2-Point Conversion: Bucs, Todd Bowles At A Crossroads In Carolina

It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column, which features two big statements, two probing questions and two bold predictions.

The Bucs blew a chance at winning the NFC South title on Sunday losing to the Saints in uninspired fashion, 23-13. New Orleans recorded four takeaways on defense and were the more physical team in jumping out to a 20-0 lead in the second half before a late comeback attempt by Tampa Bay fell short.

The Saints improved to 8-8, but the 8-8 Bucs still hold the tiebreaker advantage and can clinch the NFC South with a win in Carolina over the 2-14 Panthers. Tampa Bay should be favored, but both quarterbacks – Baker Mayfield and Carolina’s Bryce Young – were injured in their respective games on Sunday.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Bowles, Bucs At A Crossroads In Carolina

Credit Bucs head coach Todd Bowles for owning up to Sunday’s year-end, 23-13 loss at the hand of the division rival Saints – a loss that could ultimately cost him his job.

“Our coaches have got to come up with a better gameplan on both sides of the ball, and the players have to play it better,” Bowles said on Sunday. “We were off kilter from the start. They did a good job manufacturing a drive down the field keeping us off balance. They did a good job getting turnovers. They did what they were supposed to do, and came in here to do it, and we didn’t.

“We’ve got to be ready, and we have to execute. Doesn’t matter who we played today – a good team, a bad team, a college team, a high school team – we wouldn’t have won the game.”

The Saints won a game the Bucs were supposed to win.

That’s the feeling that began to creep into the AdventHealth Training Center during Tampa Bay’s four-game winning streak over the last month. To Bowles and the Bucs’ credit, they did the things necessary to win those games – narrow victories against division foes Atlanta and Carolina, in addition to more impressive wins at Green Bay and against a beat up Jacksonville team last week at home.

When the Bucs were up 30-0 in the second half against the Jaguars on Christmas Eve it seemed like the team had arrived. That Tampa Bay could cruise to six straight wins and finish with a red hot, 10-7 record and have some real momentum heading into the postseason.

Good coaches find what’s working and keep doing it.

But great coaches understand that as a team advances towards the postseason in late December that it gets harder, and it’s time to dig even deeper.

I’m not ready to call Saints head coach Dennis Allen a great coach, but he certainly coached like one this past week. And on Sunday he thoroughly out-coached Todd Bowles.

Allen had his team practice in full pads on Wednesday. Per the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams are allowed 14 padded practices throughout the season, but 11 must occur within the first 11 weeks of the season. That leaves three padded practices for the remaining seven weeks.

Allen saved one of those three for the Wednesday prior to the Bucs game because he wanted to out-physical Tampa Bay in the trenches.

That’s exactly what happened on Sunday as the Saints dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage. New Orleans held on to the ball for nearly 14 more minutes and won the battle on third down. The Saints converted 8-of-18 (44.4%) on third down and held the Bucs to just 2-of-8 (25%) third down conversions.

Coaching is as much about psychology and understanding how each week is different and how each game must be prepared for differently as it is about X’s and O’s, game plans and managing the clock on Sundays. It’s about recognizing how a team continues to evolve throughout a season and knowing which buttons to push to get optimum performance.

It seemed like winning the NFC South was inevitable for the Bucs heading into Sunday’s game. Bowles should have recognized that his team was beginning to develop a “just show up and win” attitude and should have done something about it.

Instead, the Bucs were clearly not ready to play against the Saints in a game that should have meant everything with so much on the line.

I’m not saying that Bowles should have necessarily had a fully-padded practice on Wednesday too, but the Bucs have had nothing but walk-throughs each Wednesday for the last month and weren’t prepared for the type of physicality the Saints brought to Raymond James Stadium.

That’s a bad look for a head coach that now has a 16-17 record in two seasons in Tampa Bay, and must now beat a 2-14 Panthers team in Carolina to win the NFC South. But even if the Bucs do, and finish 9-8 this season, do you think the Glazers still feel good about Todd Bowles and his team’s chances of doing anything in the postseason this year – or any year moving forward – based on what happened on Sunday?

If Bowles’ Bucs can’t win a downtrodden division that has not featured a single team that has finished with a winning record over the last two years one has to wonder if he’s the right guy to lead this team moving forward.

Bowles and the Bucs are at a crossroads this week at Carolina. To have any chance to staying on as head coach the Bucs must beat the Panthers and claim another NFC South championship. A loss on Sunday and Bowles will almost assuredly be fired for finishing 8-9 again and showing no improvement.

But if I’m the Glazers I’m demanding that Bowles show he can not only win another hat and t-shirt – but that he can actually win a playoff game, too. Otherwise Bowles’ overall record in Tampa Bay would be 17-17 in the regular season with a win in Carolina, and could very well be 0-2 in two home playoff games.

And that’s simply not good enough.

STATEMENT 2. Bucs Leaders Stunned After Stunningly Bad Performance

Todd Bowles ultimately has to take responsibility for Sunday’s 23-13 loss to the Saints because he’s the Bucs head coach, but Tampa Bay’s team captains deserve their share of the blame, too. After the game linebacker Lavonte David was stunned at what just happened with a chance to win the NFC South division title on the line.

“We came out very flat and [weren’t] executing,” David said. “It’s disappointing for me to say, but we [weren’t] ready today. I don’t know for what reason. With everything at stake, we weren’t ready today. I wasn’t ready as a leader to get everybody ready and going. We’re definitely going to have to get ready for next week. That’s the good thing about it is we’ve got another opportunity next week and we’re going to learn from this one.”

Left tackle Tristan Wirfs spoke up at halftime after the Saints opened up a 17-0 lead and held the Bucs offense to just 44 total yards in the first half.

“I tried saying something at halftime to everybody to get everyone going a little more,” Wirfs said. “In the first half everyone came out flat and that was unacceptable, especially at this point in the season and in a game like this.”

When asked what Wirfs said at halftime, he replied: “Hey, this is a division game. This was for a third straight division title. We came out looking like that. I said that’s unacceptable.

“We’ve got to do something different. Next week it’s for the marbles you know. There’s no ‘next week for the division title [after that],’ so we have to put it behind us. We have to move forward look forward to next week and do the best we can to come home with a hat and a t-shirt.”

I asked Wirfs after the game if complacency had set in during the Bucs’ four-game winning streak.

“I don’t think complacency is the right word,” Wirfs said after a long pause to think about the question. “It’s close, but I think [the term complacency] is a little too far. It feels good winning … I wouldn’t take it as far as complacency. All of us are happy to be where we’re at, but we still have to come out and fight and be scrappy and be chippy like we have been.”

Wirfs said the team was definitely flat at the beginning of the game, which was inexcusable.

“Yeah, we were flat today – absolutely,” Wirfs said. “We can’t have that, especially in a division game, especially the Saints, especially for a title – just for everything. There are a lot of things that made this an important game, a big game. You can’t come out like that.

“We have to do everything we can to get it fixed because it was pretty shitty. It was shitty for everyone. Not a fun way to spend New Year’s Eve. It sucks.”

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. How Bad Is Baker Mayfield’s Rib Injury?

It’s pretty bad, and one could see how gingerly Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield was walking after the game. Mayfield took a late hit from Saints safety Tyrann Mathieu during Tampa Bay’s two-point conversion attempt late in the fourth quarter. He finished the game, but was extremely sore afterwards and was late to his press conference as he was getting x-rays, which came back negative.

“Ribs don’t feel too great right now. X-rays, as of right now, are negative so that’s good but we’ll do more exams to see what’s really bugging me,” Mayfield said. “But, don’t have anything right now besides just sore.”

Mayfield is as tough as they come as a quarterback, but an upper rib injury like the one he suffered on Sunday could affect everything from his throwing motion, velocity and accuracy come Sunday – if he can play. Yet the Bucs QB anticipates he’ll be able to start in Carolina.

“It’ll get easier throughout the week,” Mayfield said. “The first few days are always the worst. I’ve had a few broken ribs here and there and obviously, like I said, nothing showed to that extent as of right now so yeah, I’ll be able to deal with it and go from there.”

Bucs left tackle Tristan Wirfs sounded off on the Saints’ second dirty hit in Mayfield this season. Two Saints defensive lineman went high and low on Mayfield back in the Bucs’ Week 4 win at New Orleans.

“Yeah, I am [tired of it],” Wirfs said. “No. 93 did it in the first game and Tyrann Mathieu did it in this game and he’s chirping at the refs saying he didn’t do it. But that’s part of football, and Bake’s a tough guy – a tough bastard. I can’t say anything else about it.”

Mayfield definitely wants to play against his former team this week for personal reasons, in addition to having one last chance at winning the NFC South title.

“My mentality playing against the Panthers – the guys in the locker room are great,” Mayfield said. “For other reasons, I’ll be extremely motivated to play. Obviously, the division is on the line. There’s many things. Everyone in our locker room should be motivated, not just me, personally.”

QUESTION 2. Was This The Worst Loss Of The Year For The Bucs?

Because so much was riding on the line at home, Tampa Bay’s 23-13 loss to New Orleans was indeed the worst loss of the year. The Bucs’ 39-37 loss at Houston might have been the most gut-wrenching defeat because of how it happened with just seconds left. But getting pummeled 20-0 into the third quarter and simply outclassed by a division rival on Tampa Bay’s home turf with the division on the line hurts pretty bad.

Making matters worse for the Bucs was that two of their best, most consistent and reliable players – punter Jake Camarda and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. – had terrible games. Camarda shanked several punts and wound up with just a 41.7 average and a 36-yard net. He also had a short kickoff in the second half that was returned 27 yards. Perhaps Camarda is dealing with an unknown injury.

Winfield, who has been playing at an All-Pro level all season, didn’t make any splash plays on Sunday. In fact, he gave up a 32-yard catch by tight end Juwan Johnson and a 22-yard touchdown to tight end Taysom Hill.

Rookie wide receiver Trey Palmer had his best statistical game of the season with four catches for 84 yards and a touchdown. But after making a 54-yard catch late in the fourth quarter, Palmer stumbled and fumbled the ball as he hit the ground, which led to the Bucs’ fourth turnover of the day. Three of those turnovers happened in Saints territory.

Palmer’s fumble was an epitome of how nothing seemed to go right for the Bucs on Sunday.

“Yeah, it’s just one of those days where nothing seems to get going,” quarterback Baker Mayfield said of the play. “And then when we had a chance – yeah, couldn’t get it. One of those days where you look at it and see the things that went wrong and be like ‘Alright, we’ve got to get it fixed. Here’s where it went wrong’ and move on.”

Bucs left tackle Tristan Wirfs added: “It’s all 22 of us – all 11 guys on offense and all 11 guys on defense. There’s nobody to point the finger at. We all have to be better.”

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Bucs Win In Carolina

It takes the final game of the year – and an opponent with a 2-14 record – but the Bucs get their hat and t-shirt by beating the Panthers in Carolina. Tampa Bay is the better, more talented team, and it will be a close win similar to the Bucs’ 21-18 victory over the Panthers a few weeks ago.

Yet if Baker Mayfield can’t play due to his rib injury or gets hurt in the game or leaves due to ineffectiveness all bets are off. I’m not saying Kyle Trask couldn’t get the job done, but that’s a very tough situation for an unproven quarterback to enter with a division title and the playoffs hanging in the balance – not to mention the head coach’s fate.

PREDICTION 2. Todd Bowles Gets Fired At Season’s End

Todd Bowles is a good man. I’m not calling for him to be fired. Whatever happens will happen. He’s going to keep his job or lose his job based on his win-loss column – not any of my columns on PewterReport.com.

Having said that, I just get the sense that the Glazers will move on from Bowles, who went 8-9 in Tom Brady’s final season, and will finish either 8-9 or 9-8 this year in the dismal NFC South. Barely winning a bad division two years in a row isn’t a badge of honor, especially when it comes down to the wire both seasons.

Bowles has had to navigate a coaching staff he inherited and wasn’t all too fond of last year, and a dire salary cap situation this year and having to play a bunch of rookies as a result. He needs to be commended for accepting those challenges and doing the best he could.

But can’t Tampa Bay do better? Shouldn’t the Bucs demand better?

Sunday’s home loss with the division on the line was a very bad look. Tampa Bay looked totally unprepared and not ready to play. Had Bowles’ Bucs already wrapped up the division earlier or had a two- or three-game cushion atop the NFC South it would be a different story.

It’s hard to imagine Tampa Bay winning a home playoff game against a better team like Dallas, Philadelphia or Detroit – all currently have 11-5 records. But we’ll see what happens.