2-Point Conversion: Here’s Why The Bucs Will Still Win The NFC South

It’s time for PewterReport.com’s 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game. Tampa Bay lost an overtime heartbreaker in primetime in Atlanta, 36-30.

The Bucs defense couldn’t stop Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense all night, and Tampa Bay’s offense sputtered in the second half and squandered a lead in the final moments by failing to run out the clock. Now the team is 3-2 heading into next week’s game at New Orleans.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Here’s Why The Bucs Will Still Win The NFC South

That was a brutal loss on Thursday Night Football – not just for the Bucs, but also for their fans.

The Tampa Bay players were steamed after blowing a fourth quarter lead – on both sides of the ball – and Bucs fans were angry and distraught over losing to a division rival that was picked by national pundits and the sportsbooks in Las Vegas to win the NFC South.

Not so fast.

The Falcons did not with the division on Thursday night. There’s still plenty of football to be played this season for the 3-2 Bucs.

The NFC South is still up for grabs, and in fact, the Bucs should still be the favorites to win it in my mind. Here’s why.

Tampa Bay had several opportunities to move to 4-1 with a win in Atlanta before losing 36-30 in overtime on a 46-yard catch-and-run by Falcons receiver KhaDarel Hodge. That put Kirk Cousins over 500 yards (509 yards) and made him a shoo-in for NFC Offensive Player of the Week with his fourth touchdown of the game.

The Falcons didn’t beat the Bucs. The Bucs beat the Bucs at the end by not making the plays necessary to hang on to a fourth quarter lead.

Thursday night’s game was reminiscent of last year’s horrific 39-37 loss at Houston where rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud carved up Bowles’ coverages for 470 yards, which set an NFL rookie record, and five touchdowns. And what happened at the end of the season?

The Bucs still won the NFC South in Week 18 – even rebounding from a dreadful 4-7 record at the end of the November.

Oh, the Falcons are better this year, right? Sure, they’ll likely finish better than the 7-10 record they’ve posted in each of the last three years. But will they get to 10 wins?

Both Atlanta and Tampa Bay have tough schedules ahead, but the Falcons still have to play the undefeated Vikings, the Commanders, Ravens, Cowboys, plus two more games against the Saints and Bucs. Can they win all of those games and avoid getting tripped up by the likes of the Broncos, Raiders and Dolphins on the road?

The key for Tampa Bay winning the division is to split with the Falcons, which means winning the creamsicle game at home in a few weeks, sweeping the Panthers again and at least splitting the two games with the Saints – starting next week in New Orleans. The Bucs did just that last year and were able to win the division with a 9-8 record. The guess here is that the NFC South champion will need to reach 10 wins this season – and it should be Tampa Bay, which already has three NFC wins in the bag.

With the exception of center Drew Dalman and middle linebacker Troy Andersen, the Falcons were nearly at full strength on Thursday night. The Bucs? Not so much.

Tampa Bay was without its best defender in Antoine Winfield Jr., its best pass-rushing defensive tackle in Calijah Kancey, its starting right tackle in Luke Goedeke, its emerging inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis (who is far better in coverage than K.J. Britt is), as well as wide receivers No. 3 and No. 4 on the depth chart in Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer. All but Dennis should return sooner rather than later, so help is on the way.

On a team that isn’t tackling well right now, Winfield Jr. is easily the best tackler, and his eventual return will certainly be welcomed. Not only will Winfield provide Bowles with a sure tackler who will prevent big third-down conversions and touchdowns, but also a key chess piece that can be moved around the field to create sacks, interceptions and force fumbles – all things the Bucs could use right now on defense. Bowles needs a difference-maker, and that’s exactly what Winfield is when healthy.

Josh Queipo provided some excellent analysis in a Pewter Report column titled “Bucs Have A BIG Middle Of The Field Problem On Defense” that’s worth reading and on target. Tampa Bay’s soft zone defense was exploited in the middle of the field repeatedly by Cousins on Thursday night. Bowles will have to get this sorted out, as the NFL is a copycat league and Saints quarterback Derek Carr, the Bucs’ next opponent, is taking notes for sure.

The guess here is that Tampa Bay deploys a dime defensive look with six defensive backs, including three safeties with either Christian Izien or Kaevon Merriweather platooning with inside linebacker K.J. Britt, who is a real liability in pass coverage. Or maybe it’s seeing if fellow linebacker J.J. Russell can be an upgrade in coverage over Britt. I trust that Bowles will solve this puzzle, but it was incredibly hard to do so on a very short week this time around.

While everyone points to the defense as the culprit for Thursday’s loss in Atlanta, the offense was just as bad in the second half, and played a contributing role in the defeat. After scoring 24 points by halftime, the Bucs managed just two field goals in the second half. Baker Mayfield had 131 yards and three touchdowns in the first half, but had just 49 passing yards in the second. Mike Evans, who had four catches for 49 yards and a pair of scores in the first half, was held to just one reception for 13 yards in the second half.

Still, we’ve seen this Liam Coen offense generate 30 points or more in three out of five games to start the season, and that’s encouraging for a rookie offensive coordinator. He’s proven to be a better play-caller than Dave Canales was at this juncture last year, and Coen is still learning on the job. He’ll get better as the season progresses.

Coen was taught a painful lesson about how to close out a game after the offense failed to pick up a first down or move into field goal position on the final drive after Lavonte David’s interception that should’ve sealed the win. I get the idea to try to run the ball or use screen passes to try to pick up the first down to make the Falcons burn their timeouts. It’s sound in theory.

But the Bucs paid $100 million to Mayfield this offseason, and Coen’s own mantra is “players over plays.” Mayfield, Evans and Chris Godwin are better players than Rachaad White or Bucky Irving. And yes, the missed facemask call on Irving was huge.

Simply put, Mayfield needs to have the ball in his hands to win out games, especially when the Falcons switched to a 6-1 front to try to stop the running game on that final drive. You don’t see Andy Reid taking the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands on the final drive. Coen can’t do the same thing with Mayfield moving forward.

Bucs left tackle Tristan Wirfs was justifiably ticked off that the offense couldn’t run the clock out and win the game with 1:44 remaining.

“It was a back-and-forth game,” Wirfs said. “We had every opportunity to close it out and we didn’t. It sucks. We’ve got three days to let it steep. It should hurt. It should suck. We’ll see them in a couple weeks. We’ve got the Saints next week and then they’re going to Tampa couple weeks after that. You know you’ve got to move on.

“It sucks, you know? I’m pissed. I’m not happy about it because it was right there. They gave it to us. They said – you know they threw the Lavonte pick – they said, ‘Here you go. You guys win.’ We should have done it.”

The Bucs’ pass rush is showing signs of life, as is Tampa Bay’s running game. And this team has the coaching staff that knows how to win the NFC South along with the most talented roster in the division. If this Bucs team can get healthy – and most importantly, stay healthy – and finish no worse than 4-2 in the division like they did last year – there is no reason why Tampa Bay can’t successfully defend another division title.

STATEMENT 2. Rough Night For Bucs Rookies

It was the first primetime game for Tampa Bay’s rookie class and it turned out to be rough night in Atlanta. Center Graham Barton had his worst game of the year, giving up a critical sack on third down in the red zone in the fourth quarter that led to a Bucs field goal. The first-round pick also had a critical holding call on second down on Tampa Bay’s final drive that moved the team out of field goal range and ultimately led to a punt. Barton was the lowest-graded Bucs player on offense (39.5), according to PFF.

Running back Bucky Irving, the team’s fourth-round pick, had a few nice runs, but also had a costly fumble at the Atlanta 32 late in the fourth quarter that cost the Bucs a chance at more points. Irving had nine carries for 44 yards (4.9 avg.), including a 16-yarder on his first carry, in addition to two catches for 12 yards, but the fumble proved to be costly.

Rookie nickelback Tykee Smith also had his worst game of his young career, allowing two touchdowns. It wasn’t all bad for Smith, who led the Bucs in tackles with 11, but playing some bad technique on a few scoring plays proved to be costly.

“He had a bunch of tackles,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said. “For the first time he had two or three mistakes since he’s been here. You forget he’s a rookie. He had two or three things he could do better, but he’s a tough player for us. He’s a smart player, we rely on him to do a lot – he does a lot.

“He’s more like an outside [linebacker] when they run the ball because he can take on guards and tackles as well as tight ends so he’s very productive for us and we just have to clean up a few things.”

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Why Did Todd Bowles’ Defense Look So Bad In Atlanta?

There were several reasons. Allowing any quarterback to pass for 500 yards and four touchdowns is terrible, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise that it was Kirk Cousins who carved up the Bucs defense, leading the Falcons to a “You like that?!” come-from-behind win as he did with the Redskins back in Washington against Lovie Smith’s defense in 2015.

Todd Bowles could’ve used the help of inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis and All-Pro free safety Antoine Winfield Jr. on Thursday night in Atlanta. Dennis is likely done for the year with a shoulder injury, while Winfield is getting closer to returning from his foot injury. Inside linebackers K.J. Britt and aging linebacker Lavonte David were repeatedly targeted over the middle because neither has ideal speed to truly cover some routes the way they need to be covered.

“We want to have more speed on the field at certain times,” Bowles said. “K.J is a very good zone player but at times we want to have some speed guys on the field and the communication has to be better, especially with the safeties. When we lost Jordan [Whitehead], we lost some of the communication aspect of it and then we just missed some drops and missed some tackles.”

Bowles was being generous about Britt, who was Pro Football Focus’ worst-graded Bucs defender with a 38.3 grade, including a 46.8 coverage grade.

Throw in the fact that the Bucs just played in a brutally hot and humid game at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday while the Falcons beat the Saints in an air conditioning dome and that was yet another factor as to why Tampa Bay’s defense faded in the fourth quarter. Tampa Bay’s defense came into the game tired on a short week, and that fatigue showed with sloppy tackling and coverage that just wasn’t tight enough.

Making matters worse was the fact that Bowles’ unit only forced one turnover – an interception by David – and only one punt. Otherwise, the defense was on the field for a staggering 81 plays – 30 more than Tampa Bay’s offense had – including the final 13 snaps of the game in both the fourth quarter and overtime. When the Falcons won the toss in overtime and elected to receive, the Bucs defense was out of gas and it showed, unfortunately.

Because of the injury to Winfield, Bowles couldn’t go to a dime package that would’ve taken Britt off the field and replaced him with an extra safety.

“When [Winfield] comes back, we have those types of packages in, but with the injuries, we can’t afford to use those right now,” Bowles said.

Tampa Bay’s defense had 11 QB hits and four sacks, so the pressure on Cousins was adequate. It was mostly loose coverage that doomed the Bucs defense and allowed Cousins to thrive.

QUESTION 2. Are We Seeing The Emergence Of Logan Hall – The Pass Rusher?

The Bucs certainly hope so. Tampa Bay has waited three years for Logan Hall to play as well as he did on Thursday night when he officially recorded five quarterback hits and a career-high two sacks. This may not be a fluke either, as Hall recorded his first sack of the season last week against the Eagles and now leads the team with three in five games.

Nobody had Hall leading Tampa Bay on their bingo cards at this juncture, but it’s real. Hall has looked like an absolute bully in the middle of the Bucs defense over the last two games.

Yet is it sustainable? Or will Hall go back to being the invisible man he’s been too often since being the team’s first pick in the 2022 NFL Draft?

“Yeah, it is sustainable,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said of Hall’s recent play. “He’s coming on. We always knew he was a good athlete, but it took time to get his pass rush things down. He does a lot of talking to Vita [Vea], he did a lot of talking to [Calijah] Kancey on the sideline, of how to try to attack these guys and what he wants to do with them – less swim technique and more hands to power and then he’s using his moves at the end and his athleticism.

“I think it’s sustainable. I think he’s coming on every week, and he sees it now, so that’s giving him more confidence and we just look forward to him getting better.”

After not recording a sack from the interior defensive line over the first three games, between Hall’s three sacks and Vita Vea’s two, Tampa Bay is now getting more pressure and more production inside. Just wait until Calijah Kancey comes back, too.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Tampa Bay Gets Much-Needed Division Win In New Orleans

The Buccaneers will have 10 days before their next game at New Orleans to rest, recover, rehab and heal up before playing a “gotta have it” game against the Saints. Tampa Bay can’t afford to lose two in a row, drop to .500 and fall to 0-2 in the NFC South should the team lose in NOLA.

The 2-2 Saints play the Chiefs in Kansas City on Monday Night Football and could suffer their third straight defeat of the year. Arrowhead is a tough place to play, especially in primetime when Patrick Mahomes’ magic seems to be at its best. And keep in mind that the Chiefs are truly a defensive team this year and the Saints have struggled to score points the last two games after putting up over 40 points in the first two victories of the season.

Now it’s the Saints’ turn to have to play on a short week. We’ll see if Todd Bowles and Liam Coen can use the extra time to prep for New Orleans and get Tampa Bay back on track. I still believe in this Bucs team and you should, too. The unthinkable loss to Denver was far worse to absorb and process than Thursday’s night loss at Atlanta.

PREDICTION 2. Injury Bug Will Keep Biting The Bucs – All Season Long

Some years the injury bug just doesn’t bite. It’s no coincidence that the Bucs’ two Super Bowl seasons came in years where the team was as healthy as ever in 2002 and 2020. Last year was relatively injury-free in Tampa Bay as well, outside of Matt Feiler’s knee injury, Calijah Kancey’s calf (the other one) and cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean being banged up.

This year, it’s a different story. And every game it’s a different injury – or two – to a different Buccaneer – or two. Several key Bucs have missed several games already and a few more got banged up in the Thursday loss at Atlanta. Strong safety Jordan Whitehead and outside linebackers Markees Watts and Yaya Diaby suffered injuries – although Diaby returned.

This just doesn’t seem like the year where the football gods are smiling on Tampa Bay. I don’t think the injury bug is going to be repelled anytime soon. That doesn’t mean that the Bucs can’t win 10 games, make the playoffs and even win the division. But just as we saw in 2021, the year the team won a franchise-best 13 games, untimely injuries to key players can derail a Super Bowl run.

That was the case when Pro Bowl right tackle Tristan Wirfs and 1,000-yard wide receiver Chris Godwin missed the NFC Divisional playoff game versus the Rams. In the end, this year’s injury-riddled Bucs won’t make it to the Super Bowl, unfortunately.