
His price skyrocketed down to +600, and now he holds +450 odds after another strong performance in Week 6. The 2023-24 NFL MVP completed 76.9% of his passes for 323 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He also gained 40 yards rushing on the ground as a rusher. This performance moved Jackson ahead of Texans’ QB C.J. Stroud in the MVP betting markets.
Through Week 6, Jackson has connected for 1,529 yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions. For a quarterback that many people say can’t pass the ball, Jackson is doing just fine this season. He has also been efficient with the ball, completing 67% of his passes.
As expected, the dynamic quarterback’s rushing numbers have been strong, too. Jackson has rumbled for 403 yards on 6.3 yards per carry and two touchdowns. Aside from perhaps voter fatigue, Jackson is the MVP of the NFL right now. With the Ravens’ secondary struggling, expect his numbers to rise more.
The addition of RB Derrick Henry is putting a lot of stress on defenses, with Jackson having more room and opportunities to gallop. The play action has also been working to perfection for the Ravens. For your NFL MVP predictions, Jackson is tough to beat right now at +450!
Josh Allen (+600)
Buffalo Bills’ QB Josh Allen is back in the spotlight as a top-three contender for NFL MVP. Following back-to-back losses, Allen’s price to win MVP slumped from the top to +700. However, the public is warming back up to Allen after he went to MetLife Stadium and knocked off the New York Jets.
The multi-talented quarterback has passed for 1,160 yards, 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He’s the only MVP contender to not throw an interception this season. It’s going to happen, but Allen is enjoying this impressive stretch through Week 6.
Heading into Week 7, Allen has also rushed for 178 yards and three scores on the ground. His numbers are strong, that is not the issue with his MVP campaign. However, bettors are not as confident in the Bills as a team as they are in the Ravens and Chiefs.
This throw by Josh Allen is just absurdpic.twitter.com/O03XnPHfnh
— The Sports Geek (@TheSports_Geek) October 15, 2024
Currently, the Chiefs are favored on Super Bowl betting sites, while the Ravens have the second-shortest price. The Bills are tied for the fifth-best odds with the Texans and Vikings, so Allen isn’t viewed in the same favorable light as Mahomes and Jackson.
That being said, Allen should hang around in the MVP hunt, and at +1000, the Bills are one of the best value bets to win Super Bowl 59! This is something to consider when making your 2024-25 NFL MVP picks.
Best NFL MVP Award Sleepers in 2024-25
The NFL MVP award usually goes to a big-name quarterback on a great team. However, there have been several longshots over the last few seasons to take home this award. Here are some of the best sleepers to win the MVP award and their respective odds.
-
Baker Mayfield (+3300)
QB Baker Mayfield is certainly a longshot to win MVP, but Bovada has a generous price at +3300 that is tough to ignore. With a record of 4-2 and a good chance at the NFC South title, the Mayfield believers have a good argument for him.
In the Buccaneers’ latest loss, they were involved in a winnable game on Thursday Night Football in Week 5. Mayfield played great football, but a costly fumble from RB Bucky Irving and a collapse from the defense yielded a win to the Falcons. Nevertheless, Mayfield had a strong showing with three touchdowns through the air.
.@bakermayfield’s 4th TD pass to extend the lead to 10
📺: #TBvsNO on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/Otvr5YofHk— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024
The Bucs were also to bounce back with a resounding 51-27 win over the New Orleans Saints. Mayfield threw for four touchdowns, three interceptions, and 325 yards on 66.7% completions.
In total, this season, Mayfield has 1,489 yards passing, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He is also completing 70.9% of his passes!
Mahomes or Stroud can’t boast about those kinds of numbers. The difference is that the Chiefs and Texans are projected to finish ahead of the Buccaneers, so if Tampa can get hot, Mayfield has a case!
-
Kyler Murray (+4000)
For the first time in a long time, QB Kyler Murray looks happy to be playing football again. The Cardinals appear like a different team with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Murray on the field together. Murray is also developing a solid rapport with tight end Trey McBride in the passing game.
After getting blown out by the Commanders, Murray and the Cardinals went to the West Coast to defeat the 49ers in an upset 24-23. Murray led the Cardinals to 14 unanswered points to erase a 13-point deficit in the second half.
While it’s most certainly a longshot bet, if the Cardinals can find some consistency, Murray could be in MVP discussions in December. He has been comfortable and making quick decisions in the pocket.
The Cardinals have looked fantastic one week, and then a different squad the following week. Murray needs more stability from his teammates.
List of quarterbacks with 250+ rushing yards and 1,000+ passing yards this season:
— Kyler Murray
— Lamar Jackson
— Jayden Daniel’sThat’s it. pic.twitter.com/0Uq7sq5jaL
— Cardinals Muse (@CardsMuse) October 16, 2024
The former Sooner has passed for 1,186 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions. Additionally, Murray has recorded 261 yards rushing and a touchdown heading into Week 7. At +4000, Murray is worth a flier for your NFL MVP picks!
2024-25 NFL MVP Prediction and Betting Pick
Although offshore sportsbooks have Mahomes as the favorite, there is little value in the Chiefs’ QB at +350 odds. Instead, I recommend looking at Jackson, who is getting fantastic betting value to win MVP at +450!
In what has turned into a quarterback award, Jackson has been the most impressive quarterback thus far this season. He should continue to lead the Ravens to a likely AFC North title. The defense needs some work, but this should only elevate his offensive numbers.
The Ravens need Jackson more than ever with a leaky defense, so the numbers should continue to impress. I don’t expect the Ravens to play a conservative brand of football. Jackson and Henry must keep coming at defenses.
I like Stroud, but Jackson’s production and stats should eclipse the Texan, so he remains our top NFL MVP pick through Week 6 of the schedule!
Who Are You Backing in the NFL MVP Race?
I expect a tight race between Mahomes and Allen for the most prestigious individual award in football, and the NFL MVP odds for 2024-25 reflect that. Still, you should keep an eye on Stroud and some of the young guns.
Who are you backing this year? Even if you don’t see your favorite in the odds above, that’s because I only cut the list to the top 10 players. Bovada, one of the best sites for NFL betting online, features many more, so visit the sportsbook to place your wager and get a welcome bonus of up to $1,000 in the process!
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